Hurricane Florence

[Ander]

Eerie feeling seeing model convergence (grain of salt weather noob) right over your house.  

[yotaman]

Just saw that Carteret County NC is under Mandatory evacuation for all cities and towns in the county. This starts tomorrow morning

Pamlico county is under Mandatory evacuation beginning tomorrow at 3pm.

[downeastnc]

11 minutes ago, yotaman said:

Just saw that Carteret County NC is under Mandatory evacuation for all cities and towns in the county.

Yeah I imagine there wont be many if any hotel rooms left in Greenville by tomorrow....and coming here isn't gonna be much better lol.... the line for gas at every station I passed on my way to work was long......I get off at 11:30 gonna hit up Wal Mart they had generators earlier this evening.....I never ordered one cause it looked like it was gonna be south.....so this is my fault....gonna grab some other stuff too hopefully it wont be nuts at midnight.

 

[MaryB]

1 hour ago, Brick Tamland said:

SC is already closing schools tomorrow. I guess better safe than sorry, but that seems a bit extreme.

They are closing many of the schools in counties in the central part of the state to use the facilities for evacuation centers.  They also need the school buses to help move people on the coast with no access to transportation.  They are doing this because Governor McMaster issued mandatory evacuations for the entire coast of SC.  They have approximately 1 million people in the low country to evacuate.  He is being proactive like Nikki Haley was.  I hope that clears up the reason.

[WeatherNC]

I am likely in the market for a generator tomorrow too.  Point of clarification on the above post and based on local media, Carteret is just maditory on the barrier islands starting in the AM.  Tomorrow is the action day for the coast, Wednesday would be for prone interior.  Indland counties will likely put out voluntaries as Beaufort is already doing

[Ander]

My wife works at UNC Chapel Hill.  They are shutting down Wed at 5 through Sunday.

[Jet Stream Rider]

Thought this was an interesting read. Would be great if the stall could happen soon enough and keep this thing to our east. http://www.stormhamster.com/entry/e091018b.htm

[yotaman]

3 minutes ago, WeatherNC said:

I am likely in the market for a generator tomorrow too.  Point of clarification on the above post and based on local media, Carteret is just maditory on the barrier islands starting in the AM.  Tomorrow is the action day for the coast, Wednesday would be for prone interior.  Indland counties will likely put out voluntaries as Beaufort is already doing

According to WCTI it is for the entire county. For some reason I cannot attach the link.

[yotaman]

12 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Yeah I imagine there wont be many if any hotel rooms left in Greenville by tomorrow....and coming here isn't gonna be much better lol.... the line for gas at every station I passed on my way to work was long......I get off at 11:30 gonna hit up Wal Mart they had generators earlier this evening.....I never ordered one cause it looked like it was gonna be south.....so this is my fault....gonna grab some other stuff too hopefully it wont be nuts at midnight.

 

I bought one off of Amazon and expect it Wednesday.

[gritsnc]

1 minute ago, Jet Stream Rider said:

Thought this was an interesting read. Would be great if the stall could happen soon enough and keep this thing to our east. http://www.stormhamster.com/entry/e091018b.htm

I just finished reading all of that it it was so informative. Brad P went live a bit ago and he said too that nobody really knows how that disturbance coming from the gulf will interact with Florence. I'm anxious to see what things look like tomorrow afternoon. 

[NCSNOW]

Latest hwrf loop takes Florence in Morehead area and goes west, then southwest to Lumberton by Saturday

[sctvman]

All of the Walmarts in the Charleston area are closing at midnight tonight and are not opening till the storm passes. 

[WeatherNC]

The odds of steering currents breaking down is real, it’s just a matter of where at this point, it could be western NC, central VA or offshore (still very much on the table, climo supports).  The Euro gives pause but the trend over the past 24 hours is east, no doubt.

[Cold Rain]

This is just anecdotal, but I have seen a lot more 3-4 day model forecasts for stalls (leading to major flooding and disaster) than I have actually seen stalls happen. Really doesn’t tell us much about this situation...just an observation.

[MaryB]

10 minutes ago, sctvman said:

All of the Walmarts in the Charleston area are closing at midnight tonight and are not opening till the storm passes. 

A friend in Myrtle Beach posted on Facebook that the Walmarts there are closing at 11:30 tonight and not reopening for an unspecified time.

[Jet Stream Rider]

Would be nice were this the solution.

[WeatherNC]

10 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

This is just anecdotal, but I have seen a lot more 3-4 day model forecasts for stalls (leading to major flooding and disaster) than I have actually seen stalls happen. Really doesn’t tell us much about this situation...just an observation.

GEFS would indicate a stall.  I agree, it should not happen, same as us not feeling direct impacts from a storm given the current position.  We are just clearing Bermuda to the south, still need to be real at this early stage.

[ryan1234]

7 minutes ago, Jet Stream Rider said:

Would be nice were this the solution.

Banter?

[No snow for you]

12 minutes ago, MaryB said:

A friend in Myrtle Beach posted on Facebook that the Walmarts there are closing at 11:30 tonight and not reopening for an unspecified time.

