BooneWX Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 West side looks like its getting eroded by dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 12 minutes ago, shaggy said: She still has the gulfstream over the next 6-12 hours per the 11am disco and some models showed her strengthening during that crossing. This is also VERY interesting part of the disco to me. The subtropical ridge to the northeast and east of Florence is now well-established between Bermuda and the U.S. mid-Atlantic region and extends westward into Virginia and the central Appalachians. This large-scale feature is expected to keep the hurricane moving northwestward today, followed by a turn toward the west at a much slower speed on Friday Never bought the hard south turn; and still don't. Think she drags right across the Sandhills of NC 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 14 minutes ago, btownheel said: Never bought the hard south turn; and still don't. Think she drags right across the Sandhills of NC It appears that she is already moving more to the west. Almost every model has her moving W then WSW. Now she may not make "hard south turn", but it's hard to go against modeling when there seems to be a general consensus. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Just had a short but heavy band move thru. It was quick and gusty. Only .12" feel out of it but it is pretty windy here. Probably in the 25 to 35 mph range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 3 minutes ago, ryan1234 said: It appears that she is already moving more to the west. Almost every model has her moving W then WSW. Now she may not make "hard south turn, but it's hard to go against modeling when there seems to be a general consensus. yeah, a lot of wishcasting it into northern nc it seems. literally every model shows a nw drift followed by a west southwest turn. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: yeah, a lot of wishcasting it into northern nc it seems. literally every model shows a nw drift followed by a west southwest turn. Problem is she has consistently been on the very northern edge of the guidance and damn near left the cone yesterday. I posted their disco about continuing it NW today due to the "well established" ridge. She may putthe brakes on and go due wnw right now but she hasn't done it yet and each hour that she moves NW puts her having to make a sharper turn. This could have large implications into central and eastern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 I am a mountain boy so please pardon if this is a stupid question but do the beaches of Brusnwick County's E to W orientation dampen, enhance or have no impact on the effects of storms like this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 9 minutes ago, shaggy said: Problem is she has consistently been on the very northern edge of the guidance and damn near left the cone yesterday. I posted their disco about continuing it NW today due to the "well established" ridge. She may putthe brakes on and go due wnw right now but she hasn't done it yet and each hour that she moves NW puts her having to make a sharper turn. This could have large implications into central and eastern NC. per the most recent recon pass the center as already begun the turn. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 https://twitter.com/StormVisuals/status/1040253237616619520 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 4 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: per the most recent recon pass the center as already begun the turn. Yup, it's beginning to make that turn for sure. Brad P's latest VLOG mentioned she's already moving west and even mentioned possible jumps to the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wendy Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Link to live storm reports - https://nwschat.weather.gov/lsr/#AKQ,CAE,CHS,FFC,GSP,ILM,JAX,LWX,HUN,BMX,EYW,MHX,RAH,RLX,RNK,TAE,TBW,MRX,MLB,MFL/201809130400/201809140359/0100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 GFS continues to track the system further north inland in SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Lot of moisture, rainfall looks impressive on the north side of the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Power outages already being reported in Havelock, Morehead, and Beaufort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 GFS, to me, ran the system in too high imo... I think it dives down further into SC than that last run showed because it is really slowing down now 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjtysinger Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 13 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: GFS, to me, ran the system in too high imo... I think it dives down further into SC than that last run showed because it is really slowing down now Let me guess, you’re from SC! Any scientific proof or just wish casting? I had a post deleted yesterday for wishcasting it to you! Even NHC said they had no confidence after landfall. That said I hope it’s all to SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Just now, rjtysinger said: Let me guess, you’re from SC! Any scientific proof or just wish casting? I had a post deleted yesterday for wishcasting it to you! The center blob looks like it is moving almost due west right now, that plus slowing in forward speed might kick it further down south-southwest west. This is going to be a long day and night for everybody, so even nowcasting is wishcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, rjtysinger said: Let me guess, you’re from SC! Any scientific proof or just wish casting? I had a post deleted yesterday for wishcasting it to you! Can we stop it with this tomfoolery already? You're from NC, obviously. And they aren't wishcasting. The GFS has sorta been an outliner this whole time. It's hard to go against the Euro and most the hurricane modeling guidance. Not the mention the NHC. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjtysinger Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Just now, ryan1234 said: Can we stop it with this tomfoolery already? You're from NC, obviously. And they aren't wishcasting. The GFS has sorta been an outliner this whole time. It's hard to go against the Euro and most the hurricane modeling guidance. Not the mention the NHC. Yes I’ll stop. The big difference is I don’t want it. Back to it ladies and gents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 13, 2018 Author Share Posted September 13, 2018 Anyone post the 4 day rainfall total for NC , out through Monday off GFS. Trying to see how much from the Raincaine , goofy thinks is gonna fall. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 7 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Anyone post the 4 day rainfall total for NC , out through Monday off GFS. Trying to see how much from the Raincaine , goofy thinks is gonna fall. Thanks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 UKMet moved south. The storm tracks SW along the SC coast, then west into southern SC, then up into SW NC / E TN....this matches up with the latest runs of the FV3 and Euro. Looks like 12z FV3 is running now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
taylorsweather Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 7 minutes ago, ryan1234 said: Can we stop it with this tomfoolery already? You're from NC, obviously. And they aren't wishcasting. The GFS has sorta been an outliner this whole time. It's hard to go against the Euro and most the hurricane modeling guidance. Not the mention the NHC. Not only that, but the 12z GFS now takes Florence SW along the coast and into the Georgetown, SC area. After that it takes it across central SC to Clemson in the far southwestern part of the upstate. That's a significant movement toward the Euro idea of a strong southern component before the drift west. We'll see what the Euro has to say in an hour, but at this time, the two models are only 75 miles apart in the path to the west, with the GFS being further north. If the GFS is correct, NC gets most of the rain. If the Euro is correct, SC and parts of NC get most of the rain. My feeling as someone 200 miles from the ocean is that the Euro has performed extremely well on Florence and has smelled out the wrinkles better, so I'm riding that model til the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 The eye is coming up on the continental shelf now so that will churn up the cooler water from underneath (good) but also set up the velocity and torque in the storm surge & waves (bad) to hit the coast. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hrtsdsn Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Eye looks to be wobbling a lot but seems to be generally moving wnw. Anyone else see this? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 It's gusting over 60 mph in a lot of places around Morehead City, Beaufort, Atlantoc Beach. I expect some hurricane force gusts soon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderwolf Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, yotaman said: Eye looks to be wobbling a lot but seems to be generally moving wnw. Anyone else see this? I can agree with this assessment. NHC still shows the movement as of the 1pm update NW at 10 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 12 minutes ago, thunderwolf said: I can agree with this assessment. NHC still shows the movement as of the 1pm update NW at 10 mph. recon shows a near due west turn over the past 3 passes. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Here's a good source for a variety of weather conditions all across the Southeast. Dropdown menu is on the left side. http://climate.ncsu.edu/map/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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