Hurricane Florence

[Brick Tamland]

6 minutes ago, thunderwolf said:

Wow that is a lot of spread between one model's ensemble members. There are even a few GFS like runs in there too.

Yes it is a pretty good spread. But the tightest clusters appear to be between the SC/NC border and Morehead City. Right now that looks like the are to bet on for landfall. Of course, where and what direction she goes after hitting land has a big implication on how bad things will be inland. 

[StormyClearweather]

Just now, DopplerWx said:

that is yesterday's run

Odd. It's showing a different image here than the actual page.

http://wx.graphics/models/eps_florence.png

 

[thunderwolf]

3 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

that is yesterday's run

Wow, good call. I don't know how to post the image of today's run, but here's a link https://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/images/AL06_2018091012_ECENS_0-120h_large.png

Spread does seem a little more reasonable with today's 12z than the one I had erroneously mentioned earlier.

[Jenkins]

Embedding the 12z EPS since it looks like peeps are having some issues. 

 

[Dunkman]

Point stands though it's still a large spread at 84 hours. 

[thunderwolf]

7 minutes ago, Dunkman said:

Point stands though it's still a large spread at 84 hours. 

Yes the landfall probability distribution seems reasonable to me. <10% chance of OTS, about 10% of moving into GA, 20% chance Charleston area, 60% from about MYB to MHC.

[Solak]

Recon: 940mb

[lakeeffectkid383]

1 minute ago, Solak said:

Recon: 940mb

122kt at the surface in the SW eyewall on the latest dropsonde.

[ncskywarn]

120 kts 939 pressure at 5pm

[shaggy]

So last year Irma was as big and bad of a hurricane we had seen in many many years. Would the Florence threat be considered greater now? Cat 4 winds and surge over a much more populated area with exceptional rainfall and inland flooding.

[Solak]

5:00 PM AST Mon Sep 10
Location: 25.4°N 61.1°W
Moving: WNW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 939 mb
Max sustained: 140 mph

[rjtysinger]

NHC track looks mostly the same, maybe a tick to the east.

[Disco-lemonade]

2 minutes ago, shaggy said:

So last year Irma was as big and bad of a hurricane we had seen in many many years. Would the Florence threat be considered greater now? Cat 4 winds and surge over a much more populated area with exceptional rainfall and inland flooding.

Yea this is bad, and it's not like usual where we get a sheared out destabilized mess. This is something extraordinary 

[tramadoc]

NHC track looks mostly the same, maybe a tick to the east.

They said they moved it east, but a bit west of model consensus.

 

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

 

 

 

[ncskywarn]

The new track forecast is a touch to the East and brings a center right over extream Western Wake County.

[rjtysinger]

4 minutes ago, tramadoc said:

They said they moved it easy, but a bit west of model consensus.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk
 

Yeah, I’m going to follow their track for now.  Models shift every 6 hours and it does “me” no good to follow each and every shift. Not sure of the eye wall diameter in nm but just south of New River inlet atm.

[thekidcurtis]

Shift in NHC cone.

 

[NC_hailstorm]

Euro,Ukie and FV3(3 highest performing models)look pretty close now,think we're close to our track now.

Euro with a big shift east getting in line with the other two,its stiil a tick too far west while the Ukie is still a tick too far east in my opinion.

Have to say the FV3 has been really good on this storm so far.

[shaggy]

5 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said:

Euro,Ukie and FV3(3 highest performing models)look pretty close now,think we're close to our track now.

Euro with a big shift east getting in line with the other two,its stiil a tick too far west while the Ukie is still a tick too far east in my opinion.

Have to say the FV3 has been really good on this storm so far.

Its sort of hard to sit here and fathom what we could be facing. Possibility of feet of rain and hurricane force gusts from Raleigh to the coast? No way that can happen right?

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

8 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said:

Euro,Ukie and FV3(3 highest performing models)look pretty close now,think we're close to our track now.

Euro with a big shift east getting in line with the other two,its stiil a tick too far west while the Ukie is still a tick too far east in my opinion.

Have to say the FV3 has been really good on this storm so far.

I didn’t see the Euro shifting way east. Especially not it’s ensembles. 

[Casualbrain]

2 minutes ago, shaggy said:

Its sort of hard to sit here and fathom what we could be facing. Possibility of feet of rain and hurricane force gusts from Raleigh to the coast? No way that can happen right?

Let's hope it doesn't happen - but things are looking grim.

 

[Solak]

One major takeaway from the 5PM discussion.

None of the guidance suggest that Florence has peaked in intensity,
and this is supported by a continuation of a low-shear environment,
and even warmer waters over the next 36 hours.  Thus, the intensity
forecast is raised from the previous one, bringing Florence close
to category 5 strength tomorrow. Near landfall, the vertical wind
shear could increase, along with the increasing likelihood of
eyewall cycles.  While the intensity forecast shows some weakening
of the maximum winds near landfall, the wind field is expected to
grow with time, which increases the storm surge and inland wind
threats.  The bottom line is that there is high confidence that
Florence will be a large and extremely dangerous hurricane,
regardless of its exact intensity.

[Wow]

After Irma,  I'm still giving equal chances from CHS to the OBX

[KPITSnow]

So since this is going to be approaching at a rather odd angle for the area (more e to w than s to n) does that increase surge potential since it basically can work up a long fetch of surge?

[downeastnc]

Just now, KPITSnow said:

So since this is going to be approaching at a rather odd angle for the area (more e to w than s to n) does that increase surge potential since it basically can work up a long fetch of surge?

Yep and with it slowing the east flow over the sounds will just lock in and not allow it to recede.....the river here will run backwards and then the rain runoff will try to go downstream and meet the surge tide and it will just be a mess.......until the surge runs out the rivers cant drain.

[Solak]

Good answer, Downeast. I'm sure you've seen that from previous storms. I've seen it to some extent when I lived in KDH and had the sounds back up, then have to deal with the return flow with the backside winds.

[Solak]

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/2100Z 25.4N  61.1W  120 KT 140 MPH
 12H  11/0600Z 26.0N  63.2W  130 KT 150 MPH
 24H  11/1800Z 27.0N  66.2W  135 KT 155 MPH
 36H  12/0600Z 28.6N  69.3W  135 KT 155 MPH
 48H  12/1800Z 30.4N  72.2W  130 KT 150 MPH
 72H  13/1800Z 33.7N  77.0W  120 KT 140 MPH
 96H  14/1800Z 35.6N  78.8W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
120H  15/1800Z 36.5N  79.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND

[WidreMann]

10 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

I didn’t see the Euro shifting way east. Especially not it’s ensembles. 

But they did: https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/800-w-320-n/2018091012-240-florence.html. Compare with 00z.

[KPITSnow]

1 minute ago, downeastnc said:

Yep and with it slowing the east flow over the sounds will just lock in and not allow it to recede.....the river here will run backwards and then the rain runoff will try to go downstream and meet the surge tide and it will just be a mess.......until the surge runs out the rivers cant drain.

I’m very concerned. I have family in Charleston, and also sunset beach, NC. The ones in sunset beach don’t live in the barrier island, but they are maybe less than a mile from the sound. 

 

I know track is key. If it hits north of them, they are probably ok. If it hits near the nc/sc border, the ones in sunset beach are frankly screwed, and I doubt they will evacuate. 

 

 

[ncskywarn]

Another interesting fact pointed out by the NHC. Also has to do with the destructive potential of this storm. The fact that it has doubled in size in the last 12 hours.  Edit: That was actually the extent of the hurricane force winds.