Solak Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 Full run of the Euro... That would make for a very long week of weather with the storm doubling back on it's track. Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 2m2 minutes ago The 12z ECMWF track. #Florence 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hickory Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 So am guessing if the euro track holds it's time to buy a generator and a chainsaw if you live in the Piedmont of NC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, hickory said: So am guessing if the euro track holds it's time to buy a generator and a chainsaw if you live in the Piedmont of NC? And an ark. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duncana12 Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 Just now, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: And an ark. Wonder how we will hold up here in Burke And McDowell county's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 1 minute ago, Duncana12 said: Wonder how we will hold up here in Burke And McDowell county's. All track depending. It’s going to stall, just a matter of where. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 Hurricane Florence Afternoon ECMWF Package Sunday 09SEP18 Key Points Forward speed increased due to stronger ridge bringing Florence onshore just south of Wilmington NC around 1pm Thursday instead of 1AM Friday. ECMWF take Florence further inland to Surry County and then rains out over NW NC and SW VA for 3 days. Updated ECMWF Ensembles are forthcoming PDF File at this link: Hurricane Florence Afternoon ECMWF Package Sunday 09SEP18 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 I’ve been hoping for long shot OTS solution, but that looks increasingly unlikely. This could be a once-in-lifetime event for millions of people in most of NC and much of VA. Prepare now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 Folks, & @downeastnc, honestly I've been through ALOT of canes.. This one Scares the be-Jesus outta me.. If it comes to a ILM (or close ) landfall.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 Hello everyone and thanks for all the great posts! I wish we were tracking a nice snow event rather than this hurricane. For those that have not experienced this, take it seriously. I was in the decaying eye wall of Fran in central NC and it was the most chaotic weather conditions I have ever experienced. Got a tree on my roof. Its not a place you want to be unless you are well prepared with good shelter, food and alternative power generation. Where ever that eye wall goes as it disintegrates will be trouble. Good luck to everyone. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 NWS RaleighVerified account @NWSRaleigh 12m12 minutes ago The risk of prolonged extremely heavy rainfall with #Florence is increasing. Remember that flooding is a major cause of inland deaths with tropical cyclones. Get prepared now for the potential for torrential rains! #ncwx 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 1 minute ago, Jet Stream Rider said: Hello everyone and thanks for all the great posts! I wish we were tracking a nice snow event rather than this hurricane. For those that have not experienced this, take it seriously. I was in the decaying eye wall of Fran in central NC and it was the most chaotic weather conditions I have ever experienced. Got a tree on my roof. Its not a place you want to be unless you are well prepared with good shelter, food and alternative power generation. Wherever that eye wall goes as it disintegrates will be trouble. Good luck to everyone. I resided on the beach @ landfall, took a trip to "sheep Island" during landfall, this one scares me.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 8 minutes ago, Jet Stream Rider said: Hello everyone and thanks for all the great posts! I wish we were tracking a nice snow event rather than this hurricane. For those that have not experienced this, take it seriously. I was in the decaying eye wall of Fran in central NC and it was the most chaotic weather conditions I have ever experienced. Got a tree on my roof. Its not a place you want to be unless you are well prepared with good shelter, food and alternative power generation. Wherever that eye wall goes as it disintegrates will be trouble. Good luck to everyone. The thing with these tracks like this is the gradient between the strong ridge and the cane really beef up the NE side well away from the center.....the peak wind gust in Fran were 50-100 miles northeast of track...i went thru the same mess with Fran we gusted 100+ and we really were not expecting more than 50-60 due to the track being farther away. Then when you consider Fran was "only" 115 mph cane when she hit and this thing has the potential to be 125-140ish......ugh......then it stalls and rots...ugh again...its almost like it has to end up OTS because this is like the worst case scenario we always talk about happening one day....... and now it looks like that day is this Thursday and that cant really be happening cause this is what we always talk about but never believe will actually happen.... 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 Just to further echo Jet Stream Rider's post. I was in Cary, NC for Fran (c1996) and without power for 5 days plus had three trees on my house. This path, if to be believed, will rock not only the coastal plan but a great deal of the piedmont as well. I would take the initial steps for preparedness starting no later than Monday. It's projected landfall timetable has now raced ahead 12hrs. With Fran I was already without power when the eye came ashore 120 miles away. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 4 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Just to further echo Jet Stream Rider's post. I was in Cary, NC for Fran (c1996) and without power for 5 days plus had three trees on my house. This path, if to be believed, will rock not only the coastal plan but a great deal of the piedmont as well. I would take the initial steps for preparedness starting no later than Monday. It's projected landfall timetable has now raced ahead 12hrs. With Fran I was already without power when the eye came ashore 120 miles away. Yep this is the most often overlooked thing the center is just that the center, TS force winds will be 150-200 miles or more even from the center......by Wed night the beaches will already be pushing TS conditions.