Hurricane Florence

[FallsLake]

Rain totals are not bad (compared to other model runs) for inland areas. 6z GFS at hr 174:

 

[Ser Pounce]

43 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

HUGE changes overnight!! The mountain flooding look, is back again!!

Stage two begins today. Pack like we need to clear out.

[shaggy]

2 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

I think it went right on through like Fran did. This probably would be a record for NC.  

Hazel went from NC to Canada in roughly 18 hours.

Still not sure what to expect here in Greenville. This slow down is what gets me. The models shifting to a strong left hook as well could really reduce my impacts. If it slows way down right off shore and takes 20 hours to get to us then we will see much less wind. If it comes ashore and gets inland by 20-30 and is only 30-50 miles south of me then starts creeping then my winds would be much higher.

This slow down really has screwed with the forecast. Why couldn't this one just kept speed and blasted through instead of lingering for days. Hope the models can switch back to a steady NW movement. I remember with Mathew in this range they are started showing that crazy loop off the SE coast and then dropped it.

[Solak]

Well, it sure is different waking up under a Tropical Storm Watch this far inland.

NWS Raleigh‏Verified account @NWSRaleigh 47m47 minutes ago

For the first time, NWS Raleigh has issued a Hurricane Watch for a portion of it's forecast area. Previously, we issued Wind Advisories and High Wind Warnings. Now our Hurricane Watches and Tropical Storm Watches will match the same products issued at the coast. #ncwx

[downeastnc]

Yeah figures the closer we get the more cloudy the forecast gets.....just need it to not stall so much get in and get out do not need a rotting tropical low sitting over eastern and central NC for 2-3 days ugh....

[Solak]

NWS Newport/Morehead‏Verified account @NWSMoreheadCity 15m15 minutes ago

Based on the current track of #Florence, devastating wind gusts well over 100 mph are possible across coastal sections of southern ENC. Florence will be a major hurricane at landfall, it is urgent that you make proper preparations and follow all evacuation orders. #ncwx

[cmh90]

With this forecasted to stall as it enters N.C. what will happen to the winds? How quickly will it lose intensity?

[mackerel_sky]

Lane reversals begin at noon on I-26 from Charleston to CAE! I expect traffic passing into and through Greenville,SC, to increase quite a bit over the next 2 days!

[Brick Tamland]

Well, the Euro sure threw a wrench in things. Looked like we were getting a consensus focused on Wilmington to Morehead City, and then the Euro goes south into Myrtle Beach. Madness. God thing is it looks like Flo should take longer to get here, so there is more time to figure out where she will go. 

[NyCwEaThErFeEn]

This sounds very dangerous I would evacuate if you guys live anywhere near the storms impact. 

[Wow]

Don't fear the reaper

[Ser Pounce]

6 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Well, the Euro sure threw a wrench in things. Looked like we were getting a consensus focused on Wilmington to Morehead City, and then the Euro goes south into Myrtle Beach. Madness. God thing is it looks like Flo should take longer to get here, so there is more time to figure out where she will go. 

I'm looking forward to seeing whether it's an anomaly or something other models begin to pick up on as well. Those ensemble members southwest of Myrtle Beach are way too close for comfort!

 

If things do get bad and we clear out I'll be leaving behind two phones set up as webcams that should run until power, internet and mobile service go out. SCE&G trimmed a lot of trees away from power lines and it looks like a brontosaurus took a bite out of all of them. Some of these are guaranteed to drop limbs on one side or the other, or fall down entirely since they're so lopsided now.

[downeastnc]

9 minutes ago, cmh90 said:

With this forecasted to stall as it enters N.C. what will happen to the winds? How quickly will it lose intensity?

hard to say....on the current NHC track the center goes 50-60 miles SW of MBY so it will close to that for you as well....and thats the center of the center if its a 20-30 mile wide eye we are talking more like 40 miles to the inner eyewall....I have a hard time believing I only get 56 mph wind gust when a Cat 3 is sitting over Jacksonville with us within 50 miles of the core..... it depends on the structure of the storm too, also the gradient between the cane and the ridge will be a player on the NE side.....every storm is different though....Fran's center was 75-80 miles SW of us here and we gusted to 100 in that one, and I was in the SW eyewall of Isabel and never gusted over 55. 

