WidreMann Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 I bet they'll slow it down at 5 AM. They probably want to see the 00z suite before going all-in on the stall-and-meander solution. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Any chance this continues to maybe move south for landfall? Maybe down at MB? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 6 minutes ago, WidreMann said: I bet they'll slow it down at 5 AM. They probably want to see the 00z suite before going all-in on the stall-and-meander solution. Agree. If it truly does lose all or practically all steering currents and is just spinning over the ocean like a top, it will tend to bounce off the land mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 For what its worth the ICON is sticking to its guns getting up to Cape Lookout/MHX again at 00Z......its going to sit over Bogue Banks for a bit then move W inland like the previous run.....very similar to the Ukie 12Z run as well. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 8 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Any chance this continues to maybe move south for landfall? Maybe down at MB? Sure. Several models have shown this. Landfall is technically only after the full eye moves over land, so it could brush onshore without making a full landfall and then go elsewhere! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, downeastnc said: For what its worth the ICON is sticking to its guns getting up to Cape Lookout/MHX again at 00Z......its going to sit over Bogue Banks for a bit then move W inland like the previous run.....very similar to the Ukie 12Z run as well. I'm intrigued by that solution as well. Is there another Ukie run soon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 12 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Any chance this continues to maybe move south for landfall? Maybe down at MB? Certainly, and that’s well within the NHC cone. Pretty sizable shift on the track tonight, and one that would probably spare Raleigh to some extent, I would expect. It will be interesting to see how/if the still develops. It almost seems too wonky to be legitimate on some of the models, but we’ve seen similar things before (I.e. Harvey). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Indeed, the GFS and Euro show only 1-2" of rain for RDU and wind gusts topping out in the 40s at best. Any more shifts south and it'll just be cloudy and breezy. A far cry from what the public probably still expects from this storm. I was not sold on this Fran-like track that was all the rage Sunday and Monday, but I expected that a track up the coast and out to sea around the upper-level ridge would be the most favored scenario. It's hard to think that we'd get a stall scenario this far north in mid-September, yet now with these persistent big ridges in the eastern half of the country, I guess this may be the new norm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 38 minutes ago, Justicebork said: NAM - Florence stalls out east of Wilmington at 42 and refuses to budge for the rest of the run. There will be moisture. That's what she said. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Is it worth remembering that 2 days ago the path was Fran-like and trending right and while it's trending left now, it may still trend back and end up having a solution in the middle? I guess the answer is anything is possible given the circumstances. I also recall hearing that the Gulf system could have an impact on Florence's steering. Any thoughts on that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 3k NAM @60 hours is ~ 100 miles SW of 12k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, JoshM said: 3k NAM @60 hours is ~ 100 miles SW of 12k Is the 3k, or the regular NAM for that matter, a reliable tropical model? Don't both of them get their initial and boundary conditions from the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tater Tot Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 42 minutes ago, GunBlade said: There’s some shear that probably won’t last much longer. The water vapor loop shows it well. If it comes ashore looking anything like that, Josh is going to vomit. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 GFS is running just a tad South of 18Z at hour 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 GFS is a touch NE at hour 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 The important thing is that the ridge over the SE is a bit stronger than 18z, which would argue for more of a stall and a more easterly track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 11 minutes ago, Berlin1926 said: Is it worth remembering that 2 days ago the path was Fran-like and trending right and while it's trending left now, it may still trend back and end up having a solution in the middle? I guess the answer is anything is possible given the circumstances. I also recall hearing that the Gulf system could have an impact on Florence's steering. Any thoughts on that? Higher uncertainty given the stall and crawl scenario, but the Euro Ensembles moving south last night and holding today (along with the FV3), taking the system into SC, is pretty telling IMO 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Just now, griteater said: Higher uncertainty given the stall and crawl scenario, but the Euro Ensembles moving south last night and holding today (along with the FV3), taking the system into SC, is pretty telling IMO Yep. The models have converged in a way that they were not a day or so ago. They show some track variance and some small detail differences, but the overall picture is pretty much the same among all of the majors (GGEM excepted). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
palmettoweather Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Take it for what it's worth, but 00z GFS is 8 mb lower at hr 48 compared to 18z, shows 927 mb E of Cape Fear and S of Cape Lookout. Edit: Can't read on phone, was only 927 mb, not 923 mb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 GGEM takes it slowly inland over eastern NC. It was the last outlier. It's still kind of an outlier in its northerliness, but not by as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Stalls just off the NC coast near Sneads Ferry at hour 60 until it starts moving SW at hour 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Don't think this run will take it as far to the SW still spinning on same spot off Jacksonville NC at 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 This GFS run just shows how much a 75-100 mile change can make, between 54 and 60 it slams on the brakes barely stopping before landfalling in Onslow Bay if it goes another 50-100 miles before stopping it changes things for a lot of people inland.....and that 100 miles is well within the margin of error in the 50 hr range.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justicebork Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 And there she goes, pressing SW along the coast starting at 84 -still offshore at 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Hour 96 Just off shore near the NC/SC state line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
palmettoweather Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 At 96, SW move now underway, but much closer to shore and 20-30 mb weaker. Touching coast at Little River/Calabash at 96. Stalling closer to shore weakened the storm significantly this run, but probably means SE NC paid the price in storm surge if this verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 5 minutes ago, WidreMann said: GGEM takes it slowly inland over eastern NC. It was the last outlier. It's still kind of an outlier in its northerliness, but not by as much. UKMet has now moved south. At hr72 it is in Wilmington area. At hr120 it looks like it is west of Clemson, SC, near GA/NC/SC triple point. Those are the only 2 hours I have, which I know is weird (still coming in) 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Just now, griteater said: UKMet has now moved south. At hr72 it is in Wilmington area. At hr120 it looks like it is west of Clemson, SC, near GA/NC/SC triple point. Those are the only 2 hours I have, which I know is weird (still coming in) This convergence makes it clear that the solution is probably correct. Lots of egg-on-face for folks in the Triangle who were pumping up the Fran 2.0 angle when the storm was still 4-6 days away and the models were showing a lot of uncertainty. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Landfall in SC from the NE moving SW at hour 102 looks like between Myrtle Beach & Charleston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 UKMet is Wilmington area (hr72) to Myrtle Beach area (96) to west of Clemson (120) to E Ohio (144) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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