If the Waffle House closes I hope you are on your way out of town. 

[yotaman]

24 minutes ago, sctvman said:

All of the Walmarts in the Charleston area are closing at midnight tonight and are not opening till the storm passes. 

 

12 minutes ago, MaryB said:

A friend in Myrtle Beach posted on Facebook that the Walmarts there are closing at 11:30 tonight and not reopening for an unspecified time.

That is ridiculous. That's 2 whole days of sales they will lose not to mention those who still want to go out and supplement what they have. 

[ncskywarn]

1 minute ago, yotaman said:

 

That is ridiculous. That's 2 whole days of sales they will lose not to mention those who still want to go out and supplement what they have. 

Governor ordered mandatory evac effective noon tomorrow.

[Cold Rain]

6 minutes ago, WeatherNC said:

GEFS would indicate a stall.  I agree, it should not happen, same as us not feeling direct impacts from a storm given the current position.  We are just clearing Bermuda to the south, still need to be real at this early stage.

Agreed.  I was just wondering out loud if there is any real tendency for models to over-break down steering in the 3-5 day range.  I don’t know if that’s a real thing or not, but I’ve seen it happen more than it seems like it should.

[ecm3667]

53 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Yeah I imagine there wont be many if any hotel rooms left in Greenville by tomorrow....and coming here isn't gonna be much better lol.... the line for gas at every station I passed on my way to work was long......I get off at 11:30 gonna hit up Wal Mart they had generators earlier this evening.....I never ordered one cause it looked like it was gonna be south.....so this is my fault....gonna grab some other stuff too hopefully it wont be nuts at midnight.

 

Sheetz truck just pulled into the firetower location if you're having trouble finding gas.

[ncskywarn]

Start of a new trend? stay tuned. NAM is coming in SW of 18Z at hour 51

[HKY_WX]

7 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Agreed.  I was just wondering out loud if there is any real tendency for models to over-break down steering in the 3-5 day range.  I don’t know if that’s a real thing or not, but I’ve seen it happen more than it seems like it should.

Harvey is more of the exception than the rule. Most hurricanes once they get in the 35 to 40N latitude area, inevitably get caught up in the mid-latitude troughs/westerlies. It's therefore harder for them to stall. I think we'll see Florence slow down after landfall but meander NW and eventually get caught up in the westerlies and swept out by an incoming wave. Some of the models looping it through NC and back out into the southern Atlantic seem far fetched. It's possible though, I've seen crazier things.

[Cold Rain]

2 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

Harvey is more of the exception than the rule. Most hurricanes once they get in the 35 to 40N latitude area, inevitably get caught up in the mid-latitude troughs/westerlies. It's therefore harder for them to stall. I think we'll see Florence slow down after landfall but meander NW and eventually get caught up in the westerlies and swept out by an incoming wave. Some of the models looping it through NC and back out into the southern Atlantic seem far fetched. It's possible though, I've seen crazier things.

Thanks.  That makes sense.

[yotaman]

10 minutes ago, ncskywarn said:

Governor ordered mandatory evac effective noon tomorrow.

Ok, that explains it.

[downeastnc]

7 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Agreed.  I was just wondering out loud if there is any real tendency for models to over-break down steering in the 3-5 day range.  I don’t know if that’s a real thing or not, but I’ve seen it happen more than it seems like it should.

Plenty of canes have stalled on or just off the coast.....usually though the models wouldn't be this clustered. The 00Z guidance is scary tight and the timing is getting well inside 72 hrs so just how much movement can there be in this range.....ultimately though if this thing stalls and loops offshore and misses altogether will anyone be that shocked......there just isn't much support for that at this time that all might change here in a few hrs with the 00Z's.

[Dunkman]

8 minutes ago, ncskywarn said:

Start of a new trend? stay tuned. NAM is coming in SW of 18Z at hour 51

I don't trust the NAM, or really anything outside of the operational EC, UK and GFS, to have any chance to resolve this complicated steering pattern. Even if the NAM does stumble into an ultimately correct solution it's probably more of a broken clock being right twice a day scenario.

[northwestgastormdawg]

284 
WTNT31 KNHC 110241
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number  47
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 10 2018

...FLORENCE CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES LIKELY TO BE ISSUED ON
TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 62.4W
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1085 MI...1745 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states should monitor
the progress of Florence.  Storm Surge and Hurricane watches are
likely be issued for portions of these areas on Tuesday.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was
located near latitude 25.9 North, longitude 62.4 West.  Florence is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h).  A west-
northwestward to northwestward motion and an increase in forward
speed are expected during the next couple of days.  On the forecast
track, the center of Florence will move over the southwestern
Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Bahamas Tuesday and
Wednesday, and approach the coast of North Carolina or South
Carolina on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Florence is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some strengthening is expected during the
next 36 hours, and Florence is expected to be an extremely dangerous
major hurricane through Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 944 mb (27.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and
portions of the U.S. East Coast.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven