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Hurricane Florence


TalcottWx

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4 hours ago, sbos_wx said:

Yeah, anyone downplaying it just doesn't have a grasp on the severity of this storm.

The problem is the "playing" part of the word, because it goes in both directions... 

Folks from all levels of [supposed] sophistication, ...be it that word smithy yolk at the end of the block on some Internet rant, or the mass-media enterprise at large that's long lost anything resembling the Journalistic Integrity set forth by the forefathers/virtues of news... they all engage in an up and/or down spinning.

The whole lot of it all does a tremendous disservice to longer term 'believability'...when (not if) the time comes that the actual characteristic of whatever, really needs to be believed.  

There's another particularly egregious circumstances/reality we've arrive upon as a human society ...where it's been exposed ... gullibility is an epidemic - seriously. There really is unbalanced dearth in thoughtful objective consumption of information that permeates all, compared to the amount of information that is available.  That's dangerous. Society(s) may or may not have always been that way - we are talking about the lowest common denominator, to which ... hate to say, usually comes with sagacious wit as a premium to put it nicely.  But the internet and so many random walks of life now given a podium to sound off... it's pretty revealing what the base-line is.  e-gads.. But I digress..  

If that were all not enough ... probably related to all that on some level or another, some people don't act upon the exposure to threats until they are shock-jocked into doing so... Which unfortunately requires that same wheel of 10 C adjectives to get them to respond.  Oy ...can't win huh

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53 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The problem is the "playing" part of the word, because it goes in both directions... 

Folks from all levels of [supposed] sophistication, ...be it that word smithy yolk at the end of the block on some Internet rant, or the mass-media enterprise at large that's long lost anything resembling the Journalistic Integrity set forth by the forefathers/virtues of news... they all engage in an up and/or down spinning.

The whole lot of it all does a tremendous disservice to longer term 'believability'...when (not if) the time comes that the actual characteristic of whatever, really needs to be believed.  

There's another particularly egregious circumstances/reality we've arrive upon as a human society ...where it's been exposed ... gullibility is an epidemic - seriously. There really is unbalanced dearth in thoughtful objective consumption of information that permeates all, compared to the amount of information that is available.  That's dangerous. Society(s) may or may not have always been that way - we are talking about the lowest common denominator, to which ... hate to say, usually comes with sagacious wit as a premium to put it nicely.  But the internet and so many random walks of life now given a podium to sound off... it's pretty revealing what the base-line is.  e-gads.. But I digress..  

If that were all not enough ... probably related to all that on some level or another, some people don't act upon the exposure to threats until they are shock-jocked into doing so... Which unfortunately requires that same wheel of 10 C adjectives to get them to respond.  Oy ...can't win huh

shrooms

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Whatevs, I am pretty certain that my mom's car that is sitting in a parking lot about 5 miles inland from Cape fear is never going to be driven again. I hope they have a place to go back to, luckily they are on the third floor of their condo building. The water has been the issue with the stall and dump of 20+" of rain on top of the storm surge, and that doesnt appear to have improved at all.

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12 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Whatevs, I am pretty certain that my mom's car that is sitting in a parking lot about 5 miles inland from Cape fear is never going to be driven again. I hope they have a place to go back to, luckily they are on the third floor of their condo building. The water has been the issue with the stall and dump of 20+" of rain on top of the storm surge, and that doesnt appear to have improved at all.

  There are going to be a lot of bunk cars on the used market in a few weeks and there are going to be a lot of stray dogs up for adoption.   My younger rescue is a hurricane Harvey refugee. We don't really have space for a third rescue or I'd go for it. 

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1 hour ago, weathafella said:

Why does everyone get mad when someone states the obvious-it looks like dog dung va 2 days ago.  That’s fact.  Doesn’t mean it isn’t dangerous though.

It's endemic to tropical threads and always has been.

Who the hell knows why ...but for some odd reason, people have short fuses and knee jerk to vitriol on pettiness as subtle as giga motions in a TC track monitoring it seems -

 

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So prelim track verification is coming in now, and the winner is...

the GFS. :o

It had the lowest MAE each of days 1 through 5 for the life of Florence. The Ukie was a close second, but had the added bonus of never biting on the breakdown on the ridge and north turn early on. The Euro suffered mainly from a left of track bias early on (though still recurved). 

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1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

So prelim track verification is coming in now, and the winner is...

the GFS. :o

It had the lowest MAE each of days 1 through 5 for the life of Florence. The Ukie was a close second, but had the added bonus of never biting on the breakdown on the ridge and north turn early on. The Euro suffered mainly from a left of track bias early on (though still recurved). 

I wish they would run those stats over the last week, because the GFS has some Bizzarre solutions east of the Outer Banks.

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10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I wish they would run those stats over the last week, because the GFS has some Bizzarre solutions east of the Outer Banks.

I know.

I'm also curious how they get the FV3 to not over-intensify TCs like the GFS does (especially when slow or stalled). They are both uncoupled to the ocean (don't upwell cooler water), but the FV3 doesn't have the same deepening bias. It almost would seem like they have a "brake" on the TCs, which doesn't seem like something you want for truly intense storms.

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