BIG FROSTY Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 6 minutes ago, Dunkman said: With Floyd in the history books this seems a little premature. Yes it could be! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 9, 2018 Author Share Posted September 9, 2018 8 minutes ago, Dunkman said: With Floyd in the history books this seems a little premature. If the euro verifies, he will highly likely be correct unfortunately. Bad enough when you get landfall from any tropical wx system. But ones that come inland and stall are the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 Still have a hunch this will end up a SC hit. I think the N turn will be delayed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, Wow said: Still have a hunch this will end up a SC hit. I think the N turn will be delayed. Same here, especially since she's still moving west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 8 minutes ago, Wow said: Still have a hunch this will end up a SC hit. I think the N turn will be delayed. yep, like irma's guidance just farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 12 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: yep, like irma's guidance just farther north. The Irma experience is on my mind with that call. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 37 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: Sorry bro, my wife and I love wrightsville beach, and this track wld ruin that beach. Tough to think about. Agreed I'm down there every other week, so many great friends in the path of this, has me very worried. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 10 minutes ago, Disco-lemonade said: Agreed I'm down there every other week, so many great friends in the path of this, has me very worried. We're not out of the woods over here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 1 minute ago, JoshM said: We're not out of the woods over here You're right I've been so concerned about ILM that I haven't really given much consideration to MBY... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lj0109 Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 Well hello... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, lj0109 said: Hello pinhole eye... Hugo redux, it isn't turning yet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 Hoping it does weaken fast once it comes inland. Looks like the NHC has it down to 70mph now instead of 100 mph like before once it comes inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
taylorsweather Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 Can we stop with the Hugo redux commentary. Florence isn't anything like Hugo in intensity history, past and future track, expected landfall, or expected speed following landfall. Literally nothing about Florence is like Hugo except a big high to the north blocking passage. As has been mentioned, Florence is more similar to other tracks and could be used as plausible analogs to her. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 Back in a bit, gonna see if I can stock up just in case ... Wish me luck 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Hoping it does weaken fast once it comes inland. Looks like the NHC has it down to 70mph now instead of 100 mph like before once it comes inland. Actually 140mph 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Hoping it does weaken fast once it comes inland. Looks like the NHC has it down to 70mph now instead of 100 mph like before once it comes inland. yeah that was kinda odd at first glance with the difference in strength....but then look at the timing change and how slow it moves right at landfall.....also keep in mind there is gonna be a strong 1030 mb ridge off NE and a 950-970 mb tropical low in SE NC that should mean the N and E sides quite far from the center are gonna have winds a lot stronger than you would typically in a rotting system...and that will persist for hrs and hrs if the storm stalls..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 9 minutes ago, Taylorsweather said: Can we stop with the Hugo redux commentary. Florence isn't anything like Hugo in intensity history, past and future track, expected landfall, or expected speed following landfall. Literally nothing about Florence is like Hugo except a big high to the north blocking passage. As has been mentioned, Florence is more similar to other tracks and could be used as plausible analogs to her. This has the potential to do more than Hugo, and make a similar landfall. I don't care where the models say it's going to make landfall. There's still a big ass cone of uncertainty, and I wouldn't discount Charleston for a landfall until Wednesday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 9 minutes ago, downeastnc said: yeah that was kinda odd at first glance with the difference in strength....but then look at the timing change and how slow it moves right at landfall.....also keep in mind there is gonna be a strong 1030 mb ridge off NE and a 950-970 mb tropical low in SE NC that should mean the N and E sides quite far from the center are gonna have winds a lot stronger than you would typically in a rotting system...and that will persist for hrs and hrs if the storm stalls..... The winds will also spread out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 4 minutes ago, JoshM said: This has the potential to do more than Hugo, and make a similar landfall. I don't care where the models say it's going to make landfall. There's still a big ass cone of uncertainty, and I wouldn't discount Charleston for a landfall until Wednesday. Hugo Redux, Hugo Redux, Hugo redux! The amount of possible inland wind damage after this comes on shore, could be worse than Hugo! The flooding will be way worse than Hugo, because every model has it slowing down after it comes ashore. Hugo was 135 mph at landfall, Flo projected to be 140mph. I think the Hugo comparison is warranted, and we might be wishing it was “only” a Hugo, when all is said and done! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 1 minute ago, jburns said: The winds will also spread out. Yeah the potential area that could see hurricane force gust from this storm is ridiculous..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 4 hours ago, ncforecaster89 said: This map isn't entirely accurate as the strongest wind gusts were measured at Figure Eight Island at 122 mph. That's what was actually measured. The above map only has 90 mph there. Wilmington ASOS gusted to 86 mph. Winds obviously gusted much higher on the New Hanover county beaches, but less than 90 mph according to that map? Ridiculous! I recorded during Fran , on Sheep Island at 130 +/- before We had to "hunker down", and our instrument "crapped out" Cords.. You are forgetting Bald Head Island, Southport,, State Ports, and of course, Frying Pan Tower.. take those readings into consideration before posting, A lot more Station(s) are Accurately reporting recently.. With "Weather Stations".. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 Sorry google is messing with Me,, this is the Spot, in red.. during Fran.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 42 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Hugo Redux, Hugo Redux, Hugo redux! The amount of possible inland wind damage after this comes on shore, could be worse than Hugo! The flooding will be way worse than Hugo, because every model has it slowing down after it comes ashore. Hugo was 135 mph at landfall, Flo projected to be 140mph. I think the Hugo comparison is warranted, and we might be wishing it was “only” a Hugo, when all is said and done! My call,, give Me crow with Well's BBQ Sauce.. Fran+Hugo+Floyd in a nice neat bow.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 1 hour ago, Wow said: Still have a hunch this will end up a SC hit. I think the N turn will be delayed. Reading the Tropical Weather forum I thought I was the only one thinking that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 Cantore is in Wilmington/Carolina beach already!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 6 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Cantore is in Wilmington/Carolina beach already!!! Oh, no. That means it’ll make landfall in Savannah. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 17m17 minutes ago The 18z late dynamical models show SE NC as the highest threat with a track deep inland. #Florence 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 1 minute ago, Solak said: Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 17m17 minutes ago The 18z late dynamical models show SE NC as the highest threat with a track deep inland. #Florence And looks like it could be the worst case scenario for the Triangle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjtysinger Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 8 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: And looks like it could be the worst case scenario for the Triangle. The State! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 Yeah, only thing that would save NC is if the models are wrong and Flo goes west longer. Of course, that is bad for SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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