Typhoon Tip Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 11 hours ago, CoastalWx said: However, ridging all summer has been highly anomalous and I think should be considered. Given that, a TC in that locale has not made landfall in the US. bingo! In fact...the entire trajectory of approaching the EC from that model-mean latitude is exceptional - really... If we peer back across seasonality ... very few systems survive that much longitude when flirting with the westerlies...which 'in theory' straddling the 35th parallel is perilous. However, to your point (bold) ...it's almost like this season's unique for that reason. It's almost like the TC rail-tracks (if we will...) are anomalously far N - fascinating, albeit supposition. Either way, this whole Florence is atypical ... and so expect the unexpected. Having said that, I feel through about 108 hours or so off the 06Z operation GFS ...that position is reasonably well handled... After that gets obscured by whether the model (Euro for that matter) is handling the steering influence of the WAR-like ridging with precision - which of course... not likely without luck at this time range. That would be neat to see, a Categorical 'cane approaching Hatteras from the ESE though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 6 minutes ago, bobbutts said: Yes that was the guy on the WC and yes he is predicting a Cat 4...…...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Yes that was the guy on the WC and yes he is predicting a Cat 4...…...lol Someone's hoping that makes a direct hit in Eastern Connecticut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 What is the meteorological (or I guess there are perhaps multiple influences) reasoning behind the rapidly developing and strengthening of the ridge? My take was that it was being influenced by the amplifying trough just off the west coast but I was also wondering if perhaps there some some relation to Florence and latent heat release? Almost looked like that once the models rapidly started to strengthen Florence with rapidly falling SLP the amplification of the ridging occurred in a heartbeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 45 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: What is the meteorological (or I guess there are perhaps multiple influences) reasoning behind the rapidly developing and strengthening of the ridge? My take was that it was being influenced by the amplifying trough just off the west coast but I was also wondering if perhaps there some some relation to Florence and latent heat release? Almost looked like that once the models rapidly started to strengthen Florence with rapidly falling SLP the amplification of the ridging occurred in a heartbeat. There are feed-backs of that nature in atmospheric shenanigans ...such as latent heat release and subsequent geopotential height expansion. We see that often ahead of amplifying troughs over eastern N/A in the winter, where convection explosively contributing immediately down stream will verifying the ridge heights a small number, albeit important number ..., of DM's sometimes higher than actually modeled. Those small numbers of inclusion of heights can have a transitive physical impact on the cyclone track and intensity in some cases...which then goes on to dictating storm complexions of a given area...etc, etc... This all happens at lest than the obvious, too.. In this case, it is more likely that since the heights are blooming and the ridge is strengthening prior/and/or more in tandem, that said strengthening ridge is providing diminishing total shear and providing for a particularly favorable arena for the TC. So the models appear to respond to that favorable environment for growth nearly in step/sync. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: There are feed-backs of that nature in atmospheric shenanigans ...such as latent heat release and subsequent geopotential height expansion. We see that often ahead of amplifying troughs over eastern N/A in the winter, where convection explosively contributing immediately down stream will verifying the ridge heights a small number, albeit important number ..., of DM's. Those small numbers of inclusion of heights has a transitive physical impact on the storm track and intensity in some cases...which then goes on to complexions of how the storm affects a given area...etc, etc... This all happens at lest than the obvious, too.. In this case, it is more likely that since the heights are blooming and the ridge is strengthening prior/and/or more in tandem, it is likelier that said strengthening is diminishing total shear and provided for a particularly favorable arena for the TC. So the models appear to respond to that favorable environment for growth nearly in step/sync. This is an interesting point b/c I feel like this is a major bias within models and I think this is greatly seen with regards to tropical activity and greatly seen in the medium range. If you think about how many times in the past we've seen models in the medium range drive a tropical system into the east coast (or into SNE) anytime they sniff a high in the Atlantic it's pretty amazing. It's almost like in the medium range the models tend to do as you said...respond to what it depicts as a favorable environment. As you're certainly aware weather doesn't always work out that way lol. In the case of this system and exactly where the ridge amplifies is critical (which we know but my point is who's to say that amplification is going to occur right where models have it?). If that ridge axis is like 10-20° farther east there is an escape route (my thinking is the storm would curve and then maybe stall out and do a loop and whatever happens from here...not important) and if its like 10-20° farther west it probably goes into SC. If there is indeed latent heat feedback involved here that's yielding a critical error here and the question is well what does that critical error enact? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 I actually rather like the anomlous track guidance for Florence in this situation ... because of what Scott and I were just discussing, the ridge preponderance being the crucial factor is not without precedence this season. It's been a plaguing anomaly.. .the only difference here is that the models have to handle tossing a 'cane into the mix of it... That said, having a general westward component bias to the track at that latitude appears more than typical fantasy by computer noise out here in time, but actually intuitively fits having yet another in an endless ridge pulsations timed well... I don't think it's really more complicated than that. As Ryan than added, the question is how 'guiding' does that ridge prove to be.... ? Does it guide it headlong into the 'Linas before the parabolic rounding of the ridge ensues... if not, where does that recurving take place. To echo other's implicit sentiment... most if not all NE 'canes come from some variation of a weakness/trough in the OV that effectively captures the system ...think relay. It first starts rounding the ridge...then, gets capture and foisted N ...usually, greatly accelerating because the steering around that sort of construct is pretty directive. So up she comes...careening. In this, case ...we are sans that troughy capturing force... But, the ridge may actually end up placed favorably for the relay - it's just that the other never shows up for the race. The models seems to relay the 'cane into free space... so it rattles around in a slow decay... sprayed all over the map from eastern Ohio to south of NS depending on what ensemble member