Hurricane Florence

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Look at the rocket fuel ahead. When shear relaxes later tomorrow and weekend we looking at a beast bearing down on the EC of the US

To the moon after the sheer relaxes

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

15 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

To the moon after the sheer relaxes

Wow that does not bode well for the US no matter in which it makes landfall.  Potential intensity is 175mph at day 5, that is as it nears Bermuda.  The headlines by the news will be hype-worthy.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Wow that does not bode well for the US no matter in which it makes landfall.  Potential intensity is 175mph at day 5, that is as it nears Bermuda.  The headlines by the news will be hype-worthy.

Stop.

[yoda]

6 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Wow that does not bode well for the US no matter in which it makes landfall.  Potential intensity is 175mph at day 5, that is as it nears Bermuda.  The headlines by the news will be hype-worthy.

Wtf no

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Just now, yoda said:

Wtf no

Did you see the model?

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Stop.

I didn't say it will happen Ray, I said the potential intensity the model says indicate 175mph

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Start at 175mph and adjust higher.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Start at 175mph and adjust higher.

Wow, do you people know how to read?  Stop it with the attacks like I am someone hyping the situation.  Some of the guidance support a monster of that caliber.  I would say she is near 145mph as she passes Bermuda and intensifies to a 155mph hurricane towards the US coast.  I am not sure if landfall occurs, I am sure we will be better equipped to handle that question later on this weekend.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Wow, do you people know how to read?  Stop it with the attacks like I am someone hyping the situation.  Some of the guidance support a monster of that caliber.  I would say she is near 145mph as she passes Bermuda and intensifies to a 155mph hurricane towards the US coast.  I am not sure if landfall occurs, I am sure we will be better equipped to handle that question later on this weekend.

I'll take the under.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Wow, do you people know how to read?  Stop it with the attacks like I am someone hyping the situation.  Some of the guidance support a monster of that caliber.  I would say she is near 145mph as she passes Bermuda and intensifies to a 155mph hurricane towards the US coast.  I am not sure if landfall occurs, I am sure we will be better equipped to handle that question later on this weekend.

Nah, you....never. 

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll take the under.

Why are you so conservative when it comes to hurricane intensity?  I understand blizzards but hurricanes?

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Nah, you....never. 

Ok i know i do sometimes, but the conditions ahead of it are quite favorable the SHIPS guidance Ginxy showed above these latest posts show shear dropping below 5 knots

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Why are you so conservative when it comes to hurricane intensity?  I understand blizzards but hurricanes?

 

Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Ok i know i do sometimes, but the conditions ahead of it are quite favorable the SHIPS guidance Ginxy showed above these latest posts show shear dropping below 5 knots

Not expecting a 155mph hurricane on the mid atlantic coast is conservative?

Look up how many times that has happened, and get back to me.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Internal processes, and interaction with mid latitude systems will all but ensure that that does not happen.

Could it peak at 155mph?

Sure...possible.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Why are you so conservative when it comes to hurricane intensity?  I understand blizzards but hurricanes?

Is there any guidance that would truly support those numbers even if everything went right?

And I’ll also take the under on any substantial tropical system hitting this area. Its been a long time since we’ve had a significant direct hit here. I’ll be skeptical until it’s actually happening.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Is there any guidance that would truly support those numbers even if everything went right?

And I’ll also take the under on any substantial tropical system hitting this area. Its been a long time since we’ve had a significant direct hit here. I’ll be skeptical until it’s actually happening.

Then you wouldn't be objective going the opposite direction of an over hyper.  I rather get people prepared for the worst case scenario and be ready for it when it does actually happen because when the next storm misses it heightens the odds the next one will eventually make landfall and a terror like an attack will occur on the US East Coast.  I rather take the prepared approach than the one that doubts nature's possibilities.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Is there any guidance that would truly support those numbers even if everything went right?

And I’ll also take the under on any substantial tropical system hitting this area. Its been a long time since we’ve had a significant direct hit here. I’ll be skeptical until it’s actually happening.

Well, to be fair, the majority of the time guidance fails to predict those extreme intensities....those forecasts are relatively unskilled.

My issue is that it won't sustain that intensity to the mid atlantic coast, assuming it peaked that high.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Then you wouldn't be objective going the opposite direction of an over hyper.  I rather get people prepared for the worst case scenario and be ready for it when it does actually happen because when the next storm misses it heightens the odds the next one will eventually make landfall and a terror like an attack will occur on the US East Coast.  I rather take the prepared approach than the one that doubts nature's possibilities.

At these extended lead times, favoring climatology is the course of least regret, and is entirely objective.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'm not really invested yet...if it looks ominous tomorrow night, then I'll fire the blog up and take a break from winter outlook prep.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

At these extended lead times, favoring climatology is the course of least regret, and is entirely objective.

Not when climo has indeed periods of time where multiple hurricanes of Category three or higher strength have made landfall on New England.  CLIMO doesn't favor one over the other.  Odds sure, the odds are low that one will indeed maintain intensity all the way to New England, but when models are clearly showing a pattern evolving showing a mighty 500mb ridge over NE CONUS into the NW Atlantic Ocean, over Florence this will head into the coast at some point and there is no troughs coming to the rescue to cause shear.  Internal processes don't hinder peaks in intensity, they only occur once the hurricane has reached its fullest potential intensity.  When the SHIPS guidance and the GFS guidance both show a major hurricane, perhaps as high as category five intensity it will at least become a spectacle before it meets its fate.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Not when climo has indeed periods of time where multiple hurricanes of Category three or higher strength have made landfall on New England.  CLIMO doesn't favor one over the other.  Odds sure, the odds are low that one will indeed maintain intensity all the way to New England, but when models are clearly showing a pattern evolving showing a mighty 500mb ridge over NE CONUS into the NW Atlantic Ocean, over Florence this will head into the coast at some point and there is no troughs coming to the rescue to cause shear.  Internal processes don't hinder peaks in intensity, they only occur once the hurricane has reached its fullest potential intensity.  When the SHIPS guidance and the GFS guidance both show a major hurricane, perhaps as high as category five intensity it will at least become a spectacle before it meets its fate.

This makes absolutely, positively zero sense.

Major hurricane landfalls in New England are so exceptionally rare that climo absolutely favors benign outcomes.

Additionally, not one hurricane....ever, that crossed the position that Florence in right now has EVER struck the US mainland.....0.000000000.

As for intensity, you are just regurgitating what I have already said...sure, it may peak at 155mph, but it will not hit the mid atlantic coast that that intensity. 

 

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not really invested yet...if it looks ominous tomorrow night, then I'll fire the blog up and take a break from winter outlook prep.

I mean the block to the north certainly makes the whole situation interesting overall, but anyone all in on Florence being a legit event this far out is hog wild. 

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This makes absolutely, positively zero sense.

Major hurricane landfalls in New England are so exceptionally rare that climo absolutely favors benign outcomes.

Additionally, not one hurricane....ever, that crossed the position that Florence in right now has EVER struck the US mainland.....0.000000000.

 

Do you hear yourself?  1950s had several major hurricanes strike the SNE coast, and just because the previous odds say 0% doesn't mean the next one can't, you of all people should understand that.  Before Jan 2005, Cape Cod was thought to have maybe a few 30" snowstorms in the past, and in the last ten years, we have had 2 such storms.  So do not tell me the impossible is never possible.  We also got the most severe wind storm of our lifetime on Cape Cod in DEC of 2005, where unconfirmed reports of 120mph wind gusts hit the Orleans, Brewster and Eastham towns of the Outer Cape.  While yes in your eyes rarity is a great form of identity, the impossible is always possible.  There is only one such thing that is certain in life and that is death.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, PeabodyFlood said:

I mean the block to the north certainly makes the whole situation interesting overall, but anyone all in on Florence being a legit event this far out is hog wild. 

I mean, even if modeling depicts a perfect 500mb layout for a LI express...at this range it isn't worth much....just emphasizes preparedness.

Perfect scenarios have gone to $hit at 24 hours out, never mind 240.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

And plus I don't even know where I got on the side of the hurricane making landfall, I don't even think that will happen, just because I mentioned her peaking at possible 175mph, because a run of guidance suggests that is the potential and somehow I am on board with the category five hurricane making landfall on New England.  I do not support that at all.  I think we will know a lot more by Sunday.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I mean, even if modeling depicts a perfect 500mb layout for a LI express...at this range it isn't worth much....just emphasizes preparedness.

Perfect scenarios have gone to $hit at 24 hours out, never mind 240.

The only point I wanted to make, is the impossible is always possible in life, without that belief, nothing in life is ever interesting enough.

[Ginx snewx]

Throwing it out there, new moon goon tides next week just sayin

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Do you hear yourself?  1950s had several major hurricanes strike the SNE coast, and just because the previous odds say 0% doesn't mean the next one can't, you of all people should understand that.  Before Jan 2005, Cape Cod was thought to have maybe a few 30" snowstorms in the past, and in the last ten years, we have had 2 such storms.  So do not tell me the impossible is never possible.  We also got the most severe wind storm of our lifetime on Cape Cod in DEC of 2005, where unconfirmed reports of 120mph wind gusts hit the Orleans, Brewster and Eastham towns of the Outer Cape.  While yes in your eyes rarity is a great form of identity, the impossible is always possible.  There is only one such thing that is certain in life and that is death.

Had you even a modicum of reading comprehension, you would have gleaned that favoring a given outcome due to climo is not declaring something as "impossible".

You said that "climo doesn't favor one over the other".

It does....but that doesn't mean its impossible.

Atlanta, GA could see  March 1993 redux this season, but climo does not favor that.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

The only point I wanted to make, is the impossible is always possible in life, without that belief, nothing in life is ever interesting enough.

You’re the best. Keep fighting the good fight and never give up. 

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Had you even a modicum of reading comprehension, you would have gleaned that favoring a given outcome due to climo is not declaring something as "impossible".

You said that "climo doesn't favor one over the other".

It does....but that doesn't mean its impossible.

Atlanta, GA could see  March 1993 redux this season, but climo does not favor that.

you understand my position, you just like arguing Ray.