Hurricane Florence

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Wierd, gfs had awful runs with track and intensity. DT will find a way to spin this, not Donald though this time...just Dave. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

So, what's up with the storm?  I haven't paid much attention over the last 2 days.

[dendrite]

23 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Wierd, gfs had awful runs with track and intensity. DT will find a way to spin this, not Donald though this time...just Dave. 

NCEP has the best model. Look at the size of those computers. Do those look like small computers? If they were small, the computing would be small. And I guarantee you there is no problem.

[Cold Miser]

35 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

So, what's up with the storm?  I haven't paid much attention over the last 2 days.

Check the internet.  You will probably find some info there.

[Baroclinic Zone]

39 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Check the internet.  You will probably find some info there.

I don't have time for that nonsense.

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

NCEP has the best model. Look at the size of those computers. Do those look like small computers? If they were small, the computing would be small. And I guarantee you there is no problem.

Donald did say this would be the wettest hurricane with the most water...amounts of water that haven't been seen in a while.

[OceanStWx]

16 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Donald did say this would be the wettest hurricane with the most water...amounts of water that haven't been seen in a while.

Tremendously big and tremendously wet. 

I'll say, he's not wrong...

It may break both the NC state record rainfall, and it is quite expansive in terms of wind radii.

[powderfreak]

4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Tremendously big and tremendously wet. 

I'll say, he's not wrong...

It may break both the NC state record rainfall, and it is quite expansive in terms of wind radii.

If it's not tremendous, it's boring.  Not boring.

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

If it's not tremendous, it's boring.  Not boring.

In addition to misery mist and freshet, I will now attempt to add in his,"the storm will come in, and it will go out" to an AFD.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I don't have time for that nonsense.

We will check it for you and send you an email.

[tamarack]

My niece's kids, age 6 and 4, are having such a good time at the CLT hotel where they're waiting out the storm (they live one town inland from ILM) that she's a bit concerned that they will root for more hurricanes so they can get another fun vacation.

[OceanStWx]

7 minutes ago, tamarack said:

My niece's kids, age 6 and 4, are having such a good time at the CLT hotel where they're waiting out the storm (they live one town inland from ILM) that she's a bit concerned that they will root for more hurricanes so they can get another fun vacation.

That's probably a great way to look at it. At best you escaped disaster, at worst you got a little vacation out of it. You know, depending on how you look at these things.

[weatherwiz]

2 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

Tremendously big and tremendously wet. 

I'll say, he's not wrong...

It may break both the NC state record rainfall, and it is quite expansive in terms of wind radii.

Some areas are going to get like 35-45'' of rain out of this. Was looking at 12z runs coming out today and some of the newer guidance has rainfall totals now over 50'' come Sunday night. I've thought all along that the WPC rainfall forecasts were under doing rainfall totals a bit. 

Also, on the winds I read something interesting on twitter...I forgot who it was but he was saying the the "weakening" (in terms of categories and sustained winds) was very misleading...all the storm did was transfer its energy from a small/compact wind field to a much larger wind field. For a large chunk of time hurricane force winds were only extending 40 miles or so from the center...now its like 70 miles with TS force winds nearly 200 miles. 

[OceanStWx]

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Some areas are going to get like 35-45'' of rain out of this. Was looking at 12z runs coming out today and some of the newer guidance has rainfall totals now over 50'' come Sunday night. I've thought all along that the WPC rainfall forecasts were under doing rainfall totals a bit. 

Also, on the winds I read something interesting on twitter...I forgot who it was but he was saying the the "weakening" (in terms of categories and sustained winds) was very misleading...all the storm did was transfer its energy from a small/compact wind field to a much larger wind field. For a large chunk of time hurricane force winds were only extending 40 miles or so from the center...now its like 70 miles with TS force winds nearly 200 miles. 

Each time a TC goes through an ERC the wind field expands. Florence had a period there where ERCs were happening quite frequently. It hurt in terms of max winds, but like you say helped to expand the wind field to be quite large.

When you view it in terms of integrated kinetic energy (IKE), taking the radius in all four quads of TS winds, you can get a sense for how powerful the overall system is. Florence actually ranks alongside Irene, Sandy, and Ike. Though this still doesn't capture flooding (freshwater or surge (though wind radius does affect surge)). 

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Each time a TC goes through an ERC the wind field expands. Florence had a period there where ERCs were happening quite frequently. It hurt in terms of max winds, but like you say helped to expand the wind field to be quite large.

When you view it in terms of integrated kinetic energy (IKE), taking the radius in all four quads of TS winds, you can get a sense for how powerful the overall system is. Florence actually ranks alongside Irene, Sandy, and Ike. Though this still doesn't capture flooding (freshwater or surge (though wind radius does affect surge)). 

