NEGa Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 5 hours ago, Lookout said: yeah not good...the euro takes the core of whats left of the strongest winds right across here. Irma was such a unique case that it's hard to believe that we could do it again just one year later. Unfortunately a lot of people lost power for days on end and that was just a tropical depression/weak tropical storm by the time it got to the al/ga border. hopefully it will only be a minimal hurricane at landfall and it wont' be as bad. Well this new track was weird to wake up lol. I thought Irma was a one time deal - if this were to happen again a year later I would be flabbergasted. Since it’s 5 days out I hope the track shifts again. I love wild wx but Irma did a lot of damage around here and I had no power for 5 or 6 days. The aftermath clean up was not fun lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 18 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: That's an awesome pic. Is it Wrightsville beach? My father was in the eye wall of Hazel, I was in the eye wall of Fran. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 I imagine some strengthening today as it looks to have overcome that small area of shear and is looking much more organized with a good eyewall and has some big thunderstorms expanding north and west of the eyeball even further out now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 1 minute ago, GunBlade said: I imagine some strengthening today as it looks to have overcome that small area of shear and is looking much more organized with a good eyewall and has some big thunderstorms expanding north and west of the eyeball even further out now. agree, western eyewall looks really good now, recon about to head thru it too, lets see how the winds have responded. https://weather.us/satellite/692-w-301-n/top-alert-superhd-1min/20180912-1243z.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BK Rambler Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Tweet from Joe Bastardi a short while ago: "new daily update is on, not behind paywall scroll down, No change to 1 week idea up till Cape Fear but after that Have made a change to end game. Lets see if its the only one Believe the new ridge will force this southwest and euro will win" Joe Bastardi (@BigJoeBastardi) September 12, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, BK Rambler said: Tweet from Joe Bastardi a short while ago: "new daily update is on, not behind paywall scroll down, No change to 1 week idea up till Cape Fear but after that Have made a change to end game. Lets see if its the only one Believe the new ridge will force this southwest and euro will win" Joe Bastardi (@BigJoeBastardi) September 12, 2018 of course joe had to put the loop with a possible emergence off the northeast coast lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Still debating if I'm going to leave Jacksonville or not for the storm. The visible floater of the Goes-East is stunning. If I don't leave I'm sure I'll have some crazy videos for you all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alhooks13 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Unless something dramatically changes, I'm staying put in Kill Devil Hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Staying in Charleston, but really curious about storm surge. It's too early to start talking about that, unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 I'm staying put here in Orangeburg, further inland so not as much winds but I'm interested in the rain totals 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 16 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: of course joe had to put the loop with a possible emergence off the northeast coast lol. I would love to see that track. It loops it in a complete circle whereas on day 10 it's back on the SC coast. With cool air pushing southward it would then turn into a nor'easter and head up the coast. That would be some fun tracking.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 @SENC Are you staying put in Wrightsville? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 The modeling is fairly consistent with bringing it into or near the coast in SE NC. After that, with the Euro Ensemble members continuing to trend south over South Carolina (only 1 of the 51 members is now north of Columbia), IMO we are going to see the other modeling this morning continue to move south after the initial approach into SE NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 1 hour ago, NEGa said: Well this new track was weird to wake up lol. I thought Irma was a one time deal - if this were to happen again a year later I would be flabbergasted. Since it’s 5 days out I hope the track shifts again. I love wild wx but Irma did a lot of damage around here and I had no power for 5 or 6 days. The aftermath clean up was not fun lol I would be too quite honestly as storms moving northwest through ga are incredibly rare and to have two storms in back to back years like that would be incredible. There have only been a couple ever recorded. But even if it makes landfall in sc and tracks west, it would be amazing. In fact, i can only find one which made landfall in nc and the remnant low ended up in north ga way back in 1913 but it was a cat one and went well inland before getting here.. ( https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/). So i'm really curious what it would be like if it makes landfall say near charleston and tracks west from there. Even with that track, the mountains would help compress the wind field and winds across the western carolinas and north ga could be quite high. Of course if it goes inland in nc before the stall and southwest/west turn we wouldn't have to worry too much about winds. All i'm hoping for is some rain, it's actually gotten quite dry here. Do not want to go through all those hours of sustained winds, knocked down trees, and power outages. I got incredibly lucky i didn't lose power with irma and i sort of doubt i would be that lucky again if something similar happened. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hrtsdsn Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 What a crazy storm. With this lower track, what kind of rain totals are we looking at? I’m east of Charlotte.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 2 hours ago, cmh90 said: Given the new updates do you still feel that this is a possibility? Obviously feels have nothing to do with weather forecasting but something just doesn’t feel right about all of this. Sure most models still bring the center up to just off SE NC.....again 50-100 miles will make a huge difference on things for a lot of us, and the models could easily be wrong about the actual stall spot. The models almost all have the storm headed right for MHX then stall it out in Onslow Bay just NE of ILM, then it sits for a bit then it heads SW, it stops about 50-100 miles south of us so any change in that point N would be obviously change our impact... it would not take much error for it to be the difference between 40-70 mph gust and 8-10" of rain and 70-100 mph gust and 10-20" of rain here..or if the SW motions is more W after the stall that would keep us in the heavier winds and rain longer...the current model runs still put us within 100 miles of the center on the N and NE side so winds gusting 50-70 would still be likely and with the stall it could be a long duration span with winds hitting 50-70 so comparable to Irene or Matthew in that regard, also though if the stall happens 50-100 miles sooner and we get almost nothing here.....this approach angle and slowing down will make it nerve wracking for the coast and eitehr way Thur-Sat is going to be a long 48 hrs for a lot of us....so I would be cautiously optimistic that we wont see much more than 40-60 mph gust and 10" of rain. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 This hurricane, being the major hurricane that it is and forward motion this morning of 17mph, roaring into Onslow Bay and coming to a relatively abrupt stop and pivot if it occurs as modeled is really something to behold. I will never complain about a high pressure ridge again and always remember this time. I hope everyone fares well and stays out of the eye wall effects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 14 minutes ago, Lookout said: I would be too quite honestly as storms moving northwest through ga are incredibly rare and to have two storms in back to back years like that would be incredible. There have only been a couple ever recorded. But even if it makes landfall in sc and tracks west, it would be amazing. In fact, i can only find one which made landfall in nc and the remnant low ended up in north ga way back in 1913 but it was a cat one and went well inland before getting here.. ( https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/). So i'm really curious what it would be like if it makes landfall say near charleston and tracks west from there. Even with that track, the mountains would help compress the wind field and winds across the western carolinas and north ga could be quite high. Of course if it goes inland in nc before the stall and southwest/west turn we wouldn't have to worry too much about winds. All i'm hoping for is some rain, it's actually gotten quite dry here. Do not want to go through all those hours of sustained winds, knocked down trees, and power outages. I got incredibly lucky i didn't lose power with irma and i sort of doubt i would be that lucky again if something similar happened. thats for sure. we had some rain over the weekend ,but its been pretty dry here too lately (although through July it seemed to be raining every day). what is even more interesting in the track is the storm moving sw over the Gulf Stream. if I recall, many storms (hurricanes and noreasters) get a little nudge to the north as they approach the coast. to have it move sw over the gulf stream seems a bit odd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 5 minutes ago, Jet Stream Rider said: This hurricane, being the major hurricane that it is and forward motion this morning of 17mph, roaring into Onslow Bay and coming to a relatively abrupt stop and pivot if it occurs as modeled is really something to behold. I will never complain about a high pressure ridge again and always remember this time. I hope everyone fares well and stays out of the eye wall effects. Its been my experience that storms approaching NC almost always correct NE a bit that last 12-24 hrs.....though let me add a obligatory "this is a different setup and every storm is different" statement to that , still I think if there are any shifts in the short term (so Thur noon into Fri morning) they will be to the north either with the stall itself or a more west or WNW drift instead of WSW drift....as the models see the block isnt as strong as they are seeing it as now.....or the ridge holds on a little longer etc... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 9 minutes ago, NEGa said: thats for sure. we had some rain over the weekend ,but its been pretty dry here too lately (although through July it seemed to be raining every day). what is even more interesting in the track is the storm moving sw over the Gulf Stream. if I recall, many storms (hurricanes and noreasters) get a little nudge to the north as they approach the coast. to have it move sw over the gulf stream seems a bit odd I am absolutely amazed at how quick the grass has died here. It looks like it's been dry all summer, which of course it hasn't..at all. last few runs of the hwrf would mean some impressive totals with tremendous upslope flow into the mountains and it would likely continue even as the storm moves into tn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 1 minute ago, downeastnc said: Its been my experience that storms approaching NC almost always correct NE a bit that last 12-24 hrs.....though let me add a obligatory "this is a different setup and every storm is different" statement to that , still I think if there are any shifts in the short term (so Thur noon into Fri morning) they will be to the north either with the stall itself or a more west or WNW drift instead of WSW drift....as the models see the block isnt as strong as they are seeing it as now.....or the ridge holds on a little longer etc... Yes, and any slight change will have rather large ramifications inland as you have noted. Thursday night and Friday will be nerve wracking. We are not out of the woods yet, and I know many are still in the thick of it, but there is a chance. Carolina Beach, Kure Beach, Wrightsville Beach, the whole of Topsail Island look to be ravaged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 16 minutes ago, Lookout said: I would be too quite honestly as storms moving northwest through ga are incredibly rare and to have two storms in back to back years like that would be incredible. There have only been a couple ever recorded. But even if it makes landfall in sc and tracks west, it would be amazing. In fact, i can only find one which made landfall in nc and the remnant low ended up in north ga way back in 1913 but it was a cat one and went well inland before getting here.. ( https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/). So i'm really curious what it would be like if it makes landfall say near charleston and tracks west from there. Even with that track, the mountains would help compress the wind field and winds across the western carolinas and north ga could be quite high. Of course if it goes inland in nc before the stall and southwest/west turn we wouldn't have to worry too much about winds. A couple examples of interest Hurricane 5 in 1906 Hurricane 4 in 1913 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1906_Atlantic_hurricane_season https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1913_Atlantic_hurricane_season 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, Jet Stream Rider said: Yes, and any slight change will have rather large ramifications inland as you have noted. Thursday night and Friday will be nerve wracking. We are not out of the woods yet, and I know many are still in the thick of it, but there is a chance. Carolina Beach, Kure Beach, Wrightsville Beach, the whole of Topsail Island look to be ravaged. Not that it is the horse to bet on, but the CMC highlights this possibility. I'm genuinely curious to watch how the ridge will actually stop this thing on a dime like the models show. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pdw Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Hello, I am just a regular person that knows nothing about weather but I am located in Middle Georgia and was just wanting to know if I should be worried about my area experiencing any bad weather other than having a few wind gusts and moderate rain. I know the track is very uncertain and it is still too early to make decisions on an absolute path but I was wondering if this can turn into something really bad for Georgia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 8 minutes ago, pdw said: Hello, I am just a regular person that knows nothing about weather but I am located in Middle Georgia and was just wanting to know if I should be worried about my area experiencing any bad weather other than having a few wind gusts and moderate rain. I know the track is very uncertain and it is still too early to make decisions on an absolute path but I was wondering if this can turn into something really bad for Georgia. Welcome and most likely you will probably see lots of rain and some windy conditions but that should be about it. Just keep watching as things can change in the next day or so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 GFS Ensemble Trend Loop - strengthening anomaly centers with the trough off Pacific NW coast and ridge over the Great Lakes....so the trend is for more blocking and less steering flow, making the stall scenario as it approaches the coast more and more likely. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Either way, the coastal beaches are in trouble. Shear looks really limited on this one as it approaches the coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 ^^ I'm sure everything about that map will operate in reverse in the winter. 6 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTPGiants Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 I know it's the NAM, but do we care at all that it seems to keep a bit more of a northerly run? It's shaping up less on 12z, but still north of global models. In theory we're inside its range... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 National Hurricane Center TAFB - "Wave heights to 83 ft were measured early this morning under the NE quadrant of Hurricane Florence." https://twitter.com/NHC_TAFB/status/1039882107399622657 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now