powderfreak Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 8 minutes ago, Hoth said: It certainly has historic potential and is worthy of discussion, but I thought the centralized tropical forum was created for that, while regional sub forums were more for local impact. Doesn't matter either way I guess. Yeah that's sort of what I thought, but it's been so quiet in New England I guess it doesn't matter if there's a pinned thread for a tropical storm not likely to impact NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
duncanwxnh Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 OR unlike the Winter storms that don't hit us then this storm which is not therefore likely will. Don't understand the 'issue' with the thread being pinned. Discussion is always healthy with the models playing the 'model' game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 GEFS have 3 to 4 inches of rain the next 4 days.. as it looks Florence looks to stay away from the most part, .. but I wonder if in a week or so it could bring flooding around here with the remants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 2 hours ago, duncanwxnh said: OR unlike the Winter storms that don't hit us then this storm which is not therefore likely will. Don't understand the 'issue' with the thread being pinned. Discussion is always healthy with the models playing the 'model' game. Well, while parsing that first sentence's structure nearly gave me a stroke, if we're fine pinning threads for events that probably will not affect us, why not pin one for west coast wild fires or Oklahoma tornado outbreaks or typhoons? I understand why the thread was originally created--there was a period when models suggested we might have some direct or peripheral impact--but that appears to be a vanishingly small probability at this point. The SE forum doesn't even have theirs pinned. Ours is still there and anyone can easily find it and use it, but why does it need to be pinned prominently at the top of the page? It's a silly thing to nitpick; it doesn't matter a wit; I just thought it odd since we're probably going to be lucky to sniff cirrus from Florence and there are plenty of other venues to discuss the storm in the main forum and other more directly impacted sub forums. Anyway, please carry on. Flo appears to have mixed out most of the dry air, shear is relaxing and hot towers are starting to wrap around the center. It should have a long runway to intensify from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 Epic water disaster in the making if models are correct, add in upslope something Harvey didn't have Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 33 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Epic water disaster in the making if models are correct, add in upslope something Harvey didn't have Yeah - was thinking that too. Hopefully it stalls prior to the mountains? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 6 hours ago, Hoth said: Is there a reason this thread is pinned? Feels kinda like one of those winter threads where we put up 50 pages of analysis for a storm that whiffs everyone but James. I can unpin it if people would like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 qpf is insane. 2+ feet of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 10, 2018 Author Share Posted September 10, 2018 I think OBX is the spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 1 hour ago, sbos_wx said: I think OBX is the spot. Head south wink wink. gfs and icon only one supporting that lol. Even the new shiny fv3-gfs is the NC/SC border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 10 hours ago, duncanwxnh said: OR unlike the Winter storms that don't hit us then this storm which is not therefore likely will. Don't understand the 'issue' with the thread being pinned. Discussion is always healthy with the models playing the 'model' game. That first sentence...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 Euro into Myrtle Beach and eps agrees: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Euro into Myrtle Beach and eps agrees: Is this the start of a trend further south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 Everything else is north. Seems like Euro gonna correct north again. Ukie is way north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 I’d side more with euro guidance even if it’s a bit too far SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 Besides Charleston, there's no big population centers on the coast until you reach the tidewater. Which is good in this case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 33 minutes ago, Whineminster said: Besides Charleston, there's no big population centers on the coast until you reach the tidewater. Which is good in this case. Ideally this makes LF somewhere in Georgetown Co and pushes into Williamsburg Co as there are sparse populations in each. That's not out of the question either with current Euro track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Everything else is north. Seems like Euro gonna correct north again. Ukie is way north Ukie was also way south to start, not trusted. Last several eps runs keeps moving the mean south. Seasonal trend of a strong persistent WAR, your fave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 1 hour ago, Modfan said: Is this the start of a trend further south? The clustering has packed into SC and lower NC, sure. Either way, regardless of LF....where it parks itself is the bigger story for big floods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bairn Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: The clustering has packed into SC and lower NC, sure. Either way, regardless of LF....where it parks itself is the bigger story for big floods. Hi Guys, lurked for over 10 years with only an occasional post, living in Charlton, but moved to Raleigh 6 mos ago. This thing appears to have us in its sights. I am a bit concerned about flooding and pine trees. I did spend all summer laughing at all your heat advisories, though. Just an average day down here. Kevin, you want dews and sticky seats, I got a spare bedroom and toilet. Unbelievable... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 10 minutes ago, bairn said: Hi Guys, lurked for over 10 years with only an occasional post, living in Charlton, but moved to Raleigh 6 mos ago. This thing appears to have us in its sights. I am a bit concerned about flooding and pine trees. I did spend all summer laughing at all your heat advisories, though. Just an average day down here. Kevin, you want dews and sticky seats, I got a spare bedroom and toilet. Unbelievable... Yea man looks rough, just don't hide out in the bairn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 16 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Yea man looks rough, just don't hide out in the bairn A blue Rockport, TX shed would suffice though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 9 hours ago, CT Rain said: Yeah - was thinking that too. Hopefully it stalls prior to the mountains? EPS % chance precip over 10 inches, insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 1 hour ago, bairn said: Hi Guys, lurked for over 10 years with only an occasional post, living in Charlton, but moved to Raleigh 6 mos ago. This thing appears to have us in its sights. I am a bit concerned about flooding and pine trees. I did spend all summer laughing at all your heat advisories, though. Just an average day down here. Kevin, you want dews and sticky seats, I got a spare bedroom and toilet. Unbelievable... It's the lone standing pines you really need to worry about, the pine forests and groups of pines should mostly be ok due to their root mat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: The clustering has packed into SC and lower NC, sure. Either way, regardless of LF....where it parks itself is the bigger story for big floods. No doubt! However, if it comes in at Cat 4, wind will be a story as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, MarkO said: No doubt! However, if it comes in at Cat 4, wind will be a story as well. Deff. An awful event unfolding from multiple angles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bairn Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 2 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: It's the lone standing pines you really need to worry about, the pine forests and groups of pines should mostly be ok due to their root mat. Lone pines, recently disturbed by lot clearing...along with other free standing irritated trees. I’ll be happy to provide blow by blow (pun intended) coverage if there is any interest. I’m a New Englander and don’t frighten easily, but this looks ominous-winds in trop force range Thurs-Fri evening, even here in Raleigh. Can’t even buy milk as it will go bad in minutes. Just give me a blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 10, 2018 Author Share Posted September 10, 2018 I have a tendency to think euro is too far south which would fit with the carolinas idea. Going to keep sticking to my guns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 4 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: I have a tendency to think euro is too far south which would fit with the carolinas idea. Going to keep sticking to my guns. That you’ll be shocked if it makes LF south of Hatterras.....don’t play with guns if they loaded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 10, 2018 Author Share Posted September 10, 2018 5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: That you’ll be shocked if it makes LF south of Hatterras.....don’t play with guns if they loaded. I just googled a map of North Carolina because I have no knowledge of its' geography (lol) I guess I'd favor it going north of Morehead City, more so Hatteras itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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