Hurricane Florence

[CT Rain]

1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

In general we suck at intensity, models included. The two major global models have serious biases (Euro good pressure/poor wind speeds, GFS terrible pressure/good wind speeds). 

As for the shear, it's possible. But there are a whole host of reason that nearing land is bad for strengthening. You start entraining dry air off the land, you add friction and slow winds speeds which reduces convergence, etc.

We also suck so bad at communication. The Saffir-Simpson scale isn't great at all for communicating risk.

People are so confused by all the threats and what to expect. 

[OceanStWx]

24 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Indirectly related to the present discussion...

My biggest concern with this Florence handling has been the Media's portrayal. 

The cinema they produce is staggering ... I mean, the 'calculated' adjective rotations they ply to 'jolt' the masses into following along ...turns these sort of specters into cash-cows for them. Call it 'cry wolf' phenomenon... it just gets saturating to the point of being jaded by them. 'Oh, right - 'nother one of those.'

I hate that...

However (ironically) if those uncertainties in intensities (and however much that also pertains to track guidance... et al) are as enigmatic (which may be too strong of a word in its own rite) as y'all are elaborating... I guess the bias on the 'over-sell' side is probably got a hidden blessing to it.  Like, if society and media et al wait around to clear up uncertainties, it would be too late in most cases; then, ...we are talking about the difference between death and perhaps mere inconvenience for having gone through a prep course proven less than necessary -

Therein is a deeper rub, too - that 'unnecessary'   - because, it is necessary until it is proven not, is too often forgotten when peering back at the end result - which of course is less than entirely fair. 

In any case, getting folks to board up windows and chain their eaves, pick up lose lawn flotsam ...generally secure property and or evacuate, I almost wonder if that should just be built into a region's sort of prerequisite requirement for living there - in an ideal world, I'm sure that people that live from Long Island, NY to Brownsville, TX within some 50 nautical miles of the shore, would just accept that every five to ten years of climo they're taking a few days off from normal life whether they want to or not, and just roll with that. 

Until such time as those uncertainties become less guiding -

This was a tough one. It was forecast to be a Cat 4 a few days out, but even as it weakened categories it still carries/d a huge surge and freshwater flooding threat. The media had to pivot from communicating a Cat 4 landfall (easy) to communicating a flooding threat (harder).

And sure enough there were hundreds of swift water rescues in New Bern, and the freshwater flooding is just getting going. 

[codfishsnowman]

1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

I mean it looks bad, and will feed the public perception that this forecast was all hype, but I will defend this situation. Seidel was likely in the shadow of a building with wind whipping around the corner (probably trying to stage a shot to show a little more wind than ambient), and those two guys were walking with the wind and not trying to stand still. 

I mean obs from the area were all gusting over 50 knots at times, so it's not like conditions were made up.

Switzerland

[OceanStWx]

8 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

We also suck so bad at communication. The Saffir-Simpson scale isn't great at all for communicating risk.

People are so confused by all the threats and what to expect. 

It is definitely an outdated scale. Nearly 4 in 5 people are dying from water related threats, and we more or less ignore that in Saffir-Simpson. IKE could at least capture surge as a proxy of wind radii, but still isn't explicit about it. 

Sandy is a perfect example: meh-ed by the masses, but extremely destructive due to its size. 

[CT Rain]

Just now, OceanStWx said:

It is definitely an outdated scale. Nearly 4 in 5 people are dying from water related threats, and we more or less ignore that in Saffir-Simpson. IKE could at least capture surge as a proxy of wind radii, but still isn't explicit about it. 

Sandy is a perfect example: meh-ed by the masses, but extremely destructive due to its size. 

It's so hard to communicate threats too. How do you tell someone to expect flooding when they've never had water on their street? How do you tell someone to expect surge when they've never flooded (look at New Bern which was a worst case scenario fetch/wind direction). 

Also, what about the people who thought this was going to be a 4 and came in as a 1. Do they leave next time? Probably not. 

We evacuate for surge but not really for inland flooding or wind. 

Just so many challenging things to figure out and communicate. 

[OceanStWx]

6 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

It's so hard to communicate threats too. How do you tell someone to expect flooding when they've never had water on their street? How do you tell someone to expect surge when they've never flooded (look at New Bern which was a worst case scenario fetch/wind direction). 

Also, what about the people who thought this was going to be a 4 and came in as a 1. Do they leave next time? Probably not. 

We evacuate for surge but not really for inland flooding or wind. 

Just so many challenging things to figure out and communicate. 

My guess is this will harden the opinion of folks who think they never have to evacuate. 

The reality is that there are few hurricanes that ever make landfall with winds that are truly life threatening if you take proper shelter. But like you say, it's water showing up in places that have never had it in your lifetime that surprises people. Nearest I can tell, my parents sit at about 18 ft (NAVD88), I'm not sure they know that another 1938 or even Carol would be sending water down their street and lapping at the front door.