[Jenkins]

FV3-GFS 6z loop

[Ser Pounce]

7 minutes ago, Wow said:

Don't fear the reaper

Our 'bug out' places are Aiken or Charlotte where we know people. Euro says Charlotte would be better, everyone else says good luck getting back from there, go to Aiken. There's plenty of watching and waiting in store today. We aren't taking anything in particular as gospel, there's just too much uncertainty from a Charleston perspective.

[calculus1]

The 06Z HWRF has Florence coming ashore near Wilmington at 09Z on Friday morning.  The center of circulation is then virtually stationary for almost 24 hours, just slowly drifting westward.  24 hours after that (09Z on Sunday), the center of circulation is just SW of Charlotte as it continues to meander to the west, all the while dropping copious amounts of rainfall across North and South Carolina.  Wowza!

[cmh90]

4 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

hard to say....on the current NHC track the center goes 50-60 miles SW of MBY so it will close to that for you as well....and thats the center of the center if its a 20-30 mile wide eye we are talking more like 40 miles to the inner eyewall....I have a hard time believing I only get 56 mph wind gust when a Cat 3 is sitting over Jacksonville with us within 50 miles of the core..... it depends on the structure of the storm too, also the gradient between the cane and the ridge will be a player on the NE side.....every storm is different though....Fran's center was 75-80 miles SW of us here and we gusted to 100 in that one, and I was in the SW eyewall of Isabel and never gusted over 55. 

Thanks for the detailed response. I actually moved to Greenville this week so it seems I should be experiencing the same effects from this storm as you are. 

I have a love/hate relationship when it comes to tracking these storms, there is too much uncertainty in regards to how it will affect us. What are your opinions on the Euro vs GFS? I might be talking out my butt but I’m think it will likely lie somewhere in the middle. From the last few years it has seemed that the Euro has been more consistent in regards to forecasting storm tracks. 

[DopplerWx]

fv3 has shifted sw significantly the past 3 runs, comings towards the EPS solutions of a myrtle landfall.  i think we see the eps score a coup here as models continue to converge on myrtle over the next 72hrs. 

[downeastnc]

3 minutes ago, calculus1 said:

The 06Z HWRF has Florence coming ashore near Wilmington at 09Z on Friday morning.  The center of circulation is then virtually stationary for almost 24 hours, just slowly drifting westward.  24 hours after that (09Z on Sunday), the center of circulation is just SW of Charlotte as it continues to meander to the west, all the while dropping copious amounts of rainfall across North and South Carolina.  Wowza!

Its right over Jacksonville.....this is about as bad as it get as it gives the entire coast between Cape Lookout and Cape Fear inner core conditions though ILM would not get any surge really since the flow would be offshore....this is a horrible run for Jacksonville to Bogue Banks...it would also put 10-12 ft of water way up the Neuse and Tar.....

[downeastnc]

2 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

fv3 has shifted sw significantly the past 3 runs, comings towards the EPS solutions of a myrtle landfall.  i think we see the eps score a coup here as models continue to converge on myrtle over the next 72hrs. 

The storm needs to come to the Euro then cause so far the track is north of all the recent Euro runs and the Euro is performing worse than most the others....so far...also the storm appears to be moving more NW than anything right now though its tough to tell with the ugly eye but i imagine the separation to the Euro runs is just getting bigger...the FV3 has been very consistent its landfall point hasnt moved more than 10-20 miles run to run for the last 6-8 runs at least.....GFS doing very well so far with track verification...surprisingly enough....still gotta take the blend of the two and thats about where the NHC has it.....the models are doing a bit of back and forth the last day and that probably will continue but overall ILM to MHX is where this likely ends up....

