BullCityWx Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 19 minutes ago, jburns said: We better hope that the two possible systems trailing Florence don't develop and follow a similar path. One of my earliest weather memories was in 1955 when hurricane Connie went through and was quickly followed by hurricane Dianne. The flooding was horrendous Funny this is the 100 year anniversary of the 1918 flood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 42s42 seconds ago More So here are the 12z EPS (ECMWF Ensemble) tracks. Concerning to say the least. #Florence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 29 minutes ago, jburns said: We better hope that the two possible systems trailing Florence don't develop and follow a similar path. One of my earliest weather memories was in 1955 when hurricane Connie went through and was quickly followed by hurricane Dianne. The flooding was horrendous Obviously this is 2 weeks away so it really means nothing, but the GFS has the remnants of 92L going right over the same area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjtysinger Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 Not looking good at the moment but still a long way out. Different track but when Fran hit we had gotten a ton of rain prior and it was horrible with down trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 Euro has the 594dm death ridge closer to the VA/NC coast this run,Ukie has it even stronger and further south.Ukie looks like it would be a further south hit if it went out another day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 1 hour ago, NC_hailstorm said: Euro has the 594dm death ridge closer to the VA/NC coast this run,Ukie has it even stronger and further south.Ukie looks like it would be a further south hit if it went out another day. We’ll know in 24 hours! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 Not surprisingly so it begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 7 minutes ago, ncskywarn said: Not surprisingly so it begins. Blacksburg and the UA site in Greensboro will also be conducting 6hr launches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 Actually looks like 18Z landfall was a little North of 12Z. Biggest difference that I see is at landfall it's moving more NNW as opposed to NW. Compaired to 12Z. Never makes it as far inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 44 minutes ago, ncskywarn said: Actually looks like 18Z landfall was a little North of 12Z. Biggest difference that I see is at landfall it's moving more NNW as opposed to NW compaired to 12Z. Never makes it as far inland. Yeah 12Z gave me the eye, this run I never quite get in the eye its maybe 30 miles further east moving more north, kinda goes Lookout,Aurora,Williamston,Ahoskie/Roanoke Rapids....havent been in the eye since Isabel but it was a ragged storm, Bertha was the only real true eye I have been in, and it was not like it was all blue sky though we did see blue sky.....many runs left to go but looking pretty likely that some part of NC is gonna be dealing with this storm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrimReap3r Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 6 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Yeah 12Z gave me the eye, this run I never quite get in the eye its maybe 30 miles further east moving more north, kinda goes Lookout,Aurora,Williamston,Ahoskie/Roanoke Rapids....havent been in the eye since Isabel but it was a ragged storm, Bertha was the only real true eye I have been in, and it was not like it was all blue sky though we did see blue sky.....many runs left to go but looking pretty likely that some part of NC is gonna be dealing with this storm.... I was 10 years old (LF on my birthday) when Bertha came through. I was at my grandparents house near Grifton, NC and I remember when the eye came through it was surreal even for a 10 year old. Definitely the day I became a self proclaimed weather nerd. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 From the NWS Raleigh AFD kind of ominous. While the risk of impacts associated with Florence along the East Coast has increased, there is too much model spread/uncertainty to speculate what kind of impacts we can expect here in central NC. Given current model projections, impacts, if any, will be possible during the mid to late week period. Residents of central NC are strongly encouraged to closely monitor the latest forecasts and to ensure everyone has emergency kits and hurricane plan in place. It is never too early to prepare! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 Good Lord. Governor Cooper has just issued a state of emergency. It is getting to the point where no one even pays attention because they issue a state of emergency every time a mosquito farts. A full week early is a bit much. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 It’s for the farmers it says. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 Mosquito farts are no laughing matter. I lost five loved ones in the Mosquito flatulence outbreak of 2002. It was terrible: one minute we were enjoying a nice picnic along a South Florida swamp and the next minute, their necks had bitemarks the size of bowling balls and they were gone. I pray that none of you know that evil. Okay, that's enough. Hi, everyone. I'm observing from Central Pennsylvania, the new rainforest of America. Unfortunately, we have an interest in this event, as well. I'm sure you may see a few more of us here in the coming week. