Solak Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 11:00 AM AST Mon Sep 10 Location: 25.0°N 60.0°W Moving: W at 13 mph Min pressure: 962 mb Max sustained: 115 mph 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, Solak said: 11:00 AM AST Mon Sep 10 Location: 25.0°N 60.0°W Moving: W at 13 mph Min pressure: 962 mb Max sustained: 115 mph Notice the doubled forward speed and the flatter track compared to 5am 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 This will be one of the things we want to keep an eye on (pardon the pun) Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 New advisory cone: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 They have it as a hurricane farther inland now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 Charleston Southern University is closing starting TODAY. During the last few hurricanes they have always been one of the first schools to close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JovialWeather Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 5 minutes ago, calculus1 said: New advisory cone: That's a tough track for the RDU area I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 1 minute ago, JovialWeather said: That's a tough track for the RDU area I would think. Worst possible scenario for the Triangle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 I've scrolled back several pages now but can't find it - isn't this showing more westward movement than previously expected? Still feeling a like we'll see landfall closer to Myrtle Beach or the border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 17 minutes ago, Solak said: 11:00 AM AST Mon Sep 10 Location: 25.0°N 60.0°W Moving: W at 13 mph Min pressure: 962 mb Max sustained: 115 mph I thought the GFS had Florence going in a more wnw direction by this point. Staying west this long can not be good for the South Carolina coast and gives the Euro solution more creditably. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 14 minutes ago, Solak said: 11:00 AM AST Mon Sep 10 Location: 25.0°N 60.0°W Moving: W at 13 mph Min pressure: 962 mb Max sustained: 115 mph Florence has been moving practically due west the last 6 hours...straddling 25.0°N. For those wondering about how unusual this scenario is with Florence, interesting graphics were produced several days ago... On Sept 5...only a few impacted the US where Florence was on this date. A few days later, a new graphic from I believe Weather Underground showed since 1851, 67 storms passing within 200 miles of Florence... ZERO made a US impact... Florence likely will be rewriting the rulebook. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 Just a couple of notes: Thank you again everyone for all the great posts! Thank you Solak for all the latest info! The previous advisory showed a WNW direction I think and now we are back to straight W. Maybe just a transient variation, but something to watch. As No snow for you noted above, this would favor the more suppressed track of the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 So we went from WNW to due west movement in he latest advisory. Interesting. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: So we went from WNW to due west movement in he latest advisory. Interesting. Yes. Latest WV to my eyes seems to have ridging trying to build NW of Bermuda as opposed to N 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 posted in main thread but it is south of nhc track. https://media.giphy.com/media/wHZcnh2bTCBA2f0a8i/giphy.gif 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sbcw0603 Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 2 hours ago, Sportybx said: Hi all down in SC and NC . I spend my vacation every year down in Litchfield beach and this past year while on vacation my son was diagnosed with luekimia . He was air flown from litchfield to Charleston SC children’s hospital . I’ve made some amazing friends while down there and honestly everyone from the south that I’ve met have been so friendly and nice . Helped my family out in the worst of times . So if this hurricane hits I just want you all to know we here in the Bronx are praying for all you . You all are amazing people and I hope all your family and friends are all safe . God bless you all Thank you! We will be praying for your son and family as well through his sickness!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 1 minute ago, Jet Stream Rider said: Just a couple of notes: Thank you again everyone for all the great posts! Thank you Solak for all the latest info! The previous advisory showed a WNW direction I think and now we are back to straight W. Maybe just a transient variation, but something to watch. As No snow for you noted above, this would favor the more suppressed track of the Euro. A lot of people are reading to much into the wobbles right now,the last few frames show a more WNW motion.....the storm is suppose to still be mostly W right now and its right on the GFS track which doesnt get it to 26N until 63W so thats mostly WNW from here....but the Euro and GFS tracks dont differ that much in the short term so its not favoring the Euro by staying west right now... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 Looks like Flo is starting to hulk up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 ICON at hour 63 is just a tad SW of 06Z ridge appears to be a little stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Durmite Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 With this latest advisory, would that mean damaging winds for the Raleigh/Durham area or are we still mostly talking extreme rainfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 Just now, Durmite said: With this latest advisory, would that mean damaging winds for the Raleigh/Durham area or are we still mostly talking extreme rainfall? Both. In spades. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 11 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: So we went from WNW to due west movement in he latest advisory. Interesting. It has my attention thats for sure!!! Were saturated 4 inches of rain would cause flooding here for us in Mcdowell let alone 10-20! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, downeastnc said: A lot of people are reading to much into the wobbles right now,the last few frames show a more WNW motion.....the storm is suppose to still be mostly W right now and its right on the GFS track which doesnt get it to 26N until 63W so thats mostly WNW from here....but the Euro and GFS tracks dont differ that much in the short term so its not favoring the Euro by staying west right now... Yes agreed, its a good point. I thought about that as well. Everyone is looking for anything to hang our hat on. We will likely be watching for just how much will the high pressure ridge break down and how fast will the more northern component take over (if at all) even as it approaches landfall on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 4 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Both. In spades. My favorite game! I think the Myrtle Beach or points N, will be the bullseye. No matter how long it stays on Ddue West movement, won’t matter. The runs today showing NW/SE orientation to the ridge, will still let it come N pretty hard 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 09.10.2018 Brunswick County has issued a mandatory evacuation for residents in unincorporated areas who live in low-lying and flood-prone areas or substandard or mobile homes, beginning at daylight (7 a.m.) Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 10 minutes ago, Jet Stream Rider said: Yes agreed, its a good point. I thought about that as well. Everyone is looking for anything to hang our hat on. We will likely be watching for just how much will the high pressure ridge break down and how fast will the more northern component take over (if at all) even as it approaches landfall on Thursday. Yeah if there is a bigger turn north than modeled it wont probably show up till very late in the game....which is why hurricanes suck.....though in this range you expect smaller corrections....I expect the outliers to meet in the middle so I still say Kure Beach up to Emerald Isle is still IMO the best bet for landfall.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 Pressure was 962mb at 11:00. Recon just hit the eye... 945mb! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 gfs pretty far east this run, wtf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 Not trying to be a weenie, but the GFS track assumes a NW trajectory right now. That isn't occurring so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 Just now, DopplerWx said: gfs pretty far east this run, wtf? It’s the GFS, didn’t get its nickname for no reason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now