Jet Stream Rider Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 This is what the 18z FV3 shows through Tuesday. looks to be 6-8 for most mountain areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 1 minute ago, franklin NCwx said: Mountains dont need anymore rain. It has literally rained since May. Sure has. Very concerned with landslides with 3+ inches of rain. Enhanced flow is gonna flex its muscle when Flo makes the turn near WNC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 8 minutes ago, Rainforrest said: How much rain are we looking at for the mountains? Looks like 4-6+ on the TT maps for the FV3, but that would almost definitely be underdone in the SE facing escarpment areas. Strong, moist SE flow is the last thing you want to see and I wouldn't be surprised for some areas to see a foot or more. Only good news is that it's actually moving by then instead of just crawling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justicebork Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 18z HWRF is a landfall at N Myrtle at hour 60. It pushes WSW into South Carolina from there. 18z HMON is a Wilmington landfall at 63, moving on to Charlotte. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 The crazy SW drift on the GFS would be tossed if it was by itself... But the EURO showed it first with a near identical track with a Charleston landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: The crazy SW drift on the GFS would be tossed if it was by itself... But the EURO showed it first with a near identical track with a Charleston landfall Don’t forget about the eps and FV3 GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjwise Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 5 minutes ago, yotaman said: Sandy and Isabel are 2 that come to mind that made significant left hand moves but you are right that none that we know of have made SW moves this far north. They made left movements, yes, but not anti-poleward. If a sustained SW movement (not a stall or eye wobble) actually occurs with this storm, it's without apparent precedent in the historical record. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 5 minutes ago, wake4est said: The NHC doesn't change the track/cone on the intermediate advisories. The only thing different is the 8PM location and winds. New track will come out with the full advisory at 11PM. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 18z HMON shows landfall at 9z Friday near Topsail Island with Flo likely a cat 2 or 3 in previous frame.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 17 minutes ago, mjwise said: They made left movements, yes, but not anti-poleward. If a sustained SW movement (not a stall or eye wobble) actually occurs with this storm, it's without apparent precedent in the historical record. So is the fact that it's even going to hit NC based on it's location a few days ago, so.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluffton21 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Im in Charleston I got my wife and Baby out. They will have to stay put for awhile I guess. I have been here few years I never leave during storm we don't flood. I'm riding this out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 High Risk excessive flash flood risk , issued by WPC! It’s only the 2nd time it’s ever issued one of those!! The 1st one was issued for Harvey!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 6 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: High Risk excessive flash flood risk , issued by WPC! It’s only the 2nd time it’s ever issued one of those!! The 1st one was issued for Harvey!! I know it's a fairly new product but that's still really freaking ominous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderwolf Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 7 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: High Risk excessive flash flood risk , issued by WPC! It’s only the 2nd time it’s ever issued one of those!! The 1st one was issued for Harvey!! Maybe a Day 3 high risk, but there has been several Highs Risks issued by the WPC this year. In fact they issued one as the remnants of Gordon combined with a cold front of the OH Valley this past weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NyCwEaThErFeEn Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 37 minutes ago, bluffton21 said: Im in Charleston I got my wife and Baby out. They will have to stay put for awhile I guess. I have been here few years I never leave during storm we don't flood. I'm riding this out. You should leave bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 7 minutes ago, wake4est said: This is where it gets shady because all the tv station local and non local are still at the minute saying gusts 30-40 and sustained lower here in Wake. This says significantly more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, Regan said: This is where it gets shady because all the tv station local and non local are still at the minute saying gusts 30-40 and sustained lower here in Wake. This says significantly more. Listen to the NWS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Just now, wake4est said: Listen to the NWS. But it just seems so high for this to weaken so much at the coast and track more south. We will keep watching. Forecasts will keep changing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 5 minutes ago, Regan said: But it just seems so high for this to weaken so much at the coast and track more south. We will keep watching. Forecasts will keep changing. I guess the NWS doesn’t buy the models weird tracks after the stall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 5 minutes ago, Regan said: But it just seems so high for this to weaken so much at the coast and track more south. We will keep watching. Forecasts will keep changing. The winds aloft will still be screaming though at 850 and it wont be that unusual for them to mix down so you can have sustained 30 mph winds and still gust way up to 60-80....its common with well organized landfalling storms.....better you expect 100 and get 50 than expect 50 and get 100.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 1 minute ago, downeastnc said: The winds aloft will still be screaming though at 850 and it wont be that unusual for them to mix down so you can have sustained 30 mph winds and still gust way up to 60-80....its common with well organized landfalling storms.....better you expect 100 and get 50 than expect 50 and get 100.... Right I was just confused why Wral was saying gusts 30-40 mph here. Not sustained. But gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, Regan said: Right I was just confused why Wral was saying gusts 30-40 mph here. Not sustained. But gusts. That map they showed was based off the weird south Euro run entirely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Yes, go by the NWS. They may change those graphics in a day or two to adjust to changing information. They are also in lock step with the NHC. They only change incrementally. If the actual data and the models continue to show a more southern solution, they will adjust as we go through the next 2 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, Regan said: Right I was just confused why Wral was saying gusts 30-40 mph here. Not sustained. But gusts. Yeah use the NWS not WRAL.....they have models they use and it changes every run...if the models drop the stall and go back to a better hit inland on NC they will have to change there maps the NWS wont lol.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthWake33 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 I believe WRAL is trying to balance what the euro and some other models are trending toward with what the NHC and NWS are showing in their graphics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Well highest SFMR on the first pass was 101 kts. FL was a little better at 126 but Florence may have trouble maintaining cat 4 now with the expanded wind field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Real deal Floyd Irene sandwich if this lines up, we are well inside the cone. If I was in a position to inform the general public RAH/MHX would be my message based on the data I have access to, as opposed to subjective views from WRAL or WITN. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 41 minutes ago, thunderwolf said: Maybe a Day 3 high risk, but there has been several Highs Risks issued by the WPC this year. In fact they issued one as the remnants of Gordon combined with a cold front of the OH Valley this past weekend. Yeah, the 3 day part must be unusual. But still , pretty scary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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