Hurricane Florence

[gearhead302]

44 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

I would not mind taking the hit for everyone on this board (have never been in a hurricane)

You can't be 30 years old if you live in orangeburg and and never experienced a hurricane.  You reference hugo so I assumed you lived through it.  I guess not.  Imagine thousands of people losing their homes and plenty losing their lives.  Travel and ride out a CAT 1 if you want to experience it.  Heck I want to do that at the coast but, I dont want to experience another Hugo.... sorry guy.

[downeastnc]

Never fear i am about to order a generator off Amazon for Wed delivery this will all but assure the storm will not hit eastern NC....

[No snow for you]

I have been thru a cat 2 and below which really wasn’t a big deal. Then there was Hugo And it was night and day. Hugo was like the worse thunderstorm times 3 for 3 hours. No power for 2 weeks sucked. No one should want to grow through that, especially if they have trees close to their house. 

[SouthWake33]

I was 13 and living in Raleigh when Fran hit.  I remember my Dad watching a huge oak tree right outside our front door all night.  It never fell.  The constant, unrelenting power of a hurricane is the hardest thing to understand if you’ve never been through one.  We were without power for 9 days and used the neighbor’s pool water to flush the toilets.  It was not fun...Nevertheless a part of me wants to experience the awesomeness of it again.

[yotaman]

48 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Never fear i am about to order a generator off Amazon for Wed delivery this will all but assure the storm will not hit eastern NC....

I as going to do the same but since you are I guess I no longer need it. Thanks.

[ncforecaster89]

I'm enjoying reading the unique hurricane experiences so many of you have shared in this thread.  

This is somewhat hypocritical, as I will do my best to be in the absolute center of the eye if at all possible, but I too would recommend those who haven't truly experienced the full force of an intense hurricane to be wary of its power to change lives and the landscape where it barrels through.  

Edit: Despite having endured/intercepted more than 25 hurricanes, to date, I always feel genuine fear prior to each one...realizing just how destructive and deadly they can ALL be.

[ncforecaster89]

2 hours ago, ncskywarn said:

WOW HWRF 195 Kt=225 MPH at the 850 level at hour 120.  Looks definitely plausible when you look at the bottom 2 images.

I'll take the under on that intensity forecast.   The HWRF has been notorious for overestimating intensity since its inception...not to say I would rule out the prospect of Florence being able to achieve cat 5 strength at its max intensity...won't be cat 5 at landfall, naturally.   High-end category four hurricane would be the more likely scenario...at peak intensity...would be my best educated guess at this point.   Then again, it's not totally inconceivable that Florence may not be able to regain its former strength if the inner core continues to be disrupted and elongated.  Plenty of time to observe the inevitable, regardless.   

[downeastnc]

The ICON 00Z run is a miss just off Hatteras and the first non landfall run for the ICON in 3-4 runs.....it however has always been more of a S to N type track just inland over NC and most other models are more SE to NW......

[SN_Lover]

GFS looks unchanged 

[Orangeburgwx]

1 minute ago, SN_Lover said:

GFS looks unchanged 

No, it's a bit slower

[SN_Lover]

3 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

No, it's a bit slower

True, but shouldn't make too much of a difference. 

[NC_hailstorm]

7 hours ago, Cold Rain said:

We’ll know in 24 hours!

Yep the latest Ukie has it south of Charleston now at 144,close to the GA border.It's also pushing the 594dm death ridge further west covering all of VA and northern N Carolina then too

It's not making a hard right if that's there in my opinion.

[Orangeburgwx]

27 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said:

Yep the latest Ukie has it south of Charleston now at 144,close to the GA border.It's also pushing the 594dm death ridge further west covering all of VA and northern N Carolina then too

It's not making a hard right if that's there in my opinion.

What wind speed at landfall?

[JoshM]

Been lurking, before coming out of my hibernation. Starting to peak my interest for next week. Euro said Friday is going to be a brisk day for me!

 

Precip Amounts

[kvegas-wx]

Not now Florence.  I really gotta lotta other crap to do this fall.  

Dont like that rainfall map at all for central NC.  We may have 2-4" of rain over the next few days anyway.  12-15" more would not have a positive outcome for most!

Power outage prep plan....engage!

[Orangeburgwx]

Back to back runs of the EURO with a Hugo redux... It has its' target now the GFS is the chaser,other models are starting to side with the EURO so watch the GFS cave with a Cat 5 Hugo track

[Modfan]

9 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Back to back runs of the EURO with a Hugo redux... It has its' target now the GFS is the chaser,other models are starting to side with the EURO so watch the GFS cave with a Cat 5 Hugo track

Wouldn't get locked onto one model just yet; during Irma GFS and Euro had two different out comes; both ended up off with their tracks and Ukie end up nailing the track.

[Orangeburgwx]

15 minutes ago, Modfan said:

Wouldn't get locked onto one model just yet; during Irma GFS and Euro had two different out comes; both ended up off with their tracks and Ukie end up nailing the track.

Where is Ukie heading right now?

[Wow]

10 hours ago, downeastnc said:

Never fear i am about to order a generator off Amazon for Wed delivery this will all but assure the storm will not hit eastern NC....

Irma pushed me to buy one last year so it definitely works. 

[downeastnc]

Just now, Wow said:

Irma pushed me to buy one last year so it definitely works. 

Still havent hit the checkout button yet......so far the GFS is east of me and the Euro inland from me.....probably means I am screwed since the blend is right over me lol.....found one on Prime that I can get by Thursday even if I wait till tomorrow....

 

[griteater]

5AM NHC Disco...

