ncskywarn Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Looks like Northern model trends continue next up GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 GFS at 36 almost identical to 18Z. At 66 just a little East of 18Z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 GFS landfalls same spot as 18Z...heads inland over SE NC....then turns SW towards SC.....takes it a day to do that though and its onshore the entire time.....gonna be a monster rain maker though....travels less than 150 miles in 36 hrs......all of it spent over SE NC.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 It seems to be turning more west than south with each run and is now moving north of Florence, SC instead of southern SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbubba Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 The GFS has held serve through 66hrs. It doesn't come as far inland thus it is a little stronger later into the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Much higher rainfall totals for the triangle and triad this run. Over a foot in places Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 The 00z GFS looks like a monster rainmaker for NC. Looks like 12”+ from roughly the Triad eastward. A step up from 18z and a huge step up from prior runs before 18z yesterday, especially for central NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Center tracks from Darlington to just N of Columbia to Spartanburg to Hendersonville. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 UKMet looks a little south and west of the GFS track. Looks like it is just SE of Cape Fear at hr24, just NW of Charleston at hr48, then it runs west thru SC, then up into central/eastern TN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTPGiants Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 GFS has been this or close to it for a while. NAM is somewhat similar. Seems that we're just tossing them though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 IR and Dvorak continue to improve by the minute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 5 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: IR and Dvorak continue to improve by the minute Sorry...What is IR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSU_Pi Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 3 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Sorry...What is IR? Infrared satellite imagery Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Ryan Maue | weathermodels.com Retweeted Eric FisherVerified account @ericfisher 17m17 minutes ago More Here we go. Gulf Stream and lowering shear = one last run at reintensification for #Florence. Don't be surprised to wake up to a beast again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WTHunter Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 https://imgur.com/E0ImRki Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 And we’re back 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 8:00 AM EDT Thu Sep 13 Location: 33.1°N 75.1°W Moving: NW at 12 mph Min pressure: 956 mb Max sustained: 110 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Bet the NHC wished she would stop riding the very northern edge of the cone like she is...... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 The 8:00 AM update does appear to have switched the NHC track to a more westerly than southerly track after landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Another ERC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Bad time for maintenence, good time for a weakening Florence. Recon finding 956mb, similar to Fran 954mb at landfall I think, and an expanding wind field. Not sure she's gonna tighten back up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 1 minute ago, Solak said: Another ERC? There isn't even an eyewall left at this point so I'd say definitely not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 She wont spin up to much more probably she is to damn big but the hurricane force winds extend well out to the N and NE of the center and if she does stay 20-25 miles north of track and comes in closer to Jville/Swansboro and moves more west and less WSW after landfall she is gonna be able to really get that wind field deep into eastern and central NC, places like the Triangle that might be expecting less could get more this way.....her speed will help limit it somewhat, the flip side is your liable to have winds well into hurricane force for a long time.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Good news is the models seem to keep her moving west rather than a stall and turn SW.. good news at least for the coast. More headache for inland though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 4 minutes ago, Dunkman said: There isn't even an eyewall left at this point so I'd say definitely not. she has a very well defined eyewall man......look at radar..... https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=MHX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Also tornado threat over eastern NC is going to be high the next 6-12 hrs as the outer bands get inland....tornado watch just issued for us far east counties this will extend inland later I am sure.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 With the slight shift north and the expanding wind fields I have serious concerns for the Pamlico Sound /Tar River area around Little Washington. The downtown area there regularly floods with lesser systems. Anything approaching a 9-10' surge wont end well for those businesses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 5 minutes ago, bigshaq00 said: CMC showing a whole lot of rain to the triangle region and south/southeast I don’t understand how I only get 1.5-2” of rain, when the track goes over me or to my South?? GSP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmh90 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 13 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: With the slight shift north and the expanding wind fields I have serious concerns for the Pamlico Sound /Tar River area around Little Washington. The downtown area there regularly floods with lesser systems. Anything approaching a 9-10' surge wont end well for those businesses. It’s going to be really bad for those people. I’ve just recently moved to Greenville but lived in Washington since I was 4. You also have some low income areas that are prone to flood. I have a feeling that those people are gonna be hit hard too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ander Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 8 hours ago, SENC said: Wondering outloud here... Here in Wilmington... Our Shelters are at Max Cap. and OVERFLOWING Our City/County Emerg services are & have been SHIPPING The Locals, that are "overflowing the Shelters" here,, to the Triangle/RDU & Durham... BY BUS... By the Busload actually, LOTS of Buses.. Where are they putting those folks? If ander420 is telling us is true, (I cannot fathom it isn't).. WHERE are these Local Folks from HERE, being housed up there? Who are feeding them? HOW are they going to get back? There's been NO MENTION of this.. ANYWHERE... Just.. We are "shipping them "upstate",, Like Chattle.. Many, if NOT all, those folks in those Shelters from here,,, are Homeless Folks, many with Drug addictions.. Ander420 is raising a very, very good question(s)... MeanWhile... On My local radar... VVVVV W Well my wife works at UNC Chapel Hill and in prior storms they took in lots of UNCW students. They have some there now, not sure how many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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