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 6 minutes ago, jburns said: Good Lord. Governor Cooper has just issued a state of emergency. It is getting to the point where no one even pays attention because they issue a state of emergency every time a mosquito farts. A full week early is a bit much. Maybe a little bit early but probably prudent. At least it's giving him 5 or 6 days to get resources set up and in place. As opposed to waiting and having to rush and only having 2 or 3 days to get the same resources set up. Especially if this ends up being worse case scenario and ends up effecting the entire state. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, Regan said: It’s for the farmers it says. That was a separate executive order from the state of emergency. https://governor.nc.gov/news/gov-cooper-issues-emergency-orders-advance-storm-help-farmers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 Just now, jburns said: That was a separate executive order from the state of emergency. https://governor.nc.gov/news/gov-cooper-issues-emergency-orders-advance-storm-help-farmers So Burns you gonna be in MHX for this one Icon and GFS have gust to 120ish there.....if they are right I wont have to chase...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, downeastnc said: So Burns you gonna be in MHX for this one Icon and GFS have gust to 120ish there.....if they are right I wont have to chase...... Not sure yet. I'll keep watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 WOW HWRF 195 Kt=225 MPH at the 850 level at hour 120. Looks definitely plausible when you look at the bottom 2 images. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 This would be a monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 28 minutes ago, downeastnc said: So Burns you gonna be in MHX for this one Icon and GFS have gust to 120ish there.....if they are right I wont have to chase...... The Icon and GFS have it 6 days out! Lock it down I'm headed for MHX!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 17 minutes ago, ncskywarn said: WOW HWRF 195 Kt=225 MPH at the 850 level at hour 120. Looks definitely plausible when you look at the bottom 2 images. Yeah the SSTs support at least a category higher than normal, probably more than that in spots. Strong category 3 is usually the worst case scenario for NC but I'm not sure that's the case this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 I would not mind taking the hit for everyone on this board (have never been in a hurricane) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 5 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: I would not mind taking the hit for everyone on this board (have never been in a hurricane) Think of the worst thunderstorm you have ever been in. Double the wind speed get ready for hours of it instead of minutes. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 11 minutes ago, jburns said: Think of the worst thunderstorm you have ever been in. Double the wind speed get ready for hours of it instead of minutes. I was told this too and after Hugo, the only thing I could compare it to was the Xenia tornado Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 Did somebody say mosquito farts!?I’m all in! As for the guy who wants to experience a hurricane, it’s pretty much like JB said, except triple the wind speeds and 7-10 days without power! That’s what it was like going through Hugo in Gastonia! I’ll nevr forget our obnoxious principal coming over the PA system the day before Hugo and announcing that they had never missed a day EVER due to a hurricane! Well about 10 days later, we finally got to hear her sweet voice again!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 20 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: I would not mind taking the hit for everyone on this board (have never been in a hurricane) This is dumb, look I am a wind junkie I love it.....but there is a huge difference between Cat 1-2 winds and Cat 3-5 winds ( which this will likely be) ....this video I took from Irene shows how it is with 30mph sustained and gust to 60, and it was like that video nonstop for 12-15 HOURS.....you dont want more than this trust me. In Fran it was the middle of night no power winds hitting 100-110 in gust and the sounds outside of everything tearing up while you wonder if the roof stays on is not something you want to experience....or at least I hope not. Then there is the after effects, no power for a week or weeks, not able to work, it sucks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 Downeast, that video is brutal. For anyone wanting to experience a hurricane you should first have to watch that video with headphones on for 60 straight minutes. Thanks for sharing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 12 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: Downeast, that video is brutal. For anyone wanting to experience a hurricane you should first have to watch that video with headphones on for 60 straight minutes. Thanks for sharing! No problem , like I said peak gust in Greenville was probably 70-80 mph and nothing in this video was that bad, peak wind hit right at dawn and the videos didnt come out really....most of this is like I said 25-30 mph sustained gusting to 50-60 at best....PGV reported wind gust to 50 or better for 15 straight hrs..... This is the next day....you can see my parents house on the right when we take the turn thats the carport we were under.....its also the carport Fran almost took out.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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