LowCountryCat Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 18Z FV3 says not so fast GFS--not much different from 12Z. Edit: literally does not move from 66-72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Well that looks interesting 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Latest from NWS Raleigh NWS RaleighVerified account @NWSRaleigh 28m28 minutes ago An overview of the impacts we expect from #Florence across central NC. Impacts from high winds & flash flooding are extreme across the Coastal Plain, lessening the farther NW you go across the region. However, everyone should prepare for at least some impacts to life & property. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Meteogram 18z GFS gives Raleigh 8.41" 12z was 4.52" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 HMON with a 50 mile jump north with landfall....puts Bogue Banks in the north eyewall then moves west into Swansboro/Jville,....was just north of Cape Fear last run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 A foot+ of rain over most of NC per GFS 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5speed6 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Looks like 18Z para is still buying what the 12z euro was selling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 I really wouldn't put too much stock into whatever the "futurecast" or "RPM" or whatever the weather model news stations show... We use it because WSI, the company most stations (WRAL for example) runs that model and makes it super easy to manipulate that model into easy to understand graphics. Personally I hate it. WSI doesn't offer anything with the NAM 3km, which I would use. Point being, I would absolutely take anything the RPM is saying with a grain of salt and instead use hurricane models and globals. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Tropical Tidbits has a great video detailing what’s going on. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/2018/09/12/wednesday-evening-florence-to-begin-impacting-carolinas-tomorrow-watching-a-few-other-storms/ 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 12 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: I really wouldn't put too much stock into whatever the "futurecast" or "RPM" or whatever the weather model news stations show... We use it because WSI, the company most stations (WRAL for example) runs that model and makes it super easy to manipulate that model into easy to understand graphics. Personally I hate it. WSI doesn't offer anything with the NAM 3km, which I would use. Point being, I would absolutely take anything the RPM is saying with a grain of salt and instead use hurricane models and globals. We must have a good one, the local channel I like shows the Euro and GFS models along with others sometimes and explains the difference between them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 15 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: I really wouldn't put too much stock into whatever the "futurecast" or "RPM" or whatever the weather model news stations show... We use it because WSI, the company most stations (WRAL for example) runs that model and makes it super easy to manipulate that model into easy to understand graphics. Personally I hate it. WSI doesn't offer anything with the NAM 3km, which I would use. Point being, I would absolutely take anything the RPM is saying with a grain of salt and instead use hurricane models and globals. Problem is 99.9999% of folk cannot and will be basing their decisions off whatever local adfiliate they watch. <Shrugs> That’s problematic. This may be an issue with some stations, but I don’t think fisher would steer us wrong if he knew better and I know he’s looking at all models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 To elaborate. Most mets actually do use GFS and Euro in their shows. What people remember though, is the RPM, since its in 15 minute increments and it's easier to display, zoom in on, and understand. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Seems like people are forgetting how big the storm is and after landfall much of the precipitation decouples from the circulation, usually traveling North...but either way impacts can be very far from the low pressure center. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Slightly weaker again. 8:00 PM EDT Wed Sep 12 Location: 31.5°N 73.2°W Moving: NW at 16 mph Min pressure: 956 mb Max sustained: 115 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, Solak said: Slightly weaker again. 8:00 PM EDT Wed Sep 12 Location: 31.5°N 73.2°W Moving: NW at 16 mph Min pressure: 956 mb Max sustained: 115 mph Good, keep weakening. I would love to wake up tomorrow and see a sub 100 mph storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 She does look rough at the moment.....would rather this be her 10 hrs from landfall, to much time left for her to get her act together..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 12 minutes ago, yotaman said: Good, keep weakening. I would love to wake up tomorrow and see a sub 100 mph storm. You may see one at 11 if this is all recon finds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 20 minutes ago, downeastnc said: She does look rough at the moment.....would rather this be her 10 hrs from landfall, to much time left for her to get her act together..... A lot of people expected her to be a strong cat 4 or even a cat 5 by now. Let's hope the weakening continues. At her size it would take while to wind down unless more dry air gets entrained in her. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 For the umpteenth time today Florence is trying to figure out how to eye wall. Don't know how big of an issue dry air really is, we'd probably see more examples of outflow arcs racing away from the center on VIS if it was reallllllyyyyy a big problem. If southerly shear has been over the storm all day, that's probably helped with some sinking air on the south side. If winds aloft have a slight southerly component, then winds are starting to turn counterclockwise with height- backing winds. That's going to cause the air to sink, and it's probably why we haven't seen any CDO maintenance on that side of the storm whatsoever. If this shear really is expected to abate, we'll probably see any CDO persist a little longer. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 9 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: For the umpteenth time today Florence is trying to figure out how to eye wall. Don't know how big of an issue dry air really is, we'd probably see more examples of outflow arcs racing away from the center on VIS if it was reallllllyyyyy a big problem. If southerly shear has been over the storm all day, that's probably helped with some sinking air on the south side. If winds aloft have a slight southerly component, then winds are starting to turn counterclockwise with height- backing winds. That's going to cause the air to sink, and it's probably why we haven't seen any CDO maintenance on that side of the storm whatsoever. If this shear really is expected to abate, we'll probably see any CDO persist a little longer. What do you think about the coastline perhaps providing some friction to help Florence tighten up a bit? Seems like we've seen that happen in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 15 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: For the umpteenth time today Florence is trying to figure out how to eye wall. Don't know how big of an issue dry air really is, we'd probably see more examples of outflow arcs racing away from the center on VIS if it was reallllllyyyyy a big problem. If southerly shear has been over the storm all day, that's probably helped with some sinking air on the south side. If winds aloft have a slight southerly component, then winds are starting to turn counterclockwise with height- backing winds. That's going to cause the air to sink, and it's probably why we haven't seen any CDO maintenance on that side of the storm whatsoever. If this shear really is expected to abate, we'll probably see any CDO persist a little longer. Yeah she has tried all day.....still 24 hrs till landfall at least. She is doing work on the south side and looks a bit better..and its just odd watching a cane approach NC like this expecting it to hit....so use to them being south of ILM headed north not out east headed NW...that ridge better break down soon or she is going to come on in between ILM and MHX.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Just now, Dunkman said: What do you think about the coastline perhaps providing some friction to help Florence tighten up a bit? Seems like we've seen that happen in the past. I think that you need a much smaller storm in order for that to really have an effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 11 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: I think that you need a much smaller storm in order for that to really have an effect. I don't know man... Last 90 minutes or so the IR and Dvorak looks better 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 I’d listen to ILMRoss. Below is a photo of what he’s talking about. They flew into the area of dry air southwest of the hurricane today and I circled the dry air sounding as well from that flight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 There's no outflow on the SW/S/SE sides of the storm at the moment. This reminds me a bit of Isabel, a storm that was strong, but weakened to a CAT 2 at landfall. Still, there was a huge amount of storm surge damage in the vulnerable southern Outer Banks with that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 22 minutes ago, griteater said: There's no outflow on the SW/S/SE sides of the storm at the moment. This reminds me a bit of Isabel, a storm that was strong, but weakened to a CAT 2 at landfall. Still, there was a huge amount of storm surge damage in the vulnerable southern Outer Banks with that one. Even if she weakens to a cat 1, storm surge will still be huge all along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Just now, yotaman said: Even if she weakens to a cat 1, storm surge will still be huge all along the coast. She is already looking better, by this time tomorrow she could easily be a 120-130 mph storm again....intensity forecasting is a crap shoot....but she hasa solid large well defined rotation and could easily go off if she can get in somewhat better conditions which appears to be the case.....of more concern is the actual track she takes.....she has been NE of the NHC track by quite a bit all day....if she does end up making landfall up further north it changes things for me and you considerably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 12 minutes ago, downeastnc said: .....she has been NE of the NHC track by quite a bit all day.... crankyweatherguy @crankywxguy 42m42 minutes ago Continues to ride north of the 5pm cone. After they adjusted the 5pm cone north because...it was riding north of the 11am cone. Yeah, that's kind of a trend. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 This is also a cool visual to see where the shear and dry air higher in the atmosphere that’s causing the weakening. 6C4E12A6-FC87-4248-B9E9-B0462CF9F792.MP4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 NAM is NW made landfall near Wilmington at hour 33 moving W at hour 36 & 39 stalled on the NC & SC border at 42 & 45. Edit: still stalled same place hour 51. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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