one sees... Anyway, none of that means it can't get up this far and have a more direct impact in southern NE ... However, the key in the standard model delivery is that 'acceleration' - you kinda need that to get one up this far N before it starts falling apart. So it would be unclear in what form Florence or her remnants take on once it did... If somehow she accelarated... mm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 nc again on GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 5 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: nc again on GFS Lookin' more and more Euro -like, huh - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 I have the 12Z GFS out to almost 10 days on Weatherbell. Landfall E NC. Then north just west of DCA and then NNE to E PA and then W CN as a 999mb low on day 8. That would track would bring a lot of wind to the east of the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 Shocking developments gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 7, 2018 Author Share Posted September 7, 2018 Just keep in mind of the rain impacts this will have in addition to king tides. Track isn't the only story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 5 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: Just keep in mind of the rain impacts this will have in addition to king tides. Track isn't the only story. yeah, some of the areas SW of us have gotten lots of rain already.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 I’m banking on another gusty early season nor’easter up here. Always seems to evolve that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 Wonder if 94l will cause a change in track I bet that's going to screw with the models now to.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 Not worried about prolonged rain here. This will get shoved into the SE coast and any remmants get slung NE afterwards quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 Looking like we see zero impacts other than waves , Buzzsaw into SC.. then fizzle over Apps/ Smokies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 18 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Wonder if 94l will cause a change in track I bet that's going to screw with the models now to.. I was wondering that myself...not only with regards to potential track but intensity as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 Not a bad scenario as the models show now. Can sit back and watch Flo rip someone's a$$ up from the comforts of my own home while enjoying the late summer weather as the WAR flexes its muscles. Not against that at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, Hazey said: Not a bad scenario as the models show now. Can sit back and watch Flo rip someone's a$$ up from the comforts of my own home while enjoying the late summer weather as the WAR flexes its muscles. Not against that at all. +1 Heading to Acadia next weekend ... sun and 70s would be a good gig. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, Hazey said: Not a bad scenario as the models show now. Can sit back and watch Flo rip someone's a$$ up from the comforts of my own home while enjoying the late summer weather as the WAR flexes its muscles. Not against that at all. The 12Z GFS is a bit different. Previous runs had the strong high over us keeping Flo south. This run has Flo coming up the backside and crossing New England as a soaking rain maker. As a front drops S from Canada it actually intensifies Flo as she continues northeast up the Maine coast and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 7 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: The 12Z GFS is a bit different. Previous runs had the strong high over us keeping Flo south. This run has Flo coming up the backside and crossing New England as a soaking rain maker. As a front drops S from Canada it actually intensifies Flo as she continues northeast up the Maine coast and beyond. I noticed that too when l looked at the latest GFS run. It will be interesting to see if that scenario plays out as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 Well I may not bother redoing the front lawn now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 7, 2018 Author Share Posted September 7, 2018 Seems dumb to let your guard down on this one already- this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 How are the water temps off the east coast? Enough to sustain a strong hurricane if/when it makes its approach? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 5 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: Seems dumb to let your guard down on this one already- this far out I agree. Plenty of time for things to change. And there still is quite a bit of model spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 1 minute ago, sbos_wx said: Seems dumb to let your guard down on this one already- this far out Living in FL for several years there were tons of storms that appeared to be a threat in the week+ that never made it close, and FL has a much better chance based on climo. A direct NE impact is always a very low probability at a week out. Right now we are in the game at least, a storm lover in this area can't ask for much more. In terms of preparation, if you need to start preparing a week out, better get started right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 8 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: Seems dumb to let your guard down on this one already- this far out not to be a dink but ...it depends on how certain one is.. There are some scenarios where even as late as the middle range, one just knows - perhaps now is not one of those times. Perhaps. I don't personally have any idea beyond what I mentioned about ...re climo and the native anomalous nature of this whole set up and so forth. Yeah that should inherently lend to uncertainty. ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 15 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: How are the water temps off the east coast? Enough to sustain a strong hurricane if/when it makes its approach? Yes they are warm enough, however, (IMO anyway) that can really only do too much. The link provided earlier isn't really working and it would have been nice to see the depth of the 26C isotherm but if the super warm waters only go down a few meters or whatever (if its very shallow) they can quickly cool due to strong upwelling which would occur well ahead of the system. Also, if Florence slows drastically (good possibility) that as well would really cool down SST's under Florence. I think the only way this really hits the EC as a strong or major hurricane is if it goes straight into like NC or SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 7, 2018 Author Share Posted September 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Yes they are warm enough, however, (IMO anyway) that can really only do too much. The link provided earlier isn't really working and it would have been nice to see the depth of the 26C isotherm but if the super warm waters only go down a few meters or whatever (if its very shallow) they can quickly cool due to strong upwelling which would occur well ahead of the system. Also, if Florence slows drastically (good possibility) that as well would really cool down SST's under Florence. I think the only way this really hits the EC as a strong or major hurricane is if it goes straight into like NC or SC. The warm SSTs are great but will do no good if it stalls and lingers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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