Jet Stream Rider Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 8 minutes ago, downeastnc said: This GFS run just shows how much a 75-100 mile change can make, between 54 and 60 it slams on the brakes barely stopping before landfalling in Onslow Bay if it goes another 50-100 miles before stopping it changes things for a lot of people inland.....and that 100 miles is well within the margin of error in the 50 hr range.... A storm that strong even the little wobbles in Onslow bay will make a difference inland. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Still moving SW just inland approaching the GA border at hour 114. Edit: Turns West into GA at hour 120. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justicebork Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 This cane is destined to become the first tropical cyclone to cross the equator or something 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Here you go guys... https://mobile.twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/1039721340192935937 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 15 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Don't think this run will take it as far to the SW still spinning on same spot off Jacksonville NC at 78. Well I was wrong it went even further SW into Georgia..Has to be an all time anomalous track if it happens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Just now, Jet Stream Rider said: A storm that strong even the little wobbles in Onslow bay will make a difference inland. Yikes. Looking on the weather.us site and looking at the winds, MBY never goes over the 70 mph line but it stays in the 55-70 mpg gust zones for more than 24 hrs.....which is believable we had hurricane force gust from Irene when she was SE of Lookout.....it has 50 mph gust as far inland as RDU and Rocky Mount with Flo even when she is offshore....so imagine if it did come another 50-75 miles NW before stopping and ended up over Goldsboro/Wilson thats why I am still concerned a bit,....she could also stop sooner and keep all the wind confined to the coast....this is why stalls suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Man the GFS turns near S.C./GA line and heads to WNC. Wrings the moisture out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YetAnotherRDUGuy Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 I feel bad for some of you jokers that get paid to forecast this. I think Florence is trolling all of us. 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 7 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Looking on the weather.us site and looking at the winds, MBY never goes over the 70 mph line but it stays in the 55-70 mpg gust zones for more than 24 hrs.....which is believable we had hurricane force gust from Irene when she was SE of Lookout.....it has 50 mph gust as far inland as RDU and Rocky Mount with Flo even when she is offshore....so imagine if it did come another 50-75 miles NW before stopping and ended up over Goldsboro/Wilson thats why I am still concerned a bit,....she could also stop sooner and keep all the wind confined to the coast....this is why stalls suck. I hear you. It increases the uncertainty. If it does happen like this though, many inland folk will be fortunate to not have that monster eye wall get any closer. Wow. BTW - Irene and Isabel, both left trees on this house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 21 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Man the GFS turns near S.C./GA line and heads to WNC. Wrings the moisture out. GFS takes Florence as far NW is Eastrern KY at hour 156 then turns back SW thru Western NC at hour 168 to about the midpoint of the SC/GA line at hour 180 with the remnants about to emerge back into the Atlantic off the Southern coast of SC at hour 186. Edit: Actually turns SW again and emerges off the Florida panhandle into the GOM at hour 204. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Euro does a off shore tour of the Carolinas and makes landfall in Georgia! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 1 minute ago, JoshM said: Euro does a off shore tour of the Carolinas and makes landfall in Georgia! then heads to atlanta. pretty wild to say the least. Who would have guessed georgia as a possible ultimate landfall a few days ago. Worried about widespread power outages and tree damage again in georgia as there Could be some funneling effect between the circulation center and the mountains similar to irma (helped by high pressure over new england too) with this type of track. Unlike irma though, the circulation will be much stronger as it crosses georgia. I lost 5 oaks because of irma. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 5 minutes ago, Lookout said: then heads to atlanta. pretty wild to say the least. Who would have guessed georgia as a possible ultimate landfall a few days ago. Worried about widespread power outages and tree damage again in georgia as there Could be some funneling effect between the circulation center and the mountains similar to irma (helped by high pressure over new england too) with this type of track. Unlike irma though, the circulation will be much stronger as it crosses georgia. I lost 5 oaks because of irma. Brisk day for you Monday, well this run, of course. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 17 minutes ago, JoshM said: Brisk day for you Monday, well this run, of course. yeah not good...the euro takes the core of whats left of the strongest winds right across here. Irma was such a unique case that it's hard to believe that we could do it again just one year later. Unfortunately a lot of people lost power for days on end and that was just a tropical depression/weak tropical storm by the time it got to the al/ga border. hopefully it will only be a minimal hurricane at landfall and it wont' be as bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 50 minutes ago, JoshM said: Euro does a off shore tour of the Carolinas and makes landfall in Georgia! Awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 6Z GFS just dumps on WNC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Interesting the GFS doesn't have such a deep sickle shape as the Euro in its westward movement. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Euro Ensemble is south again. Phil has a trend loop here - https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1039796190819188736 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 With this new cone, assuming it follows the mean line, what kind of wind can we expect in Wake county? Sustained and gusts please! Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Good luck to all you guys. As forecast now it looks like coastal areas are going to take a real beating. New Jersey is still rebuilding beaches six years after Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 5 minutes ago, Regan said: With this new cone, assuming it follows the mean line, what kind of wind can we expect in Wake county? Sustained and gusts please! Thanks! Everything you need to know here. this is this morning's NWS Raleigh briefing. https://www.weather.gov/media/rah/briefing/NWSRaleighLatestBriefing.pdf 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmh90 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 8 hours ago, downeastnc said: This is where I am, I too think its gonna dump in somewhere between ILM and J'ville, though if the eye is big enough it might be big enough to cover that whole stretch.....it will move WNW inland a bit then stall and then move more NNW and eventually to NNE......and probably spend way to much time over central and eastern NC....there is still around 54 hrs before landfall and there will be another north trend in the models..... Given the new updates do you still feel that this is a possibility? Obviously feels have nothing to do with weather forecasting but something just doesn’t feel right about all of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Right now pretty much every model dumps on WNC. 6Z GFS just dumps on WNC. Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Not that I'm wishing anything bad on anybody else but if we weren't gonna see strong winds in interior coastal plains of NC and all we were gonna get is 20 inches of rain then I'm glad it makes the turn and goes west. Hopefully it will weaken rapidly just off the coast keeping just a small part of NC in the cat 3 winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 So there was a slight shift north on some of the 6z model runs. One (FV3-GFS) now has the 6" QPF line into south Wake County. Point is I don't think there will be a radical move north, but a couple more small shift north can put many big urban areas back under the flooding threat. Something to monitor. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 8:00 AM EDT Wed Sep 12 Location: 29.4°N 70.7°W Moving: WNW at 17 mph Min pressure: 943 mb Max sustained: 130 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 12, 2018 Author Share Posted September 12, 2018 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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