downeastnc Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 1 minute ago, ander420 said: Funny I hit home depot this morning to get more charcoal, a new grill grate, couple more extension cords and a gas can. They still had about 8 generators and no real sense of urgency there. It was early (8 am) but I figured there would be more concern. I swung by Target afterwards to get some more water and a few essentials just to beat the rush and...there wasnt one. Maybe it will change tomorrow but as of this morning all quiet. where are you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ander Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 1 minute ago, downeastnc said: where are you? Sorry scenic Durham NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gibby Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 10 minutes ago, shaggy said: I'd get the earlier flight. Models are pretty bullish and they aren't changing. Doesnt mean they cant or wont but you better be safe and get in early. You're probably right. I was just hoping she'd slow down enough for me to squeeze in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 Ukie is a hit a little north of Wilmington around Jacksonville at day 5,in between the Euro and GFS runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 18 minutes ago, ander420 said: Funny I hit home depot this morning to get more charcoal, a new grill grate, couple more extension cords and a gas can. They still had about 8 generators and no real sense of urgency there. It was early (8 am) but I figured there would be more concern. I swung by Target afterwards to get some more water and a few essentials just to beat the rush and...there wasnt one. Maybe it will change tomorrow but as of this morning all quiet. I went to Lowes to see what generators they had and all they had was 1 type at $750 so I left. I don't need nor want a 200lb generator. The store was packed and I have heard that our local Walmarts were selling water like there was no tomorrow. People are actually scared of this one and several people on my street are already planning on leaving. I am staying put, hard to find a hotel that will allow 3 dogs with 2 of them being large. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 Joe BastardiVerified account @BigJoeBastardi 7h7 hours ago More Since Wednesday we have had this going inland over NC and then crawling into VA. Should this turn out correct, this is likely to be the worst natural disaster on record for Carolinas into VA Major hit combined with 3-4 feet of rain in some places over 3-4 day period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 25 minutes ago, Gibby said: You're probably right. I was just hoping she'd slow down enough for me to squeeze in. I think there's a good chance that the weather will be ok at 5pm Thursday in Raleigh. The problem is that there are a lot of other factors in play. You don't want to get a flight crew stuck there, or a plane. And cancelled flights in other locations may also have an impact. I'd definitely take the earlier flight if you can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbubba Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 Hello, I'm a long time lurker and infrequent poster here and I've been following the discussion here on Florence. I will be very interested to see if the newest Euro model run follows what seems to be the trend on some of the other models, in particular, the GFS which has stalled Florence near the Outer Banks for its last two runs. The last Euro run showed a Fran type track which would spell disaster for the Raleigh area where I live. I am still hoping is that Florence will turn more north and further out to sea but unless it strengthens more rapidily than forecast or the high pressure ridge is weaker, it looks like North Carolina is in for a hard time later this week. I know today's forecast models aren't gospel, especially four to five days out, but it looks like NC will not be able to dodge Hurricane Florence and its effects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 Its not really 5 days out since hurricanes are not single dots on a map, by dawn Thurs conditions at the coast would be nearing TS force and going down hill dramatically and by Thurs evening the entire eastern half of NC would be experiencing TS conditions with cane conditions moving ashore.....that means folks along the coast have less than 4 days at this point assuming the timing is correct.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 18 minutes ago, weatherbubba said: Hello, I'm a long time lurker and infrequent poster here and I've been following the discussion here on Florence. I will be very interested to see if the newest Euro model run follows what seems to be the trend on some of the other models, in particular, the GFS which has stalled Florence near the Outer Banks for its last two runs. The last Euro run showed a Fran type track which would spell disaster for the Raleigh area where I live. I am still hoping is that Florence will turn more north and further out to sea but unless it strengthens more rapidily than forecast or the high pressure ridge is weaker, it looks like North Carolina is in for a hard time later this week. I know today's forecast models aren't gospel, especially four to five days out, but it looks like NC will not be able to dodge Hurricane Florence and its effects. Welcome. I don't buy the GFS. Not because it stalls it out but because it stalls it out and actually strengthens it to a cat 5 while sitting there. No way can those waters maintain that strong of a storm with all the upwelling and land interaction that would happen with a big and strong storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 Ukie 12Z today headed WNW comes in goes between Fayetteville and Goldsboro, wouldnt matter though that kind of hit would give 100 mph gust or better for almost all of eastern NC inland to RDU and the coast well ....especially with the strong ridge to the NE..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 I would never trust a model in which the ridge is stronger each run and the LP further north and east. The GFS has been horrendous with this storm especially in regards to strength of this storm which is everything. I would not be shocked at all to see a Charleston to Georgetown landfall moving NW from there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 7 minutes ago, yotaman said: Welcome. I don't buy the GFS. Not because it stalls it out but because it stalls it out and actually strengthens it to a cat 5 while sitting there. No way can those waters maintain that strong of a storm with all the upwelling and land interaction that would happen with a big and strong storm. 12z GFS gives this location (KJNX) 0.07" from Wednesday through the duration of the storm. Really hard to buy into that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbubba Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 29 minutes ago, yotaman said: Welcome. I don't buy the GFS. Not because it stalls it out but because it stalls it out and actually strengthens it to a cat 5 while sitting there. No way can those waters maintain that strong of a storm with all the upwelling and land interaction that would happen with a big and strong storm. Thank you for the welcome! You bring up a great point about the intensity forecast being way off on the GFS. Hanging around off the shallower waters of the Outer Banks would weaken rather than strengthen Florence. The UKMet did paint a bleak picture when it comes to track in its latest run. The Euro is about to do its thing so we'll see if it picks up on the trend that the GFS and CMC have been showing lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 24s24 seconds ago More Overall the track once inland is a little west of the 00z track with the center moving into west-central NC. #Florence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 Wilmington to Winston-Salem... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 1 minute ago, Wow said: Wilmington to Winston-Salem... Curious on your thoughts but this cannot be good for the mountains and foothills with the enhanced flow into this area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbubba Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 The Euro shifts west once it gets inland. That was interesting and would devastate the Charlotte area if that is the case. The stall that some of the other models are showing would bring epic flooding to Eastern NC. It's early but things do not look good for the old North State! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 Ryan Maue | weathermodels.comVerified account @RyanMaue 4m4 minutes ago More Model guidance locked on SE North Carolina as a landfall location for Hurricane #Florence ... b/c of storm's size including a 200-mile margin puts a lot of coastline under threat of major hurricane conditions mainly on Thursday. ECMWF 12z update: (https://weathermodels.com ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Curious on your thoughts but this cannot be good for the mountains and foothills with the enhanced flow into this area. It would bring a lot of widespread flooding if it's going to stall out over the middle of the state. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 Holy smokes!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 this is what concerned me, models shifting south as we close in. luckily the gfs still shows an offshore stall but the euro ensembles all being at the nc/sc border and some further south is worrisome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 12 minutes ago, Wow said: Wilmington to Winston-Salem... The image of the Euro at 120 has what would be whatever is left of the eye directly over my house. I know it will change but it still got my attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbubba Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 5 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: this is what concerned me, models shifting south as we close in. luckily the gfs still shows an offshore stall but the euro ensembles all being at the nc/sc border and some further south is worrisome. I believe the CMC is in the GFS camp but I don't know if that is a vote of confidence. Things will change between now and landfall but the window will be closing faster as we go along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: this is what concerned me, models shifting south as we close in. luckily the gfs still shows an offshore stall but the euro ensembles all being at the nc/sc border and some further south is worrisome. The Euro ens are conditional to the strength of the storm though.....all the ens that take her to central SC have her as a Cat 1/2 for the next 2-3 days. The Euro ens that take her to Cat 3/4 over the next day end up Myrtle to Morehead....the Ukie shifted north considerably over the last day....CMC came back north for what its worth and the FV3 version of the GFS has hit basically the same spot in NC 5 runs in a row.....the only misses are the GFS and Icon and they are both east offshore barely.... At this point there is tons of agreement that the center will cross between the SC/NC border and MHX moving WNW or NW into interior NC....the ridge to the NE will also make the NE side brutal...reminds me a lot of Fran the center was 75-80 miles SW of us and we still gusted 100+ and she was a 115 mph cane...this one is liable to be 125-140.....seriously and without trying to sound all alarmist as it stands this is about as worse case a scenario NC has seen ever. A large steady state Cat 3/4 with 20-30 mile wide eye slamming into the south beaches headed NW towards Triangle and Triad....doesnt get much worse that that for NC. Still though there could be enough variance in the strength and location of the ridge to move the landfall point around but probably not more than 50 or so miles either way.....the models just probably dont have a large scale feature that wrong in the 2-3 day range.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YetAnotherRDUGuy Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 28 minutes ago, Wow said: Wilmington to Winston-Salem... If I had to pick a track that would bring the highest impact to the most people in NC, it would be that one. An initial shot of hurricane sustained winds right into Triad, and splitting the uprights of Charlotte and RDU. Not to mention the potential for a stalled cyclone meandering for days. I will not speculate on the potential impact of that scenario, but will focus on the fact we are still a few days out, and hoping something changes in regards to track/intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 FV3 has actuaslly been crazy consistent the last 5 runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 6 minutes ago, downeastnc said: FV3 has actuaslly been crazy consistent the last 5 runs Did you pull the trigger on your generator yet? I am still debating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 OT, local report.. Chit Show has begun here in Wilm.. Botted Water GONE reports of gas Stations already running out.. I "managed" to get Gas, (about 40 hours "run-time") 20 gallons just as the station ran out.. Station "jacked" the price almost 25 cents while I was there "in-line".. I spent close to 80.00 in gas for My generator.. Then theres this report from the Carolina Beach Boat Ramp.. Meanwhile I'm watching a "parade" of boats leaving ILM.. """"Ok locals, I am hoping that most of us have common sense on here. My husband and I were taking our boat out of the water today, due to the impending storm, and I watch people arguing and fist-fighting at the boat ramp. Parking lot full of boaters, boaters 10 deep waiting in line to either put in or take out and tempers were high and fuming. A new boater backed down and then proceeded to wait on the boat to arrive. The new boater initiated the argument that continued for 30 good mins with several boaters. He was expecting everyone to move so his boat could come in. In the meantime, I counted 6 other boats docked and waiting for trailers to arrive so they could depart. Then my husband had pulled up and was about to back in when someone cut him off and zipped in. His boat was still coming in. I swear I just shook my head and said dear lord please get us out of the boat ramp safely without dying, because I know the storm you are sending will wash these fools away. Lesson, be kind and courteous and help out your fellow boater. Sheesh. CB police or whom ever the Public boat dock officials are need to monitor it over the next few days. People are nuts."" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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