Solak Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 5:00 PM AST Tue Sep 11 Location: 27.5°N 67.1°W Moving: WNW at 17 mph Min pressure: 945 mb Max sustained: 140 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 The new nhc cone seems like the best choice given model data. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 6 minutes ago, wake4est said: The new nhc cone seems like the best choice given model data. Much slower now. Calling for a 2 pm landfall on Friday instead of a Thursday night/early Friday morning landfall. Also looks to be a tick southwest than at 2 pm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 6 minutes ago, yotaman said: Much slower now. Calling for a 2 pm landfall on Friday instead of a Thursday night/early Friday morning landfall. Also looks to be a tick southwest than at 2 pm. Nightmare approach angle. A small shift 20 miles north or south changes landfall point considerably. Shift it 20 miles north and it comes ion over bogue banks or south and puts wilmington more in danger. Thats one wobble either direction away from significant differences in track. As it stands the center on that track would be at best 80 miles to my south so I might get some gusts to top end TS strength. Any north of track motion puts the center much closer to me which is why the angle matters so much here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 11 minutes ago, yotaman said: Much slower now. Calling for a 2 pm landfall instead of a nighttime landfall. Also looks to be a tick southwest than at 2 pm. Yeah the angle is interesting, and the eye is going to be huge so that pretty much puts Emerald Isle to Topsail under the gun.....and that's why even small changes will matter to many of us.....if it goes 50 miles further north before the turn then that a big deal for me....if it turns 50 miles sooner that would put Myrtle/ILM much more in play...there will be no way the models can get that right so it will be now casting time as the eye gets inshore.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 From the 5:00PM disco: The 12Z GFS model made a significant shift to the west, the UKMET made a shift to the east, and the ECMWF track has remained basically unchanged through 72 hours. As a result the consensus models have made only minor track shifts to the west. What is noticeable is that all of the global and regional models are indicating that the steering currents will collapse by 72 h when Florence is approaching the southeast U.S. coast. The weak steering currents are expected to continue through the weekend, which makes the forecast track on days 3-5 quite uncertain. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 It's early but GFS is a little Northeast of 12Z at hour 24 Edit: Even more NE at 36 ridge is not as strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, ncskywarn said: It's early but GFS is a little Northeast of 12Z at hour 24 Edit: Even more NE at 36 ridge is not as strong. Its pretty darn east so far thru 42 gonna have to stall and take a real hard left to get ILM..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTPGiants Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 4 minutes ago, ncskywarn said: It's early but GFS is a little Northeast of 12Z at hour 24 At 42 it's way east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Looks like another goofy solution is incoming... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 stalling out east of ILM and south of Lookout....would be so bad for the beaches.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 If anyone is interested Matt Lanza put together a list comprised of meteorologists, storm chasers etc. to be able to track Florence on Twitter. https://twitter.com/mattlanza/lists/florence 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTPGiants Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Looks to stall in about the spot where a bunch of Euro ensemble members stalled it. Maybe some agreement there finally. Everyone wants to know "when will it cross land", but the forecasts might need to evolve to something like "sits 50 miles offshore for a day". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Pretty crazy stuff from the KILM Disco.... This will likely be the storm of a lifetime for portions of the Carolina coast, and that`s saying a lot given the impacts we`ve seen from Hurricanes Diana, Hugo, Fran, Bonnie, Floyd, and Matthew. I can`t emphasize enough the potential for unbelievable damage from wind, storm surge, and inland flooding with this storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 the stalling crap is the worst as it makes it hard to know what to expect .....timing is everything if that stall happens 50-150 miles later she plows right on in as a Cat 3/4 and gets well inland.....I mean do the models really have the skill to be that precise with the timing of the stall? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Hour 90, still has not made official landfall. Looks to be moving SSW from 84 to 90. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Its a good question downeastnc. 18Z GFS stalls in Onslow bay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Well this one is going to hard to pin down. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 After a few days sitting there she would be a half a storm probably, no where near the pressures the GFS has between land interaction and upwelling she would be dying quickly.....the beaches though and the sounds would have been stuck in a surge tide for DAYS...... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Maybe premature. but GFS through 96 is what could be considered the worst scenario, a long stall just off the coast, then a small trek SW over new warm Gulf stream waters before making landfall.(If it does?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Hour 108...Headed to Georgia...maybe even southern Georgia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Neven made landfall moving SW at 108 off shore between Myrtle Beach & Charleston very Euro like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 120. makes a 45 degree turn straight to the heart of Charleston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 GFS scenario is actually the best I have seen. It stalls the storm just far enough offshore to miss the worst effects of the eyewall and torrential rain. Still offshore by 120 but bearing down on Charleston as what would be a much weakened system. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Just now, wncsnow said: GFS scenario is actually the best I have seen. It stalls the storm just far enough offshore to miss the worst effects of the eyewall and torrential rain. Still offshore by 120 but bearing down on Charleston as what would be a much weakened system. On this run, the NC coast still gets obliterated with rain and surge, and since the Storm moves SW, it goes over hot gulf stream waters and re intensifies quickly. Take verbatim, it's an awful run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Looks ugly for Charleston - the storm appears far enough offshore to stay strong and then looks like a Kiawah landfall which is always described as the worst case scenario here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, wncsnow said: GFS scenario is actually the best I have seen. It stalls the storm just far enough offshore to miss the worst effects of the eyewall and torrential rain. Still offshore by 120 but bearing down on Charleston as what would be a much weakened system. No way that was horrible for the beaches the thing will have a 20-30 mile wide eye the entire coast from Bogue Banks to ILM would be in extreme conditions and then the surge would push in and stay there since the storm isn't moving so the winds don't change and let the water out..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 1 minute ago, AsheCounty48 said: On this run, the NC coast still gets obliterated with rain and surge, and since the Storm moves SW, it goes over hot gulf stream waters and re intensifies quickly. Take verbatim, it's an awful run. It wont intensify much if any due to upwelling and it is still the best run I have seen for NC coasts compared to EURO and other solutions. 11 inches of rain compared to 35 on the EURO. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 GFS slides from Wilmington to Charleston and then pulls a weaker Hugo. Um, ok... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Florence decided really late to pull a Hugo track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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