But the house was built in 1955, so we really don't know how it would handle storms like those. That's not an uncommon problem for most people.

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, CT Rain said:

Yeah I noticed that as well. Trees were OK but gas station canopies and power poles were all over the place.

The number of transformers we saw blow was pretty wild. 

Seems that some areas of ILM got hit a lot worse than others, as is usually the case

 

https://twitter.com/tbrite89/status/1040990013117394944

 

[Ginx snewx]

2 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

 

As for the shear, it's possible. But there are a whole host of reason that nearing land is bad for strengthening. You start entraining dry air off the land, you add friction and slow winds speeds which reduces convergence, etc.

Flo actually tightened up some right before LF, look at mimic

[wxeyeNH]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Indirectly related to the present discussion...

My biggest concern with this Florence handling has been the Media's portrayal. 

 

 

Tip....  You are 110% right.  The hype was over the top,  especially once it was downgraded to a Cat 1.  

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Flo actually tightened up some right before LF, look at mimic

It did have the bonus of tracking over the Gulf Stream. 

But wow what a moisture feed into the ILM area now. Cold cloud tops, lots of lightning. And high Z, with low ZDR is a classic signal for tropical rain rates. 

[Cold Miser]

16 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

ferocious

 

lolz.

That made my morning.

[Hoth]

1 hour ago, Cold Miser said:

lolz.

That made my morning.

Mike Seidel skips leg day.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Seems that some areas of ILM got hit a lot worse than others, as is usually the case

 

https://twitter.com/tbrite89/status/1040990013117394944

 

A couple of live oaks down which is impressive. But one of those is a silver maple which just shouldn’t be planted in hurricane prone areas. Their older tree stock made it through that 135mph gust and plenty of other hurricanes. A 105mph gust would cause major tree damage up here just like 38 and carol.

[weathafella]

Certainly won’t end up in the top tier annals.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

4 hours ago, Cold Miser said:

lolz.

That made my morning.

Gotta sell it! 

That certainly won’t help public perception 

[weatherwiz]

10 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

In general we suck at intensity, models included. The two major global models have serious biases (Euro good pressure/poor wind speeds, GFS terrible pressure/good wind speeds). 

As for the shear, it's possible. But there are a whole host of reason that nearing land is bad for strengthening. You start entraining dry air off the land, you add friction and slow winds speeds which reduces convergence, etc.

From the little I know about hurricanes those were two factors I did know and thought about often as the week progressed. How often do we really see slow moving systems strike the EC as a major hurricane? As for the dry air I looked alot at mid-level WV imagery and low-level WV imagery...I noticed low-level had tons of dry air around...are both levels extremely important to look at or is any one level more important than the other?

[OceanStWx]

12 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

From the little I know about hurricanes those were two factors I did know and thought about often as the week progressed. How often do we really see slow moving systems strike the EC as a major hurricane? As for the dry air I looked alot at mid-level WV imagery and low-level WV imagery...I noticed low-level had tons of dry air around...are both levels extremely important to look at or is any one level more important than the other?

Mid level dry air is important, because it can cause cold downdrafts that choke off convection. Plus lower levels tend to be more moist in general.

[CT Rain]

21 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Seems that some areas of ILM got hit a lot worse than others, as is usually the case

 

https://twitter.com/tbrite89/status/1040990013117394944

 

Oh yeah there were tons of trees down and trees shredded. I was just comparing the number down there compared to what would happen here with 24 hours of TS winds and a peak 90 knot gust.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

 Give it another day and the national media will have stopped paying  attention yet the floodwaters will still be rising and causing heart ache.

[wxeyeNH]

12Z Sunday Euro and GFS are in very good agreement as to where the heavy rain sets up with Flo coming up and out to sea.  Just north of this cut off line, there is a big rainfall deficit over the past several months.  Just south of the line there has been excessive rain over the same period.  Wish we could reverse this and give me ( the X) and points north a good soak.  On and on this goes.....

12Z Euro forecasted rainfall for Flo

[OceanStWx]

10 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

12Z Sunday Euro and GFS are in very good agreement as to where the heavy rain sets up with Flo coming up and out to sea.  Just north of this cut off line, there is a big rainfall deficit over the past several months.  Just south of the line there has been excessive rain over the same period.  Wish we could reverse this and give me ( the X) and points north a good soak.  On and on this goes.....

12Z Euro forecasted rainfall for Flo

Just tack on another 2.5" for Dendrite to go on top of the 10.15" he has since 8/1. 

[bobbutts]

6 hours ago, CT Rain said:

Oh yeah there were tons of trees down and trees shredded. I was just comparing the number down there compared to what would happen here with 24 hours of TS winds and a peak 90 knot gust.

I'm guessing your conclusion was that NE would be much worse in terms of tree damage?  From what I remember from Gloria on Cape Ann the winds were solidly TS but for a much shorter duration, tree damage was still widespread.

[Hoth]

2 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

 

Let's save this output for January...although DIT, Berg and I would probably have a melt if the QPF distribution actually looked like that.

[HoarfrostHubb]

23 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Let's save this output for January...although DIT, Berg and I would probably have a melt if the QPF distribution actually looked like that.

I would love this depiction in the winter.      

We really don’t need 4-5” of rain in my hood though.  Ugh

[wxeyeNH]

1 hour ago, Hoth said:

Let's save this output for January...although DIT, Berg and I would probably have a melt if the QPF distribution actually looked like that.

The trend for the swath of heaviest rain has been to push it south with each run.  The new 18Z GFS has reversed that trend and brings the swath north a bit.  It has the real heavy rain running roughly along the Mass Pike on the southern edge and up to the Whites on the northern edge.  I'm sure more adjustments forthcoming.  

[powderfreak]

On 9/15/2018 at 9:40 AM, OceanStWx said:

I mean it looks bad, and will feed the public perception that this forecast was all hype, but I will defend this situation. Seidel was likely in the shadow of a building with wind whipping around the corner (probably trying to stage a shot to show a little more wind than ambient), and those two guys were walking with the wind and not trying to stand still. 

I mean obs from the area were all gusting over 50 knots at times, so it's not like conditions were made up.

Yeah I'm sure he put himself in a location that enhanced the wind (ie near a structure or between two barriers), as I know how this works...they go look around for the best footage and locations that viewers will find exciting. Still though, I bet there's some embellishment but it's not because he's trying to get viewers, but because he loves exciting weather and was in the heat of the battle.  

You can never truly take out the inner weenie...

[alex]

On 9/15/2018 at 10:42 AM, Typhoon Tip said:

Indirectly related to the present discussion...

My biggest concern with this Florence handling has been the Media's portrayal. 

The cinema they produce is staggering ... I mean, the 'calculated' adjective rotations they ply to 'jolt' the masses into following along ...turns these sort of specters into cash-cows for them. Call it 'cry wolf' phenomenon... it just gets saturating to the point of being jaded by them. 'Oh, right - 'nother one of those.'

I hate that...

However (ironically) if those uncertainties in intensities (and however much that also pertains to track guidance... et al) are as enigmatic (which may be too strong of a word in its own rite) as y'all are elaborating... I guess the bias on the 'over-sell' side is probably got a hidden blessing to it.  Like, if society and media et al wait around to clear up uncertainties, it would be too late in most cases; then, ...we are talking about the difference between death and perhaps mere inconvenience for having gone through a prep course proven less than necessary -

Therein is a deeper rub, too - that 'unnecessary'   - because, it is necessary until it is proven not, is too often forgotten when peering back at the end result - which of course is less than entirely fair. 

In any case, getting folks to board up windows and chain their eaves, pick up lose lawn flotsam ...generally secure property and or evacuate, I almost wonder if that should just be built into a region's sort of prerequisite requirement for living there - in an ideal world, I'm sure that people that live from Long Island, NY to Brownsville, TX within some 50 nautical miles of the shore, would just accept that every five to ten years of climo they're taking a few days off from normal life whether they want to or not, and just roll with that. 

Until such time as those uncertainties become less guiding -

Interesting that I've been in that boat for the first time in my life. Living on a flood plain, I have to accept it's going to happen. Last time it was 6" of rain in 12 hours that did it. I'm sure many would not put up with the idea that every 10 years or so your house will be inundated... But as long as you're safe, it's manageable. Our main issue was the power outage which affected the whole region for 4 or 5 days. Other than that, I was somewhat surprised that we were able to go from a completely flooded lower level - 3 feet of water or so - to completely back to normal in less than a week. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 hours ago, Hoth said:

Let's save this output for January...although DIT, Berg and I would probably have a melt if the QPF distribution actually looked like that.

I’d quit this hobby. 

[OceanStWx]

14 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah I'm sure he put himself in a location that enhanced the wind (ie near a structure or between two barriers), as I know how this works...they go look around for the best footage and locations that viewers will find exciting. Still though, I bet there's some embellishment but it's not because he's trying to get viewers, but because he loves exciting weather and was in the heat of the battle.  

You can never truly take out the inner weenie...

In the last couple of days his crew has released a statement in his defense. But he set up exactly as I suspect, with a building to his right (our left) which had wind whipping around it.

I mean it works double, protects his crew and allows him to step into the more extreme conditions. 

[OceanStWx]

Such a strange evolution of the remnants of Florence. 

The high PWAT air mass is drawn north into a convergent zone that has fairly good consensus near the MA/NH border. That squeezes out the heavy rain. But the actual core of Florence gets cut off from the trough and slides SE and back out to sea. The level circulation very clearly goes back into the Atlantic across the Chesapeake.