palmettoweather Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 19 minutes ago, Jet Stream Rider said: This has to be a surprising look for folks along the coast south of Charleston that may have considered themselves out of the woods. It makes it awkward for the Governor, as the evacuation orders were rescinded South of Edisto Beach earlier today. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Just now, rjtysinger said: If it stalled offshore would that cool the waters in turn weakining it? Very possible scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ander Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 What would this swap mean for the triangle - just heavy but not epic rains? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 It won’t take the models being off much with forward speed or angle , to push onshore and then stall! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, ander420 said: What would this swap mean for the triangle - just heavy but not epic rains? A lot less rain. Less than 2 inches for most. A little more towards 95. Very little wind as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: It won’t take the models being off much with forward speed or angle , to push onshore and then stall! Trying to pin down a stall is hard. I remember watching Dennis approach in 1999 and he blew past the turn plot in the NHC track. He got 30 to 40 miles north and I was thinking man he is gonna keep going and then he just stopped and turned. It doesn't sound like much but 30 to 40 miles makes a big difference with Florence. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, wncsnow said: A lot less rain. Less than 2 inches for most. A little more towards 95. Very little wind as well. Wish I could believe that but this route is still tough for the Triangle. Not catastrophic though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 10 minutes ago, rjtysinger said: If it stalled offshore would that cool the waters in turn weakining it? If it stalled over the gulf stream, probably not like most think it would. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ander Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: A lot less rain. Less than 2 inches for most. A little more towards 95. Very little wind as well. I hate to come off as sounding bitter, but I worry that if this is the case no one here except preppers will take a storm seriously. Literally, everyone has been doing all they need to do which has not been the case in prior storms in my 12 years here. Based on the certainty of the track, literally all the colleges have cancelled, all the schools etc. A little rain is going to produce a lot of egg. At the institution I worked out, they sent out this morning that everyone who can should go home. Kids have been flying out since yesterday since the school has to evacuate if they lose power. This is in the triangle/triad area. My wife works in academics as well and it is in the same boat - telling people to just go home. Not sure what it really means at this point but I think if this is right and there ever is a major slap this way very few will be ready for it. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Wish I could believe that but this route is still tough for the Triangle. Not catastrophic though Doesnt look tough to me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTPGiants Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, ander420 said: I hate to come off as sounding bitter, but I worry that if this is the case no one here except preppers will take a storm seriously. Literally, everyone has been doing all they need to do which has not been the case in prior storms in my 12 years here. Based on the certainty of the track, literally all the colleges have cancelled, all the schools etc. A little rain is going to produce a lot of egg. At the institution I worked out, they sent out this morning that everyone who can should go home. Kids have been flying out since yesterday since the school has to evacuate if they lose power. This is in the triangle/triad area. My wife works in academics as well and it is in the same boat - telling people to just go home. Not sure what it really means at this point but I think if this is right and there ever is a major slap this way very few will be ready for it. Here in lay the problem for pretty much every NHC forecast. You've basically hit on the head why NHC doesn't make wild prediction swings based on every model run. If you cry wolf too far in advance, then people will not take proper care the next time. If you're too conservative, then people won't have time to prepare. Unfortunately atmospheric prediction is still a challenge even in these days of advanced computer models. If you're a professor and in the end the Triangle area gets nothing, I hope you teach your students that it was better to over prepare than to under prepare. In the end it will have cost them and you money and time, but that's ok. In today's "everything right now" society, it's ok to take a pause out of your life for safety rather than play on the edge of the knife. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suncat Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 NHC as of the 2:00 PM advisor continues to have Florence coming into the Onslow Bay region, north of Wilmington, then turning more NW to W once inland. They have been pretty bullish about a NC coast hit. