Sbcw0603 Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 5 minutes ago, Regulator23 said: My parents, ages 80 and 84, live in New Bern NC. My gut is telling me to get out of there today and come visit up here in Long Island until this storm goes by. At what point is a mandatory evacuation issued? I want them out before that. I wouldn't waste anytime. Once the mandate is put in place it will be chaotic!! Someone else can better answer the timeframe of typical mandates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justicebork Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 6z GFS says that, yes, you should evacuate your parents immediately. This poster agrees, thinking "better safe than sorry." I wish we knew where to take them, though. Maybe DC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 25 minutes ago, Regulator23 said: My parents, ages 80 and 84, live in New Bern NC. My gut is telling me to get out of there today and come visit up here in Long Island until this storm goes by. At what point is a mandatory evacuation issued? I want them out before that. Based on track and speed, Man. Evacs, could start Tues, but def Wed, IMO 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 16 minutes ago, Justicebork said: 6z GFS says that, yes, you should evacuate your parents immediately. This poster agrees, thinking "better safe than sorry." I wish we knew where to take them, though. Maybe DC. I wouldn't go that direction. Think more west beyond the mountains. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbubba Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 Good Morning, I see the models have pretty much held their own overnight with the GFS, CMC and some of the others taking the hurricane near the Pamilco Sound and stalling it and the Euro tracking it across the state from landfall near the NC/SC border towards Charlotte and falling apart over Western NC. Both tracks are disasters for North Carolina and have me very worried, I noticed some 40+ rainfall amounts for the Charlotte area if this verifies. All we can say and do is prepare for the worst and hope for the best! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 With the crazy QPF forecasted upstate.. Maybe I'm overthinking this... Though If I recall... Hugo & Floyd had "Officials" per se kinda worried about "Dam Failures, (Especially on South Carolina side of the NC/SC line).. Yes I'm including the Raleigh Triangle in My thoughts.. There are some pretty Large Lakes & Reservoirs up there, (Earthen Dams capped with Concrete).. With the CRAZY amount(s) of QPF forecasted, What is the consensus here of A VERY REAL possibility of one or more Large Dam Failures happening up there? Like Jordan Lake, Lake Wylee et al? I imagine lotsa "friends" downstream would be curious.. I mean those "amounts" are just Biblical… !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 1 hour ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: My worst fear for WNC just happened with the Euro run. And then the Euro ensembles cluster from Charleston to Myrtle makes it even worse. With the flow enhancement, some mountain and foothill locations would see 4 feet of rain. Wow. This was my greatest fear as well for us in the western Carolinas. It will be interesting to see if other models trend toward the EURO today since the EURO does have support from its ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 Absolute nightmare scenario for western N.C. I love weather but there’s zero part of me that wants to lose power for weeks and be in a Houston type of situation with flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 So, the GFS comes in line with the Euro, and then the Euro goes further south into SC. Madness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sai1b0ats Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 From my local forecast follows. Is it true that the shaded area is only 2/3 confidence interval? That was not my impression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 Just now, Brick Tamland said: So, the GFS comes in line with the Euro, and then the Euro goes further south into SC. Madness. But the 6z HMON is coming in north. Looks like an initial hit just north of Cape Lookout. The 6z HWRF is slightly SW of it previous run at hour 75. Looks like it could be a Wilmington hit. Bottom line, there's going to be a lot of small adjustments all the way to go-time. And even then, the storm won't do exactly what is modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 So do we think this will be a blend of the models and come in around Topsail or Jacksonville. Looking great on sat images and starting to speed up it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 So the 6z HWRF did come in considerably south of the 0z run. It hits just south of the NC/SC boarder and then moves NW. Definitely a trend towards the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justicebork Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 Looks like the HMON wants to stall it over Goldsboro/Greenville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 If you’re in central or WNC you better beg and plead that the Euro is wrong. That’s Biblical flooding. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justicebork Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 HWRF also has a significantly stronger storm at landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 5 minutes ago, shaggy said: So do we think this will be a blend of the models and come in around Topsail or Jacksonville. Looking great on sat images and starting to speed up it looks like. Honestly I don't know. The best bet for us is to follow the NHC track/cone. They do look at the models but also put their years of meteorology to work to make the best guess at where this thing will eventually go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 Is DC/NoVA not a good place to evacute to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 1 minute ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Is DC/NoVA not a good place to evacute to? You know how these hurricanes work; you could go to DC and it ends up affecting that area more than ours. Might be a good time to visit Disney World. I think that area is safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 I know we've heard the name Hugo a few times with this one, but if the Euro is anywhere near correct, this would be far, far worse than Hugo for WNC with the flooding. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 1 minute ago, Wow said: I know we've heard the name Hugo a few times with this one, but if the Euro is anywhere near correct, this would be far, far worse than Hugo for WNC with the flooding. Yeah. I think the winds would actually not be as big of an issue because she's just so slow. People forget that Hugo made it to Charlotte six hours after landfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, FallsLake said: You know how these hurricanes work; you could go to DC and it ends up affecting that area more than ours. Might be a good time to visit Disney World. I think that area is safe. Disney land, not Disney world. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alhooks13 Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 1 minute ago, Queencitywx said: Yeah. I think the winds would actually not be as big of an issue because she's just so slow. People forget that Hugo made it to Charlotte six hours after landfall. I was in Charlotte for Hugo. Went to bed thinking I'd get up the next morning to see what it was doing. By 4am, had high winds and rain. Shortly after daybreak, 30-40 mph winds and clearing skies. I was amazed with the rapidity it moved through the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 Florence is really starting to get that mean look this morning. Good luck to you all, stay safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 6Z HWRF a carbon copy of 0Z Euro. Yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sai1b0ats Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 11 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Is DC/NoVA not a good place to evacute to? From Western NC, I'd go Nashville. From SC, I'd go FL. From Coastal NC, DC would be an ok start, but could have more driving to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 lol....man that latest HWRF run would swamp western NC. The storm comes on shore at the SC/NC boarder and then slowly runs the boarder for two days. It focuses the heaviest precip on the western Piedmont and the mountains. No precip totals from the maps but it looks to be worse than what the euro is showing (..from my untrained eyes). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 I'm in Central Pennsylvania. We're flooding right now from Gordon+Front. The ground in the Mid-Atlantic is so soaked that if we even get a little rain from Florence, it's going to be a disaster. Sending folks north to the Mid-Atlantic is not a good idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 I can't remember the last time we had a storm like this where there really was no good solution in the projected outcomes. Someones gonna get pounded bad regardless. The only hope is that this thing finds a way to stay off shore and scoot slowly out to sea or comes in weak and keeps moving northeast. Most movies you at least have an outcome to root for... Not really here. Unless you like the bad guys winning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 34 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Honestly I don't know. The best bet for us is to follow the NHC track/cone. They do look at the models but also put their years of meteorology to work to make the best guess at where this thing will eventually go. The blend is still the way to go.....the Euro is the southern outlier the GFS is the eastern outlier ( ICON is if we count it ) the Ukie and FV3 and CMC are all in between......so this means ILM to maybe MHX is the sweet spot. The angle is also pretty different with the Euro flat and almost WNW, where as the others weaken the ridge a bit more and are more NW...if the Ukie is similar at 12Z today to its 00Z run last night then I think the Euro will be the one to adjust closer to the others. It would end up looking like a Fran track or even right up 95 if you blended them all together.....with a stall somewhere around the NC/VA border in central NC, south central VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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