The upper-level environment is expected to improve to significantly
during the next 12 h and beyond with the current 20 kt of
southwesterly shear forecast to give way to shear of less than 10
kt. By 72 h and beyond, light shear from the southeast and east
along with the development of strong upper-level outflow jets to
the north of Florence is expected to create an environment that
favors significant and possibly even rapid strengthening. The new
NHC intensity forecast has been increased over the previous advisory
in anticipation of these very favorable dynamical conditions
developing, and now shows Florence becoming a hurricane by Sunday
and a major hurricane in 3 days, followed by additional
strengthening over the very warm Atlantic waters of at least 29 deg
C that are about 2 deg C above normal right now. The consensus
models IVCN and HCCA were closely followed, which are a little
below the FSSE model.
 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0900Z 24.5N  54.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
12H  08/1800Z 24.6N  55.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
24H  09/0600Z 24.6N  56.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
36H  09/1800Z 24.6N  57.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
48H  10/0600Z 24.9N  59.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
72H  11/0600Z 26.0N  64.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
96H  12/0600Z 28.0N  70.2W  120 KT 140 MPH
120H  13/0600Z 30.9N  75.8W  125 KT 145 MPH

 

[Rainforrest]

Any chance this ridge comes in stronger and pushes this thing farther south into the coast of South Carolina or georgia?

[downeastnc]

FV3 comes in just north of ILM.....then moves NNE across eastern NC before looping back down off SC and then coming up and hitting ILM again......the last 4 runs have hit anywhere from Hatteras to Georgetown SC.

 

[Cold Rain]

58 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Still havent hit the checkout button yet......so far the GFS is east of me and the Euro inland from me.....probably means I am screwed since the blend is right over me lol.....found one on Prime that I can get by Thursday even if I wait till tomorrow....

 

Go ahead and pull the trigger.  It’s a good thing to have whether you use it next week or not.  Plus, if you’re hoping for a Florence miss, why not go ahead and seal the deal early?!

[shaggy]

I just get the feeling this thing is just gonna plow wnw right into SC and never make a big enough turn as its modeled right now. 

If it landfalls south of Jacksonville moving wnw this will spare a large part of eastern NC but really increase the risk for central and western nc.

Really need that GIV up and flying missions to get the data into the models.

[NCSU_Pi]

26 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Go ahead and pull the trigger.  It’s a good thing to have whether you use it next week or not.  Plus, if you’re hoping for a Florence miss, why not go ahead and seal the deal early?!

How significant is the process of hooking things up to a generator? If you're ordering one off Amazon, is it a portable one?

And how much gas do you need to have on hand to last at least a week running a refrigerator, some lights, maybe a fan, and since they don't use much power these days, a TV?

I'm assuming I'm out of luck if I want to hook up a generator I got from Amazon to power a heat pump and air handler.

 

Edit: Sorry if this is too off-topic for this thread.

[Cold Rain]

9 minutes ago, NCSU_Pi said:

How significant is the process of hooking things up to a generator? If you're ordering one off Amazon, is it a portable one?

And how much gas do you need to have on hand to last at least a week running a refrigerator, some lights, maybe a fan, and since they don't use much power these days, a TV?

I'm assuming I'm out of luck if I want to hook up a generator I got from Amazon to power a heat pump and air handler.

 

Edit: Sorry if this is too off-topic for this thread.

These are good questions.  I’m going to punt, as I’ve never had to use one...knock on wood.  Can anyone here answer the above, please?

[gtg947h]

22 minutes ago, NCSU_Pi said:

How significant is the process of hooking things up to a generator? If you're ordering one off Amazon, is it a portable one?

And how much gas do you need to have on hand to last at least a week running a refrigerator, some lights, maybe a fan, and since they don't use much power these days, a TV?

I'm assuming I'm out of luck if I want to hook up a generator I got from Amazon to power a heat pump and air handler.

 

Edit: Sorry if this is too off-topic for this thread.

A portable generator will run stuff off of extension cords, unless you've made the appropriate changes to tie it into your house wiring (see below). 

If properly connected to the house through a transfer switch of some kind, you could theoretically run your central air system if the generator has enough power output.

 

Now, properly and safely connecting your generator to the house requires some kind of power inlet and either a dedicated transfer switch, or an interlock installed in your breaker panel.  This will prevent the possibility of your generator trying to back-feed through the mains and injuring electrical workers if you leave a breaker in the wrong position.  Unless you're familiar with doing residential wiring you'd best hire that installation out to a licensed electrician.

The other big no-no is building a "suicide cord" with male plugs on one end that connect to the generator, and a male plug on the other end that connects to something like a dryer or range plug.  Having the exposed prongs on both ends is a big safety issue--for example, making or possessing one at my employer is grounds for termination.

 

In the timeframe we're talking about you'd be better off with extra extension cords and a window unit or two; doubt you'll be able to get an electrician in to do all that on short notice.  One of these days I'll get around to putting the transfer switch in for mine, but in the meantime a couple of good long cords will run the fridge and an air conditioner.  But anything past Cat 1 we're going to stay with our parents near Atlanta anyway.

 

I couldn't tell you how much gas you'd need.  You'll need to look up the fuel consumption for your specific generator, and to be conservative assume full power output.  Rectal-extraction figure says a little north of 100 gallons.

[northwestgastormdawg]

Florence has been losing some latitude and the vertical stacking looks better this morning.  Also becoming more concerned for areas further south towards S.C. and Georgia coasts.  Very very susceptible to storm surge miles inland.

[Solak]

Recon is in the outer fringes of Florence now.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/