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ander Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 7 minutes ago, RTPGiants said: Here in lay the problem for pretty much every NHC forecast. You've basically hit on the head why NHC doesn't make wild prediction swings based on every model run. If you cry wolf too far in advance, then people will not take proper care the next time. If you're too conservative, then people won't have time to prepare. Unfortunately atmospheric prediction is still a challenge even in these days of advanced computer models. If you're a professor and in the end the Triangle area gets nothing, I hope you teach your students that it was better to over prepare than to under prepare. In the end it will have cost them and you money and time, but that's ok. In today's "everything right now" society, it's ok to take a pause out of your life for safety rather than play on the edge of the knife. I dont know man - our school has people from all over the country. Asking families to spring for kids to fly out last minute to avoid a catastrophic hurricane and there is no hurricane makes every look bad. I have never seen this level of preparation for a storm growing up in the northeast and in 12 years in NC. The warnings were clear and for once people listened. I think most people will tune out going forward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, ander420 said: I dont know man - our school has people from all over the country. Asking families to spring for kids to fly out last minute to avoid a catastrophic hurricane and there is no hurricane makes every look bad. I have never seen this level of preparation for a storm growing up in the northeast and in 12 years in NC. The warnings were clear and for once people listened. I think most people will tune out going forward. I get angry at this every time....especially on a weather board where people should know better and understand shifts do happen. It is is much better to inconvenience some people and be over prepared than have a catastrophic disaster and be under prepared. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ander Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 4 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: I get angry at this every time....especially on a weather board where people should know better and understand shifts do happen. It is is much better to inconvenience some people and be over prepared than have a catastrophic disaster and be under prepared. Look I am sensitive to all of this and not trying to be a dick about anything. I have just never seen such buy in and worry about the fall out. We cancelled 2 days of classes, basically a third and told parents and students to get the kids the heck out. Flying your kid to California or Boston or Philly or Florida or Oregon is a big expense for a lot of people and not just an inconvenience. The level of certainty in all this and how it was pitched (if it turns out wrong) is going to cause some significant problems that will eventually come back to bite people really hard. That is all I am saying. Personally, I have never seen folks in the Triangle take a storm more seriously in my years here. The threat was clear, it was communicated clearly, understood, and acted upon. The lack of doubts or possibilities along the way is going to leave a lot of folks angry and a lot of folks just not trusting this kind of stuff in the future. My two cents. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Sometimes the models wanna do these stall or loops and they just get it wrong.....remember this gem during Matthew, where for several days the models had him looping back the Bahamas then 24 hrs out they dropped it and by 8am Sun he was just east of Hatteras moving NE OTS...that a big track change for inside of 24 hrs lol......not saying that's the case here at all but I always get cautious when they do stalls/loops and course reverses etc.... 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluffton21 Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Anyone have a link to where I can follow the latest models I'm in Charleston SC. I stayed glued to this forum every hurricane season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 when is recon going back in? haven't had a flight since this morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StoneColdWeatherAustin Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 13 minutes ago, ander420 said: Look I am sensitive to all of this and not trying to be a dick about anything. I have just never seen such buy in and worry about the fall out. We cancelled 2 days of classes, basically a third and told parents and students to get the kids the heck out. Flying your kid to California or Boston or Philly or Florida or Oregon is a big expense for a lot of people and not just an inconvenience. The level of certainty in all this and how it was pitched (if it turns out wrong) is going to cause some significant problems that will eventually come back to bite people really hard. That is all I am saying. Personally, I have never seen folks in the Triangle take a storm more seriously in my years here. The threat was clear, it was communicated clearly, understood, and acted upon. The lack of doubts or possibilities along the way is going to leave a lot of folks angry and a lot of folks just not trusting this kind of stuff in the future. My two cents. I would hope that any of these inconveniences are nothing compared to the loss of your kid. And if it is and they do not listen next time, that is on them. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 12z Euro - this amount of rain along with the storm surge will flood Wilmington. Folks should evacuate if unsure of their situation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 What the actual hell caused the EURO to bury me like that... If the GFS follows suit that would cause trouble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Just now, Orangeburgwx said: What the actual hell caused the EURO to bury me like that... If the GFS follows suit that would cause trouble Until nhc breaks from their track reasoning then they are who we need to listen to. I can tell you over the decades of tracking hurricanes I have said many times "they have no choice but to move landfall" and more times than not if they stick to their guns inside this range they have knowledge we dont. Could they shift the track? Absolutely but there's still models over towards lookout too so my guess is small adjustments from here on out. Also even a trochodial wobble could change landfall 10 to 15 miles with the angle of approach. