griteater Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Euro out to 66 - it's a touch slower this run and a touch north...center looks close to Topsail Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 At 69-72, it's stalled for the moment with the center just north of Wilmington Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Just now, griteater said: At 69-72, it's stalled for the moment with the center just north of Wilmington us inland guys needed that more like just north jacksonville. Thats too far southwest to get me hurricane force winds.Would be devastating for most of the beaches in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Euro is a bad look for SE NC coast. It hasn't moved from hr66 to 81...looks bad for rain, surge, wind there from Wilmington to Topsail, up to Emerald Isle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 ended up a tick slower than the 12z gfs but pretty close to the same landfall location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 So it appears Wilmington may end up being the northern extent of the landfall possibility as most models today have the goal posts at the southern end of Wilmington down to dirty Myrtle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 That was a decent NE jump at 48 hrs...honestly surprised me thought it might be going to end up Jacksonville/MHX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Just now, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: So it appears Wilmington may end up being the northern extent of the landfall possibility as most models today have the goal posts at the southern end of Wilmington down to dirty Myrtle. no.....the majority of models all landfall on or north of ILM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Euro has it still stuck on Wilmington....24 hours now from Thurs night to Fri night....now drifting off the coast due south of Wilmington at hr96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderwolf Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, downeastnc said: That was a decent NE jump at 48 hrs...honestly surprised me thought it might be going to end up Jacksonville/MHX Pressure 10 mb higher too. Not sure what I think about that, although nearly all the models have been trending slightly weaker with the system which is good news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 It doesn't look like any models really want to strengthen the storm much from here on in which would certainly be a blessing. That said, satellite is looking better all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Euro would be epic flooding in SE NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, downeastnc said: no.....the majority of models all landfall on or north of ILM That’s what I said. Nothing north of Wilmington. That appears to be northern extent. No model has any thing north of there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 At hr111, Euro has drifted SW to Charleston area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 1 minute ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: That’s what I said. Nothing north of Wilmington. That appears to be northern extent. No model has any thing north of there. 12z UK went well north of Wilmington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Inland flood threat west of 95 seems to be decreasing with each model cycle. Especially up my way in Southern VA and towards the triad and triangle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Euro has it slowly moving inland across southern SC Sun morning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 All the college football games cancelling will be eating crow with little to no bad weather if that run happens verbatim.. Just another option on the table. The HP just squashes Flo to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTPGiants Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Anyone have precip totals from that Euro run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Can you imagine trying to put out the actual NHC cone this afternoon? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 What are the wind gusts in Charleston after hour 105 as it passes down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 This is the first Euro run since it nailed the NC hit on day 9 (day 10?) to show a loop-like motion similar to what the (admittedly) zany GFS has shown. Not the same, and still suppressed, but that stall near Wilmington and then the motion back down the coast a bit before heading west is similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjtysinger Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 I’m not gonna hug the back and forth on the models. They are wrong more than not! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Very interesting run by the EURO; however, a majority of the operational models has moved the system to the south approximately 40-60 miles towards the NC/SC border, which the EURO and its ensembles has been showing for many days now. The exceptions are the GGEM and the UKMET. This is why I personally believe the most likely place for landfall is around the NC/SC border at the moment. I know many want to focus on what happens after 48-72 hours; however, all the models diverge because the storm is expected to slow down or even stall. This makes any forecast after the 72 hour mark extremely difficult, which is why the current cone of uncertainty is over 450 miles wide... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 This has to be a surprising look for folks along the coast south of Charleston that may have considered themselves out of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Plus you have a whole lot of places exposed to northeast quadrant storm surge that weren't before. This one would change everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 9 minutes ago, Jet Stream Rider said: This has to be a surprising look for folks along the coast south of Charleston that may have considered themselves out of the woods. Yes that would an understatement. This was unfortunately the exact solution I was worried about early this morning considering the disturbing trends that have developed since last night's 00z run whichI assume had more upper air soundings and data. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Yup. That setup would be the worst since Hugo for the SC coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 The only way I can think of to make it worse is to bump the center offshore so it can stay stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjtysinger Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 If it stalled offshore would that cool the waters in turn weakining it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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