This is very interesting and something I want to explore. I'm taking an elective tropical meteorology class right now...perhaps we can go over something like this. I've never really done with with tropical forecasting before but this past week has really been intriguing for me...doing briefings for Florence, Isaac, and Olivia and paying attention to weakening/strengthening, etc. 

Going to what you said about ERC's there was something I was thinking about...on Wednesday when I did my school broadcast I had the IR up from the AM and based on the presentation it had along with cooling cloud tops I thought it would strengthen further but it did just the opposite...started weakening.

Is it possible that when it was under going the numerous ERC's that during these processes the combination of dry air and strong shear prevented the strengthening aspect after the completion of an ERC? Basically what I'm trying to get at is if not for the shear/some dry air after the initial ERC Wednesday morning would strengthening had ensued? Or was it the constant ERC's which led to the weakening? 

(As a note weakening should be in quotations b/c I totally understand that the aspect of the weakening is very minute)

[OceanStWx]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

This is very interesting and something I want to explore. I'm taking an elective tropical meteorology class right now...perhaps we can go over something like this. I've never really done with with tropical forecasting before but this past week has really been intriguing for me...doing briefings for Florence, Isaac, and Olivia and paying attention to weakening/strengthening, etc. 

Going to what you said about ERC's there was something I was thinking about...on Wednesday when I did my school broadcast I had the IR up from the AM and based on the presentation it had along with cooling cloud tops I thought it would strengthen further but it did just the opposite...started weakening.

Is it possible that when it was under going the numerous ERC's that during these processes the combination of dry air and strong shear prevented the strengthening aspect after the completion of an ERC? Basically what I'm trying to get at is if not for the shear/some dry air after the initial ERC Wednesday morning would strengthening had ensued? Or was it the constant ERC's which led to the weakening? 

(As a note weakening should be in quotations b/c I totally understand that the aspect of the weakening is very minute)

It's possible. It's also possible that undergoing multiple ERCs in rapid succession stalled strengthening.

But tropical meteorology is funny like that. Most mets take one course (if at all) and then every 2-10+ years depending on where you work kind of fly by the seat of their pants with knowledge.

I took tropical at Hawai'i-Manoa () but our professor (Schroeder who collaborated with some of the original Air Force guys that wrote the book on tropical) didn't even touch tropical cyclones. His point was valid, that tropical cyclones are such a small percentage of the day to day weather in the tropics, he needed to teach us the foundational stuff first. So I never had a course that covered tropical cyclones at all. I've had to learn it on the fly. 

[wxeyeNH]

I'm starting to watch what happens with Flo as the storm gets caught up in the westerlies and we get the moisture next Tuesday.  I hope the swath of rain is right up here in Central New England.  Still big rainfall deficit since April for me.  A nice 2-4" would be great.   Not just rain, but a wet, wet rain.

[Damage In Tolland]

54 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

I'm starting to watch what happens with Flo as the storm gets caught up in the westerlies and we get the moisture next Tuesday.  I hope the swath of rain is right up here in Central New England.  Still big rainfall deficit since April for me.  A nice 2-4" would be great.   Not just rain, but a wet, wet rain.

You’re NNE 

[Baroclinic Zone]

ferocious

 

[#NoPoles]

13 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

ferocious

 

I thoroughly enjoyed this...this is goong around facebook. Poor mike siedel

[wxeyeNH]

14 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

ferocious

 

I just love this.  Everything is over hype and breaking news.  Wonder if the producers asked him before hand to perfect his sway.

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

ferocious

 

That's unfortunate, haha... looks like a jacked up weenie and then two normal dudes walk by like it's just a downpour.

[CT Rain]

11 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

2nd highest in their history. Ryan and Ekster nude on the beach right now.

Pretty much. That eyewall was incredible. We never actually got into the eye... I think I missed it by a mile. We went from western eyewall to northern eyewall.

Damage reminded me of Bob kind of stuff. The trees in ILM (just like the Cape) can take a beating. We actullu didn’t lose power until we were gusting around 80! 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

14 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Just please don’t be that met that is live who looks like they can barely stand...in 40mph winds.

 

1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

ferocious

 

 

[weatherwiz]

5 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

It's possible. It's also possible that undergoing multiple ERCs in rapid succession stalled strengthening.

But tropical meteorology is funny like that. Most mets take one course (if at all) and then every 2-10+ years depending on where you work kind of fly by the seat of their pants with knowledge.

I took tropical at Hawai'i-Manoa () but our professor (Schroeder who collaborated with some of the original Air Force guys that wrote the book on tropical) didn't even touch tropical cyclones. His point was valid, that tropical cyclones are such a small percentage of the day to day weather in the tropics, he needed to teach us the foundational stuff first. So I never had a course that covered tropical cyclones at all. I've had to learn it on the fly. 

