northwestgastormdawg Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Is it me or has the path shifted more NW and east once on shore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 1 minute ago, CaryWx said: Is it me or has the path shifted more NW and east once on shore? Not you, I see it too. Much closer to MHC now. Not good for us at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 1 hour ago, yotaman said: I bought one off of Amazon and expect it Wednesday. Anyone buying a generator or who has one should seriously look into the motor snorkel. It pays for itself not having to buy a tri fuel gen and works great. I have zero affiliation with them, just my own experience using it on our generator. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 11 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Is it me or has the path shifted more NW and east once on shore? It’s about a 50 mile shift to the NW since this morning’s 11:00 AM advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmh90 Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 19 minutes ago, northwestgastormdawg said: This looks like a worst case scenario for Greenville, NC and Wilmington, NC. They are the two most populated cities in Eastern NC and filled with college students from all over that may not be familiar with how dangerous Hurricanes can be. I seriously hope something changes in these next few days. This could turn out to be really bad considering most of the college kids in Greenville live in areas that are very prone to flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 1 hour ago, WeatherNC said: I am likely in the market for a generator tomorrow too. Point of clarification on the above post and based on local media, Carteret is just maditory on the barrier islands starting in the AM. Tomorrow is the action day for the coast, Wednesday would be for prone interior. Indland counties will likely put out voluntaries as Beaufort is already doing I just secured a hotel room in Beaufort, for Wednesday pm until Friday at noon, so I'm hoping they don't close it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 New NHC track forecast take it from extream Western Wake County on the 5 pm update to Extream Eastern Wake County and over Wake Forest on the 11 pm track update. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Well, I guess coming in at Morehead City instead of Wilmington would be a little better for the Triangle folks. Also looks to be coming in 6 hours later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 GFS is a tad West of 18Z at hour 18. Ridge looks a like stronger lets see wherer it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 1 hour ago, downeastnc said: Plenty of canes have stalled on or just off the coast.....usually though the models wouldn't be this clustered. The 00Z guidance is scary tight and the timing is getting well inside 72 hrs so just how much movement can there be in this range.....ultimately though if this thing stalls and loops offshore and misses altogether will anyone be that shocked......there just isn't much support for that at this time that all might change here in a few hrs with the 00Z's. @Downeastnc remember this? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CLTwx Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 My best party week at UNCW.... recall watching the Weather Channel at Red Dogs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 5 minutes ago, SENC said: @Downeastnc remember this? Which storm was that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 GFS is definitely West of at hour 54. Ridge is definitely stronger. Not sure it stays off the coast this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 59 minutes ago, yotaman said: Ok, that explains it. It is a hard call and really is a no win situation. It is looking more and more like SC will be spared the worse, but based on the forecasts and possibility of a SC landfall you kinda have to male the call, and make it far enough ahead of time for people to plan and act. If it indeed keeps trending NE and farther away, there will be LOTS of frustrated people complaining about "having to evacuate for no reason", and "the forecasters are never right", etc, but of course the same people would be yelling the loudest if it actually hit and there had been no prep. Those people think weather is actually predictable and that forecasters should truly KNOW what it's going to do. He probably could have waited another 24 hours, but is obviously trying to err on the side of caution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Just now, WidreMann said: Which storm was that? Dianne , 1984, If I recall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CLTwx Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Just now, SENC said: Dianne , 1984, If I recall Yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 I'm amazed at how small the western part of the precip shield is. GFS doesn't give any rain for central and western coastal plain, even though winds pick up. Strange. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 4 minutes ago, SENC said: Dianne , 1984, If I recall Hurricane Diana of 9/11/1984 to 9/13/1984 was the reason I pursued my meteorology degree at NC State and became obsessed with hurricanes. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 23 minutes ago, SENC said: @Downeastnc remember this? Of course my first real hurricane Diana popped my tropical cherry.....I was 12 and she was the first real threat i remember..... It appears our two eastern outliers the GFS and ICON have shifted west a bit.....ICON also no biting on the stall and west drift all the others have maybe that is a real trend \...its a ****ty one though lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Current GFS loops it in the vicinity of Ocracoke Inlet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 7 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Of course my first real hurricane Diana popped my tropical cherry.....I was 12 and she was the first real threat i remember..... It appears our two eastern outliers the GFS and ICON have shifted west a bit.....ICON also no biting on the stall and west drift all the others have maybe that is a real trend \...its a ****ty one though lol best I could find ATM.. https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/1520-0493(2001)129<1859%3ANSOTGO>2.0.CO%3B2 Looking for the atmospheric maps I'm coming up empty ATM.. Edit too add ALOT of Folks have even forgetting this one.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 ICON sits over the Pamlico sounds for ever......its wind map has MBY with 60mph or better gust for 24 hrs.....that would blow..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 This may be the nuttiest gfs run I have ever seen 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 GFS now south of ILM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 1 minute ago, Disco-lemonade said: This may be the nuttiest gfs run I have ever seen I think that until I see the next GFS 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 The take away from the GFS and ICON is they both came further west closer to the consensus track, this lessens the odds of a OTS track or even a stall and rot east of Hatteras......they also both have the stall and west drifts although the GFS appears to want to take that to a whole other level. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 10 minutes ago, downeastnc said: GFS now south of ILM how can I say.. Ohh oo. Caving to the earlier Euro Tracks? break out the beer? Fire up the grille? Break out the CROW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 GFS said "Surprise, here you go interior Carolinas!" 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclean02 Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 So I guess we are good in Charlotte no worries now ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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