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 49 minutes ago, ander420 said: Look I am sensitive to all of this and not trying to be a dick about anything. I have just never seen such buy in and worry about the fall out. We cancelled 2 days of classes, basically a third and told parents and students to get the kids the heck out. Flying your kid to California or Boston or Philly or Florida or Oregon is a big expense for a lot of people and not just an inconvenience. The level of certainty in all this and how it was pitched (if it turns out wrong) is going to cause some significant problems that will eventually come back to bite people really hard. That is all I am saying. Personally, I have never seen folks in the Triangle take a storm more seriously in my years here. The threat was clear, it was communicated clearly, understood, and acted upon. The lack of doubts or possibilities along the way is going to leave a lot of folks angry and a lot of folks just not trusting this kind of stuff in the future. My two cents. Ander420, Is in fact Quite Right If you seriously think about this. In todays Political Climate... With ALL the Major media News organization(s) HYPING up this Storm, OMG End of the World is coming… After being called out & caught-up in many________, ending up with Egg in their faces for the Past Two years... Time after time.. Screaming, now, LISTEN to US! We are "thinking for you, AND then Tell you WHAT to think & Do" (It's for the Children you know).. Gosh dern right the General Public at Large Will in fact Ignore ANY future Warnings.. Until it's to late... Look at Memes All over the net concerning, & making fun of Jim Cantore, when He shows up before & during a Major Weather event.. Then there WILL be the reasoning that yes, in fact, MSN & Media are "earning" the Moniker of Fake News.. With that said... Floyd dumped 19.50 +/- inches of Rain here in Wilm.. Ya'll remember what happened then.. I cannot Fathom 25~45 inches of rain with all the Development in the past 3~5 years in SENC.. Destruction would be on the Biblical Type scale.. Floyd AND Fran, times TWO... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 12 minutes ago, SENC said: Ander420, Is in fact Quite Right If you seriously think about this. In todays Political Climate... With ALL the Major media News organization(s) HYPING up this Storm, OMG End of the World is coming… After being called out & caught-up in many________, ending up with Egg in their faces for the Past Two years... Time after time.. Screaming, now, LISTEN to US! We are [/I]"thinking for you, AND then Tell you WHAT to think & Do"[/I] (It's for the Children you know).. Gosh dern right the General Public at Large Will in fact Ignore ANY future Warnings.. Until it's to late... Look at Memes All over the net concerning, & making fun of Jim Cantore, when He shows up before & during a Major Weather event.. Then there WILL be the reasoning that yes, in fact, MSN & Media are "earning" the Moniker of Fake News.. With that said... Floyd dumped 19.50 +/- inches of Rain here in Wilm.. Ya'll remember what happened then.. I cannot Fathom 25~45 inches of rain with all the Development in the past 3~5 years in SENC.. Destruction would be on the Biblical Type scale.. Floyd AND Fran, times TWO... So... Floyd, Fran, Hugo, and Harvey all tied into one? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Current Euro 12z ensemble members for reference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 38 minutes ago, bluffton21 said: Anyone have a link to where I can follow the latest models I'm in Charleston SC. I stayed glued to this forum every hurricane season. Our site right here has an excellent model center: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/models/model_center.html/ And the Tropical Tidbits site is also very good: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven_1974 Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 21 minutes ago, SENC said: Ander420, Is in fact Quite Right If you seriously think about this. In todays Political Climate... With ALL the Major media News organization(s) HYPING up this Storm, OMG End of the World is coming… After being called out & caught-up in many________, ending up with Egg in their faces for the Past Two years... Time after time.. Screaming, now, LISTEN to US! We are "thinking for you, AND then Tell you WHAT to think & Do" (It's for the Children you know).. Gosh dern right the General Public at Large Will in fact Ignore ANY future Warnings.. Until it's to late... Look at Memes All over the net concerning, & making fun of Jim Cantore, when He shows up before & during a Major Weather event.. Then there WILL be the reasoning that yes, in fact, MSN & Media are "earning" the Moniker of Fake News.. With that said... Floyd dumped 19.50 +/- inches of Rain here in Wilm.. Ya'll remember what happened then.. I cannot Fathom 25~45 inches of rain with all the Development in the past 3~5 years in SENC.. Destruction would be on the Biblical Type scale.. Floyd AND Fran, times TWO... And this is exactly why people saying things like that makes it so dangerous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluffton21 Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, Jet Stream Rider said: Our site right here has an excellent model center: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/models/model_center.html/ And the Tropical Tidbits site is also very good: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ Excellent thanks!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gman Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 I feel bad for the folks holding the World Equestrian Games in Tryon. Tens of thousands of visitors are in the area for at least the next two weeks. https://tryon2018.com/ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 5 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: So... Floyd, Fran, Hugo, and Harvey all tied into one? Yes I said this Late Last Week All Wrapped in a nice Box with a red Bow... The Box's name & contents were SHTF… I'm still bullish on a Wilmington/Cape Fear Landfall as I was last week... Though I wasn't expecting Flo to Stall and SET on top of Us though.. I wanted too "Share the Love" with Our inland Folks.. I had a few friends Leave Wilm today for Down south below Dirty Myrtle &Savannah GA , & Atlanta,Ga , I can only Imagine their Dismay to "bug out" only to be "followed", (if that comes to pass).. With that said... DT has some great commentary.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now