 

[DopplerWx]

1 minute ago, downeastnc said:

The storm needs to come to the Euro then cause so far the track is north of all the recent Euro runs and the Euro is performing worse than most the others....so far...also the storm appears to be moving more NW than anything right now though its tough to tell with the ugly eye but i imagine the separation to the Euro runs is just getting bigger...the FV3 has been very consistent its landfall point hasnt moved more than 10-20 miles run to run for the last 6-8 runs at least.....GFS doing very well so far with track verification...surprisingly enough....still gotta take the blend of the two and thats about where the NHC has it.....the models are doing a bit of back and forth the last day and that probably will continue but overall ILM to MHX is where this likely ends up....

great post, thanks for the verification maps.  looks like it will all come down to that turn and how far the ridge stretches.  

[Dunkman]

I posted this in the main thread as well but recon just found 165 mph flight level winds in the NE quad. Was definitely hoping the ewrc had dropped the winds more than this.

[downeastnc]

Just now, DopplerWx said:

great post, thanks for the verification maps.  looks like it will all come down to that turn and how far the ridge stretches.  

yeah I cant help but think back to Matthew and how ALL the models had him stalling and looping in this range and then he didnt.....

 

[downeastnc]

35 minutes ago, cmh90 said:

Thanks for the detailed response. I actually moved to Greenville this week so it seems I should be experiencing the same effects from this storm as you are. 

I have a love/hate relationship when it comes to tracking these storms, there is too much uncertainty in regards to how it will affect us. What are your opinions on the Euro vs GFS? I might be talking out my butt but I’m think it will likely lie somewhere in the middle. From the last few years it has seemed that the Euro has been more consistent in regards to forecasting storm tracks. 

The NHC uses the TVCN for their forecast track its a consensus of the models.....below is the consensus track and verification so far....this is why the NHC has its cone and ath where it does....obviously as the models move around this will too but I doubt we see them move the landfall spot more than 50 miles either way at this point.....there landfall point will shift west 10-15 miles at 11am.....

 

[Dunkman]

Just to add, I believe for 2018 the TVCN is equally weighted GFS, ECMWF, UKMET, HWRF and HMON. (I actually can't find where I saw that but I think that's what I remember reading)

[Buckethead]

30 minutes ago, Dunkman said:

I posted this in the main thread as well but recon just found 165 mph flight level winds in the NE quad. Was definitely hoping the ewrc had dropped the winds more than this

177mph winds at 900mb.  Geez. 

[downeastnc]

14 minutes ago, Dunkman said:

Just to add, I believe for 2018 the TVCN is equally weighted GFS, ECMWF, UKMET, HWRF and HMON.

The thing is this stall and hard west turn is one of those things where the models really struggle....Flo is gonna come charging up from the SE and its gonna take a heck of a ridge to stop and turn her....where, when and even if the stall/turn happens is something they will struggle with which sucks...if its 6-10 hrs later than currently forecast it will have huge implications...its never easy here in NC when it comes to these damn storms....why cant the models get a solution and just stick with it. 

[MJO812]

My friend just moved to Robersonville a few years ago. She just bought a generator yesterday.

I told her to evacuate but she is going to stay put.

[griteater]

17 minutes ago, Dunkman said:

Just to add, I believe for 2018 the TVCN is equally weighted GFS, ECMWF, UKMET, HWRF and HMON. (I actually can't find where I saw that but I think that's what I remember reading)

This says the TVCN is a combination of: AVNI (GFS), EMXI (ECMWF, or Euro), HWFI (HWRF), CTCI (NRL COAMPS-TC w/GFS initial boundary conditions), and EGRI (UKMet)

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/modelsummary.shtml

[downeastnc]

5 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

My friend just moved to Robersonville a few years ago. She just bought a generator yesterday.

I told her to evacuate but she is going to stay put.

Meh she will be fine thats not that far from me....as long as she has no trees near the house.....if it does stall and turn west she might not even get winds to hurricane force in gust....if it doesnt stall though it will be rough lol....