Hurricane Florence

[BooneWX]

1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said:

Yeah, only thing that would save NC is if the models are wrong and Flo goes west longer. Of course, that is bad for SC.

Even then, it probably stays relatively close to the border and rakes all of NC with the worst side of the storm. A lot of lose-lose scenarios taking shape and it's a bit alarming. 

[rjtysinger]

I really don’t get the ones who want this carnage at their doorstep.  It won’t be cool or a good time.  Guess you have to experience it to understand!

[RevWarReenactor]

Consensus is pretty crazy. Looks like Morehead City/ Beaufort/Emerald Isle are finished. Its really a shame. Been vacationing there since 1990. It really been built up a lot in the last 10 years. Bogue inlet pier has survived Fran, Bertha in 1996, and all the rest since.  They just installed a brand new pierhouse. Thats all bye bye if this goes as forecasted. All those new million dollar houses on the beach with no protection.......

[Dunkman]

The NC coast can take a hurricane. This isn't the northeast. People know what to do. There will probably be a lot of damage but they'll be ok. I'm expecting the rain to end up being much more dangerous than surge or wind.

[Brick Tamland]

Fran had gusts up to 79 mph here. I am assuming with Flo being a cat 4 that we could have even bigger gusts than with Fran.

[ncforecaster89]

1 hour ago, SENC said:

I recorded during Fran , on Sheep Island at 130 +/- before We had to "hunker down", and our instrument "crapped out"  Cords.. 

You are forgetting Bald Head Island, Southport,, State Ports, and of course, Frying Pan Tower.. take those readings into consideration before posting, A lot more Station(s) are Accurately reporting recently.. With "Weather Stations"..  

Hi. I didn't forget about those areas, as I was referencing the area of highest wind gusts.  Those winds were in the NE quadrant from Wrightsville beach northwards to North Topsail beach.   Of course, your area saw extreme winds, as well.  

[Iceagewhereartthou]

53 minutes ago, Ser Pounce said:

Reading the Tropical Weather forum I thought I was the only one thinking that.

Are you guys thinking the ridge is stronger than modeled? It seems 98% of these go farther North and East in the days leading up to a potential landfall. A few exceptions, but few and far between. Already the forecast track cone has shifted significantly since yesterday morning, from as far south as Jacksonville Fl to about Hilton Head now, with the center over Wilmington. I'm thinking this will probably be another Outer Banks scraper or even near miss OTS (hopefully). 

[rjtysinger]

1 minute ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Are you guys thinking the ridge is stronger than modeled? It seems 98% of these go farther North and East in the days leading up to a potential landfall. A few exceptions, but few and far between. Already the forecast track cone has shifted significantly since yesterday morning, from as far south as Jacksonville Fl to about Hilton Head now, with the center over Wilmington. I'm thinking this will probably be another Outer Banks scraper or even near miss OTS (hopefully). 

I don’t remember seeing the forecast cone at Jacksonville Fl.  If I’m wrong I apologize. I do hope it misses north and ots though!

[ncforecaster89]

29 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Fran had gusts up to 79 mph here. I am assuming with Flo being a cat 4 that we could have even bigger gusts than with Fran.

On the forecast track, it's most certainly possible...maybe even likely.  It really depends on the actual intensity at landfall, the translational speed as it moves further inland, and its precise trek there.  With Fran, it was moving at about 17 mph and deep convection from the NE quadrant moved into the city.  

Edit: Should add that the rate of weakening/filling is another determining factor.   

[calculus1]

Brad Panavich's evening update on Florence:

 

[ncforecaster89]

50 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Yeah, only thing that would save NC is if the models are wrong and Flo goes west longer. Of course, that is bad for SC.

Actually, there's still time for a very close brush...which would be the optimal solution/best case to spare the NC coast the absolute worst effects.  

[frazdaddy]

00z Nam running. Looks faster and a bit north of 18z at 75

[Brick Tamland]

Pretty much the worst possible track for me.

 

[NCSNOW]

Brad P said in his video Florence is about to go over almost 90 degree water. I need to check sst in path, had to be referring to gulf stream. Anyway if that is the case itll be like throwing gas on a bonfire when she goes across , espeacilly with no shear and perfect ventilation from the HP building over top.

[NCSNOW]

5 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Pretty much the worst possible track for me.

 

Yep. You cant draw it any worse for Raleigh. And if it doesn't slam on brakes and start crawling at landfall, and gets on up i40, you'll be getting some major wind damage

[NCSNOW]

Thing that's gonna make wind bad inland is the clockwise wind from HP building in out of Ohio valley combined with counterclockwise wind from florence. Be a tight squeeze out of northeast through central and western nc.         That hp is what will block florence from just rounding the WAR. 

[HKY_WX]

One thing to keep in mind, is there are practically no examples of major atlantic canes bending back to the west into SC/NC (i hear some posters referring to Hugo and some outlier model runs showing that type of track). Hugo may be the only one I can think of, and that was due to a decently strong upper low to it's WSW. This one doesn't have that feature currently.

The main driver of this one is pretty singular (Western Atlantic Ridge). Florence is going pretty much track on the SW side of it, so a curve WNW and then NW seems most likely. Once it is far enough inland it will decouple and weaken into a weak SLP. That is when it will stall b/c the steering currents aren't strong enough to keep it moving after its transition. I think that's the main reason the NHC mentioned the further south options were the result of a weaker cane. The stall is the big question in my mind and you have to give the Euro precedent b/c it's been the most consistent per usual.  So I would say it's going to be in Central NC/Southern VA. 

