griteater Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 Dust off the model performance thread? Don't answer that I think the new GFS (FV3) has a better chance of verifying than the current one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 That dropscond though.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justicebork Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 Come on GFS take this thing wide right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 6 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Yeah if there is a bigger turn north than modeled it wont probably show up till very late in the game....which is why hurricanes suck.....though in this range you expect smaller corrections....I expect the outliers to meet in the middle so I still say Kure Beach up to Emerald Isle is still IMO the best bet for landfall.... Can't disagree with any of that. You would likely get eye or eyewall in Greenville with that solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 Pray the GFS is on to something. Maybe the stronger Flo gets, the better chance it turns out to sea. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 Any chance the forecasted "stall" could take place off shore? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 2m2 minutes ago Well those of us hoping the GFS would come into agreement with the other guidance may have to wait another cycle. The 12z through 90 hours has it stalled just offshore of Hatteras #Florence Again just what the model shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 NWS Newport/MoreheadVerified account @NWSMoreheadCity 2m2 minutes ago #FlorencUpdate: Hurricane Florence is now a Category 4 storm with sustained winds of 130 mph. Minimum pressure is 946 mb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 CAT 4!!!!! 368 WTNT61 KNHC 101556 TCUAT1 Hurricane Florence Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 1200 PM AST Mon Sep 10 2018 ...FLORENCE BECOMES A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE... Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Florence has continued to rapidly stregthen and has maximum sustained winds near 130 mph (195 km/h). The latest minimum central pressure based on data from the aircraft is 946 mb (27.93 inches). SUMMARY OF 1200 PM AST...1600 UTC...INFORMATION --------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.0N 60.2W ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM SSE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1230 MI...1985 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.93 INCHES $$ Forecaster Blake 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 Latest UKMet run (12z) moves it thru Jacksonville, NC / Emerald Isle area, then into SE portion of VA. Previous run at 00z brought it into Cape Hatteras 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 Just now, bigshaq00 said: New to weather, so what could the triangle see from this storm. Could we see hurricane force winds or tropical force winds? Wind? How about everything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 1 minute ago, bigshaq00 said: New to weather, so what could the triangle see from this storm. Could we see hurricane force winds or tropical force winds? Wind? Looks like hurricane force based on the latest track from the NHC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 cat 4 already. dang Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, bigshaq00 said: New to weather, so what could the triangle see from this storm. Could we see hurricane force winds or tropical force winds? Wind? Hurricane Center has wind products here... https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/145000.shtml?tswind120#wcontents https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/145000.shtml?mltoa34#contents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 10 minutes ago, griteater said: Latest UKMet run (12z) moves it thru Jacksonville, NC / Emerald Isle area, then into SE portion of VA. Previous run at 00z brought it into Cape Hatteras where did you get 12Z alreadyy weather.us and meteo havent updated for me yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, downeastnc said: where did you get 12Z alreadyy weather.us and meteo havent updated for me yet The French site - http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=60&carte=1021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 14 minutes ago, bigshaq00 said: New to weather, so what could the triangle see from this storm. Could we see hurricane force winds or tropical force winds? Wind? Please refer to the NHC forecast track cone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 just me, but im not taking the GFS. especially the latest run. I'd but the FV3 first. something isn't right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 12Z GGEM has the center between Lookout and HAT at 12Z Friday...FWIW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ragtop50 Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 19 minutes ago, bigshaq00 said: New to weather, so what could the triangle see from this storm. Could we see hurricane force winds or tropical force winds? Wind? https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/145000.shtml?hwind120#wcontents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 CMC is a little north of previous run thru hr69, tracking toward the southern Outer Banks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justicebork Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 Am I seeing this right? The GFS stalls it 100 miles offshore where it bombs out before looping around and making landfall south of Hatteras at 162 as a 918 mb incendiary device. OK then. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 Just now, Regan said: just me, but im not taking the GFS. especially the latest run id but the FV3 first. something isn't right. Its all about the blend.......some models will be to far right, some will be to far left, that's why the NHC etc use a consensus and go down more pr less down the middle....so far the FV3 has been pretty good at being in the middle of the spread 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 10, 2018 Author Share Posted September 10, 2018 Off of masters site/blog: to 2012. Figure 5. Maximum of the "Maximum Envelope of Waters" (MOM) storm tide image for a composite maximum surge for a large suite of possible mid-strength Category 3 hurricanes (sustained winds of 120 mph) hitting at high tide (a tide level of 2.3) near the North Carolina/South Carolina border. What’s plotted here is the storm tide--the height above ground of the storm surge, plus an additional rise in case the storm hits at high tide. Empty brownish grid cells with no coloration show where no inundation is computed to occur. Inundation of 15 -22’ can occur in a worst-case scenario along most of the coast. Note that not all sections of the coast will experience this surge level simultaneously; the peak values would occur near and to the right of the storm's center where it makes landfall. The image was created using the National Hurricane Center’s Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model. See our storm surge inundation maps for the U.S. coast for more information. A storm surge of 15 - 20' possible from Florence The South Carolina and North Carolina coasts are extremely vulnerable to high storm surges, due to the large area of shallow water offshore. Two of the three historical Category 4 hurricanes that have hit this region generated a storm tide 18 - 20 feet: Hugo of 1989 and Hazel of 1954. The other storm--Gracie of 1959--did not (it hit at low tide, significantly reducing the coastal flooding). The storm tide is the combination of the storm surge and the normal lunar tide, measured in height above sea level. The National Hurricane Center uses the terminology “height above ground level” when discussing the storm tide, meaning the height the surge (plus tide) gets above the normal high tide mark. If Florence is a Category 3 or 4 hurricane at landfall, it has the capability of generating a 20-foot surge along a 10 – 40 mile stretch of the coast where the right-hand eyewall comes ashore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 8 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Its all about the blend.......some models will be to far right, some will be to far left, that's why the NHC etc use a consensus and go down more pr less down the middle....so far the FV3 has been pretty good at being in the middle of the spread Exactly this. Actually the TVCN consensus model has been beating even the official NHC forecast tracks recently. Similarly, the IVCN consensus is the best bet for intensity. As for the GFS, I really think it's just missing on the strength of that ridge. Be nice if the GFS got one right for a change though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjwise Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 21 minutes ago, Justicebork said: Yawn. We see this 5 or 6 times each winter. I don't think the GFS models cold water upwelling or if it does it doesn't do it very well. Cat 5 comes to a complete halt just east of the OBX and maintains Cat 5 strength for over 48 hours? I don't think so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 Pretty big NW wobble currently...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, mjwise said: I don't think the GFS models cold water upwelling or if it does it doesn't do it very well. Cat 5 comes to a complete halt just east of the OBX and maintains Cat 5 strength for over 48 hours? I don't think so. Not sure if this has been posted yet...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 Well if the GFS is right the eye will go right over me..........at noon..........on Monday lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 Pressure 942.8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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