NCSNOW Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 If ever we need a wx thread to bust,let's hope this is the one. We've all been taking a deep breath with the steering pattern that's setup shop over the SE coast during peak Hurricane Season. As it stands now Florence is being forecasted to do the unthinkable after getting so far north out in the Atlantic and make an unprecedented b-line right into the SE coast. Every model is showing a Carolina Coastal hit as of right now. The things to keep and eye on are the intensity, landfall point obviously and forward speed as well as motion after landfall. Does it drag stall like Floyd or is it on afterburners like Hugo and Hazel. This has potential to affect alot of inland communities more so than just the normal coastal plain swipe, we often see with northerly moving storms that landfall on our coast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 pretty concerning as i wouldn't be shocked to see the ridge even stronger than modeled. recurvature sure seems less and less likely at this point. also, with the expected forward speed over the warm gulf stream as it approaches the coast, would not be surprised to see minimal weakening prior to any possible landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 Cape Fear Lock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 Then there's this potential fly in the ointment. Brad PanovichVerified account @wxbrad 4m4 minutes ago I shouldn't have talked about that thing earlier. ughhh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 7, 2018 Author Share Posted September 7, 2018 NHC has Florence forecasted to become a Major again over the weekend ( see gif attached). All models now pinpoint Savannah/Charleston up to the obx for landfall. 12z Euro should be out soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 12Z Euro is running out to 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 94l sure is a surprise so maybe she will weaken that ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 7, 2018 Author Share Posted September 7, 2018 Euro looks further south than 0z so far. See what happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 1 minute ago, NCSNOW said: Euro looks further south than 0z so far. See what happens I'm actually getting the feeling this one might just plow west right into SC and never make that turn. There is so e troughiness that could weaken the ridge but will it be enough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 7, 2018 Author Share Posted September 7, 2018 Euro at 72hr: Cant get pics to post. See thumbnail & Yea Shaggy I agree. Of course back here , way inland a SC coastal hit is how we expierence the most from landfalling Canes or the leftovers. I caution everyone to take notice of the forward speed at landfall. Its been pretty fast in my opinion on the models today. That compounds the problems not only at the coast, but inland as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 looks like a sc landfall incoming on the euro. right over the gulf stream too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: looks like a sc landfall incoming on the euro. right over the gulf stream too. Yeah hugo redux. If the euro holds it path and gfs its and they blend the 2 then sc/NC are in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hickory Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 EURO landfall around myrtle beach moves torward southern NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 7, 2018 Author Share Posted September 7, 2018 Comes right over Rockingham into Richmond county hr168. And it's not crawling eitheir, much like hugo did as well. On the move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkSC Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 Looks like the model cone today is from Savannah (CMC) to just north of Wilmington (GFS), with Euro in the middle. Of course, still 7 days out. South trends continue. We might see a lot of ensembles in GA and FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 Good bye power for a lot of people, I'll be down in garden City beach starting tomorrow. Appreciate all the updates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 2m2 minutes ago More One major concern I have with #Florence is that where ever it ends up making landfall there is potential for the storm to slow down significantly. Steering currents will be weak. Heavy rain may be a big concern where it makes landfall, assuming it does. Just one aspect to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 Georgetown -> Lake City -> Heath Springs this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 Looks a bit active!! Ryan Maue | weathermodels.comVerified account @RyanMaue 5m5 minutes ago More I'd expect all 3 to be hurricanes by next week ... Florence, Helene and Isaac. Something in the Gulf may be brewing as well -- and even if it is not named -- could be a heavy, tropical rain event for Texas. (ECMWF simulated water vapor satellite (https://weathermodels.com ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sw NC weather Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 Stalls out over nw NC on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 Euro 156,its south of 0z.trend is still south and it might continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 7, 2018 Author Share Posted September 7, 2018 9 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: Looks a bit active!! Ryan Maue | weathermodels.comVerified account @RyanMaue 5m5 minutes ago More I'd expect all 3 to be hurricanes by next week ... Florence, Helene and Isaac. Something in the Gulf may be brewing as well -- and even if it is not named -- could be a heavy, tropical rain event for Texas. (ECMWF simulated water vapor satellite (https://weathermodels.com ) Right on time for my grass sowing project. Course the seed is liable to end up on a riverbank down east somewhere. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 Lots and lots of rain and wind inland!! Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 2m2 minutes ago More The 12z ECMWF track for #Florence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 [ Maybe a good soaker too! Wow!!!IMG]https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20180907/74b95859cd85a4badc1ffa9e610d569d.jpg[/img]. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 7, 2018 Author Share Posted September 7, 2018 Over 3 days straight of tropical rain per euro. Forget the hurricane force wind gust it gets all the way up into triad along with the tornado spin ups. That much rain would not bolld well for alot of folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 Many areas in western NC have already had a surplus of rain this year. A stalling hurricane plus strong wind gusts over this area would be terrible. Let's hope against that outcome. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 Just now, NCSNOW said: Over 3 days straight of tropical rain per euro. Forget the hurricane force wind gust it gets all the way up into triad along with the tornado spin ups. That much rain would not bolld well for alot of folks. I agree, could/would be devastating with this scenario! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: [ Maybe a good soaker too! Wow!!! IMG]https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20180907/74b95859cd85a4badc1ffa9e610d569d.jpg[/img] . We better hope that the two possible systems trailing Florence don't develop and follow a similar path. One of my earliest weather memories was in 1955 when hurricane Connie went through and was quickly followed by hurricane Dianne. The flooding was horrendous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 Just now, jburns said: We better hope that the two possible systems trailing Florence don't develop and follow a similar path. One of my earliest weather memories was in 1955 when hurricane Connie went through and was quickly followed by hurricane Dianne. The flooding was horrendous You're right! A lot on the table here!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, jburns said: We better hope that the two possible systems trailing Florence don't develop and follow a similar path. One of my earliest weather memories was in 1955 when hurricane Connie went through and was quickly followed by hurricane Dianne. The flooding was horrendous Or more recently, Dennis/Floyd in 99 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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