 

Fran is a better comparison, as the sfc high and WAR line up better.

 

 

 

[frazdaddy]

8 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Yep. You cant draw it any worse for Raleigh. And if it doesn't slam on brakes and start crawling at landfall, and gets on up i40, you'll be getting some major wind damage

Lol, It's  my fault. I had a new roof put on last week., What are the odds?

[jburns]

12 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

One thing to keep in mind, is there are practically no examples of major atlantic canes bending back to the west into SC/NC (i hear some posters referring to Hugo and some outlier model runs showing that type of track). Hugo may be the only one I can think of, and that was due to a decently strong upper low to it's WSW. This one doesn't have that feature currently.

The main driver of this one is pretty singular (Western Atlantic Ridge). Florence is going pretty much track on the SW side of it, so a curve WNW and then NW seems most likely. Once it get's far enough inland it will decouple and weaken into a weak SLP. That is when it will stall b/c the steering currents aren't strong enough to keep it moving after it's transition. I think that's the main reason the NHC mentioned the further south options were the result of a weaker cane. The stall is the big question in my mind and you have to give the Euro precedent b/c it's been the most consistent per usual.  So I would say it's going to be in Central NC/Southern VA. 

 

3

A stall could end up doing the most damage of the entire event.

[HKY_WX]

8 minutes ago, jburns said:

A stall could end up doing the most damage of the entire event.

Yea, 30 inches of rain is pretty scary. I hate quoting JB, b/c I consider him a hypster, but he would be right. This would easily be the most costly storm in NC history if it takes the euro track and the corresponding stall idea. I don't think I live anywhere near a flood plain, so I hope i'm aight. There are some tall pines around, that scares me more. If I lived near any of the rivers or dams in central/eastern NC, I would start preparing now to leave and have an idea of where to go (if things don't change b/n now and Weds Night).

[downeastnc]

31 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

One thing to keep in mind, is there are practically no examples of major atlantic canes bending back to the west into SC/NC (i hear some posters referring to Hugo and some outlier model runs showing that type of track). Hugo may be the only one I can think of, and that was due to a decently strong upper low to it's WSW. This one doesn't have that feature currently.

The main driver of this one is pretty singular (Western Atlantic Ridge). Florence is going pretty much track on the SW side of it, so a curve WNW and then NW seems most likely. Once it is far enough inland it will decouple and weaken into a weak SLP. That is when it will stall b/c the steering currents aren't strong enough to keep it moving after its transition. I think that's the main reason the NHC mentioned the further south options were the result of a weaker cane. The stall is the big question in my mind and you have to give the Euro precedent b/c it's been the most consistent per usual.  So I would say it's going to be in Central NC/Southern VA. 

 

Fran is a better comparison, as the sfc high and WAR line up better.

 

 

 

yeah the almost west motion at landfall some models have it pretty odd..totally possible but if its slowing down like the NHC has usually that means its turning north, I mean it wouldnt slow down to turn more west right? West would mean more ridging and should maintain the speed not slow it down....or maybe I am just overthinking it. 

The ICON which was the last hold out with the OTS solution came back to a landfall and stall this run though its out over the sounds/IBX.....

[downeastnc]

GFS landfall Cape Lookout/Drum inlet then inland....honestly thats the best place for a Cat 4 to come in...least populated section of OBX and IBX there is....

[ncforecaster89]

Another important consideration and hope is that it can come ashore during daylight hours.   

[JoshM]

Euro brings Florence ~ Myrtle Beach for Landfall then thru the midlands of SC into Piedmont of NC.

Thru Hour 123, Charlotte bullseye in QPF, @ 12 inches in the Piedmont, and 19.5 near Taylorsville in the foothills.

[JoshM]

 

[nchighcountrywx]

0z ECMF. MYR to CLT

PDF Link:

Hurricane Florence Monday 10SEP18 AM Package

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

My worst fear for WNC just happened with the Euro run. And then the Euro ensembles cluster from Charleston to Myrtle makes it even worse. With the flow enhancement, some mountain and foothill locations would see 4 feet of rain. Wow. 

[Sbcw0603]

What time frame do you feel the confidence level will be pretty certain of her track? I have elderly parents in the Triad that I need to prepare to move if she's indeed coming this way.   I haven't been able to read much on the forums this week so I've quickly glanced through the comments this morning and it appears the OTS possibility has dominshed to basically none. 

[Ser Pounce]

32 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

My worst fear for WNC just happened with the Euro run. And then the Euro ensembles cluster from Charleston to Myrtle makes it even worse. With the flow enhancement, some mountain and foothill locations would see 4 feet of rain. Wow. 

This is a big part of why I don't think it's as settled as the main board chatter implies. People seem to be looking at the line the model spits out instead of its overall spread or clustering. Same thing happened last year until late in the game.

 

I'm obviously not a met, but statistician is part of my job title and that's the perspective I look at these things from.

[Regulator23]

My parents, ages 80 and 84, live in New Bern NC.  My gut is telling me to get out of there today and come visit up here in Long Island until this storm goes by.

At what point is a mandatory evacuation issued?   I want them out before that.