SENC Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 50 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: High Risk excessive flash flood risk , issued by WPC! It’s only the 2nd time it’s ever issued one of those!! The 1st one was issued for Harvey!! I just that "alert" too on My phone.. (I'm in Wilmington) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthWake33 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, WeatherNC said: Real deal Floyd Irene sandwich if this lines up, we are well inside the cone. If I was in a position to inform the general public RAH/MHX would be my message based on the data I have access to, as opposed to subjective views from WRAL or WITN. Thanks for your insight. Can you please clarify what you mean by RAH/MHX would be your message? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Just now, SouthWake33 said: Thanks for your insight. Can you please clarify what you mean by RAH/MHX would be your message? National Weather Service Office in Raleigh and Morehead City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 4 minutes ago, WeatherNC said: Real deal Floyd Irene sandwich if this lines up, we are well inside the cone. If I was in a position to inform the general public RAH/MHX would be my message based on the data I have access to, as opposed to subjective views from WRAL or WITN. Hey post me up a link to those TAB outputs..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 1 minute ago, downeastnc said: Hey post me up a link to those TAB outputs..... Still waiting for Albany to update but based on SFWMD 0z are now well off the SC coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Just now, WeatherNC said: Still waiting for Albany to update but based on SFWMD 0z are now well off the SC coast. Interesting maybe this stall business will vanish by tomorrow's run.....or at least just be a slowdown.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 If the steering mechanisms are so weak, why does Florence get as far as the coast and then looks like a billard ball hitting the edge of the table. Is there something magic about the coast or are the models struggling with happens with the hurricane once it's made landfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTPGiants Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 1 minute ago, Berlin1926 said: If the steering mechanisms are so weak, why does Florence get as far as the coast and then looks like a billard ball hitting the edge of the table. Is there something magic about the coast or are the models struggling with happens with the hurricane once it's made landfall. Someone is going to turn on NC's snow shield system. More seriously, it's just a timing thing. Happens to be Florence arrives as steering breaks down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 7 minutes ago, RTPGiants said: Someone is going to turn on NC's snow shield system. More seriously, it's just a timing thing. Happens to be Florence arrives as steering breaks down. Also keep in mind that where she stops is very dependent on several things and the models could easily be off on those things by 100-150 miles in this range and that will have major implications obviously....this is probably why the NHC is in no hurry to majorly change its forecast track..... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTPGiants Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Also keep in mind that where she stops is very dependent on several things and the models could easily be off on those things by 100-150 miles in this range and that will have major implications obviously....this is probably why the NHC is in no hurry to majorly change its forecast track..... Well to be fair to NHC, they only had the Euro guidance at 5. No track changes on intermediate advisories. Since then the GFS and future-GFS have sort of caved to Euro, so we'll see what they do at 11, but I'd expect a rather big change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 I suspect they drop it just over or just north of ILM..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 My aunt just texted me with a question that I hope one of you can answer... "How big is Florence across at the moment?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: My aunt just texted me with a question that I hope one of you can answer... "How big is Florence across at the moment?" I did a google search and it said at 4 pm it was about 250 miles across. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YetAnotherRDUGuy Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 5 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: My aunt just texted me with a question that I hope one of you can answer... "How big is Florence across at the moment?" Tell her it's about as wide as the state of SC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 47 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Yeah use the NWS not WRAL.....they have models they use and it changes every run...if the models drop the stall and go back to a better hit inland on NC they will have to change there maps the NWS wont lol.... It goes both ways though. If the latest Euro and FV3 are correct, Raleigh NWS will have to change their maps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 35 minutes ago, Berlin1926 said: If the steering mechanisms are so weak, why does Florence get as far as the coast and then looks like a billard ball hitting the edge of the table. Is there something magic about the coast or are the models struggling with happens with the hurricane once it's made landfall. A related post on this - https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/51511-hurricane-florence/?do=findComment&comment=4986166 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, griteater said: It goes both ways though. If the latest Euro and FV3 are correct, Raleigh NWS will have to change their maps Yeah but they do so in a measured fashion, rather than hugging every model run like us internet people like to do. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 4 minutes ago, wake4est said: Yeah but they do so in a measured fashion, rather than hugging every model run like us internet people like to do. Reason I asked was because let’s be honest, most people watch their local news. Let’s say someone is being told tonight 30-40mph GUSTS and they decide they stay it out. Risk the trees etc. Never knowing that there was almost double that being reported via NWS. I’ve seen a lot the last few days. I’ll be honest, I saw Fish day that tonight and felt some hope. Here’s to hoping this keeps trending away. Far as possible south seeing as how there’s little to no hope of it going well north anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 I still like landfall near ilm and then a slow slog west into southern nc bf turning back north. I can see a stall but I think a turn back south is bogus. Just basing this off climo, the hurricane's size and speed (inertia), and the overall pattern. These model flops are annoying but also humorous after a bit of rum. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 I didn't expect this storm to get the classic east coast comma shape with weaker/drier west and south sides but it certainly looks to be taking on that appearance. Maybe it's just temporary but it could be tough to maintain cat 4 with that structure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: I still like landfall near ilm and then a slow slog west into southern nc bf turning back north. I can see a stall but I think a turn back south is bogus. Just basing this off climo, the hurricane's size and speed (inertia), and the overall pattern. These model flops are annoying but also humorous after a bit of rum. This is where I am, I too think its gonna dump in somewhere between ILM and J'ville, though if the eye is big enough it might be big enough to cover that whole stretch.....it will move WNW inland a bit then stall and then move more NNW and eventually to NNE......and probably spend way to much time over central and eastern NC....there is still around 54 hrs before landfall and there will be another north trend in the models..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Based on microwave, structure is taking its final shape before direct impacts are felt along the coast. Another ERC is pretty clear at this point unless I am missing something. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justicebork Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 NAM - Florence stalls out east of Wilmington at 42 and refuses to budge for the rest of the run. There will be moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, Justicebork said: NAM - Florence stalls out east of Wilmington at 42 and refuses to budge for the rest of the run. There will be moisture. So you're telling me I should put the top up on the convertible? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 23 minutes ago, Dunkman said: I didn't expect this storm to get the classic east coast comma shape with weaker/drier west and south sides but it certainly looks to be taking on that appearance. Maybe it's just temporary but it could be tough to maintain cat 4 with that structure. There’s some shear that probably won’t last much longer. The water vapor loop shows it well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justicebork Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Just now, CaryWx said: So you're telling me I should put the top up on the convertible? Yes, and put the plants out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Screen grab from the Windy.com app using the 12zEuro data showing gust of 124mph on Topsail Island forecast 5am Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Big shift south on nhc track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Incremental change from NHC for 11pm update allowing for forecast southwest motion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 11PM update from NHC: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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