Wow Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 The GFS gets a clue.. poor thing 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justicebork Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 GFS stalls the center over Lumberton and provides a nice cooling drizzle for the Piedmont and Coastal Plain. Very interested to see the rainfall totals from Wilmington to RDU with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 1 minute ago, StormyClearweather said: It is a bit faster than the other guidance, which is probably a good sign in some ways and a bad sign in others. when the models run the ridging stronger its gonna be a bit faster.....exactly how the ridge is aligned matters too....gonna be one of those cases were short term wobbles and such can change the LF spot by 20-30 miles especially with a large eye....still shows the stall and rot over central/eastern NC.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Just now, downeastnc said: when the models run the ridging stronger its gonna be a bit faster.....exactly how the ridge is aligned matters too....gonna be one of those cases were short term wobbles and such can change the LF spot by 20-30 miles especially with a large eye....still shows the stall and rot over central/eastern NC.... Going to be some high rainfall totals again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 2m2 minutes ago 12z GFS rainfall through 8am, Saturday 32 inches just north of Cape Fear #Florence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 11, 2018 Author Share Posted September 11, 2018 The timing and strength of the OV ridge is gonna decide who and where the hammer is gonna drop. Some folks gonna need that hammer to help construct an Ark. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 GFS finally caved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mryanwilkes Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Sorry, as I know this is off topic... There used to be a thread that included radar / satellite imagery links, but I can no longer find it. Does anyone know where that is offhand? Thanks! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Looks like the UKMet brings it into Morehead City area (hr72), then into E NC (hr96), then SW to Greenville, SC (hr120) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: Going to be some high rainfall totals again. yep.....real issue is going to be speed though......stalling systems are the worst...but the chances a strong Cat 3 low 4 hitting keep going down as the storm slows in the approach....the approach angle will matter to....with a large eye its gonna be a big impact for a lot of coast....then the angle and speed it moves inland will impact who gets what winds.....the only thing I am sure of at this point is to much rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Just now, griteater said: Looks like the UKMet brings it into Morehead City area (hr72), then into E NC (hr96), then SW to Greenville, SC (hr120) yeah they are jumping all over now...its frustrating they were all so nice and clustered 24 hrs ago lol...... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 11, 2018 Author Share Posted September 11, 2018 Just now, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: GFS finally caved. Yep, the euro and its end suite has done a very consistent job from late last week. Upper sc coast to Brunswick County,New Hanover county. None of this kiss Hatteras hula loop shenanigans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 11, 2018 Author Share Posted September 11, 2018 10 minutes ago, griteater said: Looks like the UKMet brings it into Morehead City area (hr72), then into E NC (hr96), then SW to Greenville, SC (hr120) HWRF had this excat same track last night. Hit Morehead and went SW to Lumberton and spun itself out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 It's a long wait to see the 12z ECMWF now that it looks like we're clustering closer to the NC/SC border. There's not a lot of movement to the southwest that can happen before things start looking really ugly for Charleston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 40 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Wonder if there are any biases to breaking the ridge down too fast or keeping it in place too long, etc. that would be good to know here? Here's the 500mb trend on the Euro Ensemble near landfall time. The anomaly centers in 1) W Alaska, 2) off Pac NW coast, and 3) in SE Canada have sharpened over time....so, after the hurricane leaves the steering influence of the Bermuda High, it's getting stuck in the Carolinas underneath the increasingly more amplified eastern U.S. ridge. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Thanks, Grit. Great visual. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 It's wild to think that it has taken this long, but it's great to now see the hurricane center watch/warning products shown inland as opposed to just at the coast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lj0109 Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 1 minute ago, StormyClearweather said: Then crawls west across Central SC. Brutal for NE SC and Eastern NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Does anyplace show the wind field for GFS-FV3 like weather.us does for the Euro? edit: I'm blind. Don't know how I missed it in the drop down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Ukie hardly moves right after landfall...this would be worse IBX sound/river surge ever if it verifies.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenkins Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 That FV-3 run is pretty brutal for both wind and rain impacts in NC/SC. I'll post the precip clown map once it gets out to ~132 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 1 hour ago, NCSNOW said: The timing and strength of the OV ridge is gonna decide who and where the hammer is gonna drop. Some folks gonna need that hammer to help construct an Ark. Please FedEx Lumber to ME ASAP... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Ukie landfall and two plots 12hrs or so apart after landfall...... 12 hrs after landfall 24 hrs after landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 The HWRF would swamp much of NC with very heavy precip rates. The storm comes in near Wilmington and then slowly moves east/NE with heavy rain around the center and then to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, FallsLake said: The HWRF would swamp much of NC with very heavy precip rates. The storm comes in near Wilmington and then slowly moves east/NE with heavy rain around the center and then to the north. Every single model swamps NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Euro run looks very similar so far out to hr27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Wind field is expanding. Hurricane-force winds have expanded outward and now extend up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. Tropical-storm-force winds have also expanded and now extend outward up to 170 miles (280 km) from the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Euro a good bit east at 48......close to the 12Z ukie track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Euro a good bit east at 48...... identical to the gfs at 48 EDIT: now it is a bit further east at 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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