shaggy Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 1 minute ago, Solak said: Pressure 942.8 Wonder what the furthest north cat 5 has ever been recorded? Not saying she gets there but man she is bombing out. If she expands her wind field the surge will be the worst ever recorded for NC. Depending on stall location somewhere on the inner banks could also set some records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 9 minutes ago, shaggy said: Wonder what the furthest north cat 5 has ever been recorded? Not saying she gets there but man she is bombing out. If she expands her wind field the surge will be the worst ever recorded for NC. Depending on stall location somewhere on the inner banks could also set some records. Pretty sure this would be the farthest north if she gets there..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 12z GFS hour 6 has a pressure at 961 when it is already in the 940's. 12z Icon at the beginning of the run is in the 970's. seems that NO model is handling the rapid strengthening of the storm anywhere near accurately. Gonna shock me if it doesn't hit cat 5 by this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 23 minutes ago, shaggy said: Wonder what the furthest north cat 5 has ever been recorded? Not saying she gets there but man she is bombing out. If she expands her wind field the surge will be the worst ever recorded for NC. Depending on stall location somewhere on the inner banks could also set some records. Cat 5 tracks... Cat 4 & 5 tracks... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 She's not going to be able to turn quickly or sharply if she strengthens too much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 Ukie rough run for I 95 and would pretty much be worse cane hit ever for Emerald Isle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 UK a little NE of the last Euro run. Maybe end up somewhere in the middle of those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 7 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: She's not going to be able to turn quickly or sharply if she strengthens too much. That would be... troubling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: UK a little NE of the last Euro run. Maybe end up somewhere in the middle of those. Better chance this misses east than hits SC IMO....only the Euro and HWRF are left of the current NHC track every other model is right......THE FV3/Ukie track is hard to argue and right where the consensus is..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 Last pass of RECON found 143kt winds on the S Eyewall per dropsonde. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 Found this on another forum. Super closeup of the eye. http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=loop_of_the_day/goes-16/20180910000000&number_of_images_to_display=400&loop_speed_ms=25 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenkins Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 4 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: HWRF in a similar position as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 I think somewhere between Cape Fear and Morehead City is a good bet for landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: I think somewhere between Cape Fear and Morehead City is a good bet for landfall. yep has been for the last 2 days.....models have never been more than just east of Hatteras and the SC/NC border for several days now....its kinda remarkable actually how clustered overall the models have been.....remember Lookout to Cape Fear is only 90 miles and Hatteras is another 30 so for all the models to more or less be in a 120 mile stretch of coast for this long is rare thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenkins Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 Levi's site is crawling but it is out to 48 on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, BFF said: Levi's site is crawling but it is out to 48 on the Euro. And a tick south of 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 26 minutes ago, yotaman said: Found this on another forum. Super closeup of the eye. http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=loop_of_the_day/goes-16/20180910000000&number_of_images_to_display=400&loop_speed_ms=25 Another good imaging website. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso-meso1-14-48-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 Euro coming in at Wilmington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 ECMWF looked a tiny bit south earlier on, but definitely ticked north once it got closer to landfall at least -- looks set to landfall near Wilmington Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 Euro out to 87 hits Wilmington....was N Myrtle Beach last run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 So that's not a ton different, but you have to say it is caving to the others a little. A couple more cycles like today, and SC should be completely out of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 10, 2018 Author Share Posted September 10, 2018 Yep lines up well with NHC forecast. Best bet is a Brunswick,NewHanover county landfall to me, with Horry County and Onslow being the goalpost now. Kinda of narrowing those down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, griteater said: Euro out to 87 hits Wilmington....was N Myrtle Beach last run It almost has to go north the models are really locking in on ILM to MHX in this range and I suspect if there is a trend from here it will be east not west..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thekidcurtis Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 And a tick south of 0zTick north rather. Ends up about 75 Miles NE OF 0z at landfall. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 It’s actually cape fear not Wilmington. So not that much further north actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfpack Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 Heavy rain axis on Euro is Wilmington area up toward Raleigh and the Triangle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 Mandatory evacuation order for SC coast will be issued at 2:30 press conference by McMaster. Schools will be closed in most of SC starting tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 Looks like it stalls inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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