Tropical is very challenging...especially with regards to forecasting intensity. When Lane was going on and I was doing briefings every day in the public advisories it would state weakening would occur within 24-hours and it kept strengthening to a 5 lol. That's not a knock on the CPHC...just using that example. Our knowledge of the processes involved within tropical systems is still on the limited side. For now we just rely heavily on models and sometimes I think folks either disregard, don't understand, or don't realize the biases the models have. With tropical systems there is just so much latent heat and convection its easy to see how intensity can be mishandled. Plus (and I see this at school alot and social media) all the focus gets put into SLP maps and what the GFS shows for SLP at 192 hours out...there is so much more to it than that. 

There was something else I was thinking about with regards to that shear which seemed to develop out of nowhere...could that have been due to a strengthening pressure gradient between Florence and the amplifying ridge to the north? 

[OceanStWx]

12 hours ago, powderfreak said:

That's unfortunate, haha... looks like a jacked up weenie and then two normal dudes walk by like it's just a downpour.

I mean it looks bad, and will feed the public perception that this forecast was all hype, but I will defend this situation. Seidel was likely in the shadow of a building with wind whipping around the corner (probably trying to stage a shot to show a little more wind than ambient), and those two guys were walking with the wind and not trying to stand still. 

I mean obs from the area were all gusting over 50 knots at times, so it's not like conditions were made up.

[OceanStWx]

12 hours ago, CT Rain said:

Pretty much. That eyewall was incredible. We never actually got into the eye... I think I missed it by a mile. We went from western eyewall to northern eyewall.

Damage reminded me of Bob kind of stuff. The trees in ILM (just like the Cape) can take a beating. We actullu didn’t lose power until we were gusting around 80! 

X was saying that the power poles were all toppled, but the trees actually stood up quite well.

[OceanStWx]

10 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Tropical is very challenging...especially with regards to forecasting intensity. When Lane was going on and I was doing briefings every day in the public advisories it would state weakening would occur within 24-hours and it kept strengthening to a 5 lol. That's not a knock on the CPHC...just using that example. Our knowledge of the processes involved within tropical systems is still on the limited side. For now we just rely heavily on models and sometimes I think folks either disregard, don't understand, or don't realize the biases the models have. With tropical systems there is just so much latent heat and convection its easy to see how intensity can be mishandled. Plus (and I see this at school alot and social media) all the focus gets put into SLP maps and what the GFS shows for SLP at 192 hours out...there is so much more to it than that. 

There was something else I was thinking about with regards to that shear which seemed to develop out of nowhere...could that have been due to a strengthening pressure gradient between Florence and the amplifying ridge to the north? 

In general we suck at intensity, models included. The two major global models have serious biases (Euro good pressure/poor wind speeds, GFS terrible pressure/good wind speeds). 

As for the shear, it's possible. But there are a whole host of reason that nearing land is bad for strengthening. You start entraining dry air off the land, you add friction and slow winds speeds which reduces convergence, etc.

[CT Rain]

58 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

X was saying that the power poles were all toppled, but the trees actually stood up quite well.

Yeah I noticed that as well. Trees were OK but gas station canopies and power poles were all over the place.

The number of transformers we saw blow was pretty wild. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Indirectly related to the present discussion...

My biggest concern with this Florence handling has been the Media's portrayal. 

The cinema they produce is staggering ... I mean, the 'calculated' adjective rotations they ply to 'jolt' the masses into following along ...turns these sort of specters into cash-cows for them. Call it 'cry wolf' phenomenon... it just gets saturating to the point of being jaded by them. 'Oh, right - 'nother one of those.'

I hate that...

However (ironically) if those uncertainties in intensities (and however much that also pertains to track guidance... et al) are as enigmatic (which may be too strong of a word in its own rite) as y'all are elaborating... I guess the bias on the 'over-sell' side is probably got a hidden blessing to it.  Like, if society and media et al wait around to clear up uncertainties, it would be too late in most cases; then, ...we are talking about the difference between death and perhaps mere inconvenience for having gone through a prep course proven less than necessary -

Therein is a deeper rub, too - that 'unnecessary'   - because, it is necessary until it is proven not, is too often forgotten when peering back at the end result - which of course is less than entirely fair. 

In any case, getting folks to board up windows and chain their eaves, pick up lose lawn flotsam ...generally secure property and or evacuate, I almost wonder if that should just be built into a region's sort of prerequisite requirement for living there - in an ideal world, I'm sure that people that live from Long Island, NY to Brownsville, TX within some 50 nautical miles of the shore, would just accept that every five to ten years of climo they're taking a few days off from normal life whether they want to or not, and just roll with that. 

Until such time as those uncertainties become less guiding -