RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 The guards have been sent home from SNE to rest, and to prepare for dispatch to the SE coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 7, 2018 Author Share Posted September 7, 2018 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: The guards have been sent home from SNE to rest, and to prepare for dispatch to the SE coast. I'll be shocked if it landfalls anywhere south of Cape Hatt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 looks like time for me to go back to sleep, see you when the weather is interesting around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 7 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: I'll be shocked if it landfalls anywhere south of Cape Hatt Shocked gif on standby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 All guidance has been trending stronger with the ridge. That would increase confidence in a southerly solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 SC coast is gonna be wiped clean . Could be similar to PR last fall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 Carolinas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: SC coast is gonna be wiped clean . Could be similar to PR last fall Thankfully the Carolinas have a much better infrastructure than PR.. their power grid was practically held together by rubber bands and duct tape prior to Maria. Though if the south trends continue this could suddenly become a Florida problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 Euro is again a SC hit. Unlike the GFS which brings the storm inland and then up through NE as a soaker the Euro just stalls it in the Carolinas while they get epic rainfall. Either way an OTS scenario is getting less and less and someone on on the east coast is going to get a wholp. Especially with a southern solution, the storm will be a major at landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 The fv3 gfs is literally doing a full loop off the coast of Va/Nc lol that would be something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 That ridge is a beast. No way we see more than a gentle onshore breeze with that look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 Record heat is more likely for us next week with that wAR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Record heat is more likely for us next week with that wAR. Not necessarily. If the ridge/high was positioned over the SE US perhaps but we'll likely just see dews well into the mid and upper 70's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 7, 2018 Author Share Posted September 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Record heat is more likely for us next week with that wAR. Wut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 1 minute ago, sbos_wx said: Wut You’re gonna bake under that HP while Flo goes into SC and rots over inland SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 7, 2018 Author Share Posted September 7, 2018 10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: You’re gonna bake under that HP while Flo goes into SC and rots over inland SE I just looked at all model guidance... It's 60's and 70's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 12z Euro ENS. Are no help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 Looks pretty helpful to me. Majority are South of Hatteras. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 6 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 12z Euro ENS. Are no help This concerns me (at least being in FL) Ukie did the best with Irma last year and has had a North FL/GA line type of track; hoping it comes no further south! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 This is a GAto NC special. Very little to no chance here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 25 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 12z Euro ENS. Are no help Tracks from previous runs going up the Chesapeake or towards NYC seem to be lost.. Really high number of hits vs. misses for Daytona-Hatteras on this run with 0 direct hits North of ACY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: This is a GAto NC special. Very little to no chance here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 1 hour ago, sbos_wx said: I'll be shocked if it landfalls anywhere south of Cape Hatt I would not. I'd be shocked at anywhere north of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I would not. I'd be shocked at anywhere north of there. Yeah, unless Florence undergoes rapid intensification much sooner than modeled and can climb north a bit, I have a hard time seeing this north of OBX, maybe southern MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 The shape of the coastline makes a S of hatteras hit more likely anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 44 minutes ago, Modfan said: This concerns me (at least being in FL) Ukie did the best with Irma last year and has had a North FL/GA line type of track; hoping it comes no further south! That track could mean a landfall on places like Jacksonville and Savannah that never seem to take a fresh-off-the-ocean hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 Tell you what, if it does ending going into SC or something, hats off to crazy Unc for taking the southern route early and sticking with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 1 hour ago, ineedsnow said: 12z Euro ENS. Are no help Mmm, yeah they are... The straight up 'eye-baller' mean is right down the middle of that spread, and that is about spot on the operational guidance - therein offers a general theme that supports a landfall SE coast. Whether that theme is correct? different call - but that could be construed actually as not bad agreement when using the blend and comparing to the operational version. Although, on the right hand side of that ... is that picking up the forecast track some two days out or - ...i'm asking because it doesn't appeal (otherwise) like they are initializing the position very well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 Hurricane into the SE, tropical storm into Hawaii. Weather channel big ratings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Hurricane into the SE, tropical storm into Hawaii. Weather channel big ratings And our group FTL at work. Heavy heavy conference calls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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