Dunkman Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 10 minutes ago, griteater said: This says the TVCN is a combination of: AVNI (GFS), EMXI (ECMWF, or Euro), HWFI (HWRF), CTCI (NRL COAMPS-TC w/GFS initial boundary conditions), and EGRI (UKMet) https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/modelsummary.shtml Yeah it could have been COAMPS instead of HMON. Those are the models they used last year. For some reason I thought they had tweaked it this year but I've been trying to find where I saw it and can't so there's a good chance I just imagined it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Not much change on 12Z guidance.....still has the stall/turn 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Not much change on 12Z guidance.....still has the stall/turn It looks like the stall is happening offshore on most of those. If this trend continues, it would be terrible for beach erosion/flooding/surge but probably better for inland areas, as there should be some weakening of the storm. Wouldn't it be nice for once to have a storm that maintained motion for the duration? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Looking at the Euro ensemble tracks from 00z it's almost as if they smoothed out the tracks that many of the other models are seeing. Like instead of going NW until off of ILM and then due west the EPS just goes WNW the entire time and ends up in more or less the same spot after 120-144h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 1 hour ago, downeastnc said: The storm needs to come to the Euro then cause so far the track is north of all the recent Euro runs and the Euro is performing worse than most the others....so far...also the storm appears to be moving more NW than anything right now though its tough to tell with the ugly eye but i imagine the separation to the Euro runs is just getting bigger...the FV3 has been very consistent its landfall point hasnt moved more than 10-20 miles run to run for the last 6-8 runs at least.....GFS doing very well so far with track verification...surprisingly enough....still gotta take the blend of the two and thats about where the NHC has it.....the models are doing a bit of back and forth the last day and that probably will continue but overall ILM to MHX is where this likely ends up.... 49 minutes ago, downeastnc said: The NHC uses the TVCN for their forecast track its a consensus of the models.....below is the consensus track and verification so far....this is why the NHC has its cone and ath where it does....obviously as the models move around this will too but I doubt we see them move the landfall spot more than 50 miles either way at this point.....there landfall point will shift west 10-15 miles at 11am..... Personally, I was hoping the last Euro run was on to something with it being farther south and into SC, and Flo wouldn't track over the Triangle. But now this has pretty much crushed that hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 22 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: It looks like the stall is happening offshore on most of those. If this trend continues, it would be terrible for beach erosion/flooding/surge but probably better for inland areas, as there should be some weakening of the storm. Wouldn't it be nice for once to have a storm that maintained motion for the duration? It's amazing how the models are still up in the air where the storm will stall. Hope it stalls offshore 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Man that eye can't get itself together on the IR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 At least the stall will keep the full strength eyewall winds from getting as far inland as they would with a fast moving system. I'm looking at that as a good thing. Yes, the flooding from rainfall will be worse, but if that is spread out over several days many places will be able to handle it better. And less wind inland means less power outages which keeps the pumps running. I realize its not great, but maybe its something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gman Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Up to this point, I was trying to get my son and daughter in law to leave Chapel Hill and come here. Now it looks like there is just as much potential for worse weather here than in CH. I guess it will be Thursday before we know where it’s going after it hits near the N.C./SC line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kilgore Trout Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 13 minutes ago, Jet Stream Rider said: At least the stall will keep the full strength eyewall winds from getting as far inland as they would with a fast moving system. I'm looking at that as a good thing. Yes, the flooding from rainfall will be worse, but if that is spread out over several days many places will be able to handle it better. And less wind inland means less power outages which keeps the pumps running. I realize its not great, but maybe its something. I have to respectfully disagree. Yes, it limits wind damage further inland, but a stall could produce astronomical flooding in eastern NC. I would much rather see a faster moving storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, Kilgore Trout said: I have to respectfully disagree. Yes, it limits wind damage further inland, but a stall could produce astronomical flooding in eastern NC. I would much rather see a faster moving storm. I realize that. And I'm not talking about what I prefer, but rather maybe a slight good spot in an otherwise dreadful situation. Yes the flooding could be similar to what happened with Floyd. And that's the worst I have seen in downeast NC. Still both are true. I think the thing that surprised many people with Hugo, Fran and Hazel is that the fast forward motion brought the worst of the eyewall winds so far inland. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 950mb/130mph at 11am. I'm a little surprised they didn't bump the winds back up to 140 given what recon found but it hardly matters. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Allan Huffman has landfall still between Cape Fear and Cape Lookout, but move the inland track further south. https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/1039497772590878720 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 I'm in Jacksonville and I was planning on riding out the storm but the recent model runs showing a stalling situation is a little scary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 ICON still stubbornly east of the rest ( well except GFS ) in over Cape Lookout moving NNW slowly.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Mandatory evacuation order is rescinded for Jasper, Beaufort, and Colleton Counties (except for Edisto Beach in Colleton County). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Glad to see less rain for Raleigh. Glad to see the winds will be lots better. So far anyway. I guess because they think she will dispense herself on the coastal counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 GFS is a little south early on out to hr18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 1 minute ago, griteater said: GFS is a little south early on out to hr18 Its frustrating cause now this stupid stall is gonna make getting this right hard on the models.....when and how fast it stalls will matter a lot obviously....the models dont have the skill to pinpoint it at all either at least not to within 50-75 miles....its going to come down to nowcasting the center as it approaches..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 yep gfs south and west thru 36 as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 GFS is still south out to hr39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 13 minutes ago, Regan said: Glad to see less rain for Raleigh. Glad to see the winds will be lots better. So far anyway. I guess because they think she will dispense herself on the coastal counties. Selfishly we want to be as far sw of the eye & eyewall as we can. Having this projected to pass anywhere south of the triangle in my opinion is not good. Doubt it is going across SC so anywhere north of there is just too close. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Wonder if there are any biases to breaking the ridge down too fast or keeping it in place too long, etc. that would be good to know here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Looks like it's turning wnw at 49 on a heading for Myrtle Beach. Edit: Lol 48. What's an hour among bad models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 GFS out to 48, it looks like it is heading roughly toward the NC/SC border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 4 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Selfishly we want to be as far sw of the eye & eyewall as we can. Having this projected to pass anywhere south of the triangle in my opinion is not good. Doubt it is going across SC so anywhere north of there is just too close. Sure. I don’t like being on this side of her but it’s still encouraging to see that’s she may drain herself and be a depression here and not a cat 1. Basically taking what I can get for now. Maybe it’ll shift more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 GFS and getting a clue 3 days late. Name a more iconic duo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Makes landfall just north of the SC border at HR 66. The GFS definitely isn't seeing the weakening from the upwelling, which will happen with that track, so who knows what that does to the eventual track/landfall location of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 It is a bit faster than the other guidance, which is probably a good sign in some ways and a bad sign in others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 CMC has shifted south a bit too from prev run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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