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 5 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Yep this is the most often overlooked thing the center is just that the center, TS force winds will be 150-200 miles or more even from the center......by Wed night the beaches will already be pushing TS conditions.... Yes... going to be a little brisk for most of us in NC, if the Euro pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ander Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 Target in Durham running low on water after stocking up this morning. No one seems worried or stocking up there for the most part. I would say 10% or less of the people there were buying stuff like there was a big storm coming... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 Euro has been extremely consistent for several runs. Gotta feel decent about a landfall point b/n myrtle beach and moorehead city. Looks like the worse hit for the Carolinas since hazel/hugo/fran. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 26 minutes ago, Solak said: NWS RaleighVerified account @NWSRaleigh 12m12 minutes ago The risk of prolonged extremely heavy rainfall with #Florence is increasing. Remember that flooding is a major cause of inland deaths with tropical cyclones. Get prepared now for the potential for torrential rains! #ncwx That is more than likely way underdone ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjtysinger Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 Just finished watching this. Man the memories. This storm could have a similar track but I hope not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 Finally broke down and bought a Inverter Generator for $385 from Amazon with delivery Wednesday. The wind from this has me worried especially since models seem to be moving this slowly northward along the coast. But we will see. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JovialWeather Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 1 minute ago, yotaman said: Finally broke down and bought a Inverter Generator for $385 from Amazon with delivery Wednesday. The wind from this has me worried especially since models seem to be moving this slowly northward along the coast. But we will see. Did the same this morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ander Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 Not the sharpest at interpreting all of this, but can follow the general trends and realize there is considerable uncertainty. If you had to spitball based on what we know now, what do you see for the Triangle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, ander420 said: Not the sharpest at interpreting all of this, but can follow the general trends and realize there is considerable uncertainty. If you had to spitball based on what we know now, what do you see for the Triangle? 50-100mph wind gusts and 10-30” of rain, as it looks now! Subject to change 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 42 minutes ago, downeastnc said: The thing with these tracks like this is the gradient between the strong ridge and the cane really beef up the NE side well away from the center.....the peak wind gust in Fran were 50-100 miles northeast of track...i went thru the same mess with Fran we gusted 100+ and we really were not expecting more than 50-60 due to the track being farther away. Then when you consider Fran was "only" 115 mph cane when she hit and this thing has the potential to be 125-140ish......ugh......then it stalls and rots...ugh again...its almost like it has to end up OTS because this is like the worst case scenario we always talk about happening one day....... and now it looks like that day is this Thursday and that cant really be happening cause this is what we always talk about but never believe will actually happen.... This map isn't entirely accurate as the strongest wind gusts were measured at Figure Eight Island at 122 mph. That's what was actually measured. The above map only has 90 mph there. Wilmington ASOS gusted to 86 mph. Winds obviously gusted much higher on the New Hanover county beaches, but less than 90 mph according to that map? Ridiculous! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 1 minute ago, ncforecaster89 said: This map isn't entirely accurate as the strongest wind gusts were measured at Figure Eight Island at 122 mph. That's what was actually measured. The above map only has 90 mph there. Wilmington ASOS gusted to 86 mph. Winds obviously gusted much higher on the New Hanover county beaches, but less than 90 mph according to that map? Ridiculous! yeah I meant inland more so than the coast as places all over the Cape Fear region gusted over 110-120 in Fran.....there was a few 130+ on some weather stations down there and even a 140 something as well I think right? I know they are not counted in the official gust..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 5:00 PM AST Sun Sep 9 Location: 24.4°N 57.0°W Moving: W at 7 mph Min pressure: 975 mb Max sustained: 85 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 Possibly getting to 150mph??? FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 24.4N 57.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 24.6N 58.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 25.1N 60.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 25.9N 63.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 27.0N 66.2W 125 KT 145 MPH 72H 12/1800Z 30.3N 72.6W 130 KT 150 MPH 96H 13/1800Z 33.5N 77.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 120H 14/1800Z 35.0N 79.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 8 minutes ago, Solak said: 5:00 PM AST Sun Sep 9 Location: 24.4°N 57.0°W Moving: W at 7 mph Min pressure: 975 mb Max sustained: 85 mph Longer she goes west, the more interior NC should be worried. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 13 minutes ago, Solak said: Possibly getting to 150mph??? FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 24.4N 57.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 24.6N 58.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 25.1N 60.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 25.9N 63.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 27.0N 66.2W 125 KT 145 MPH 72H 12/1800Z 30.3N 72.6W 130 KT 150 MPH 96H 13/1800Z 33.5N 77.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 120H 14/1800Z 35.0N 79.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND That 140 is practically onshore thats rough right there.....we are talking Hugo/Andrew/Charley type territory there.....seriously rare company. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 Whoa!!! Joe BastardiVerified account @BigJoeBastardi 11m11 minutes ago More Euro has 33 inches of rain forecasted with Florence, Expect those totals to be higher in those mountains, 3-4 feet of rain some places in coming 10 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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