Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,589
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Hurricane Florence

TalcottWx

By TalcottWx,
in New England

Recommended Posts

wxsniss

wxsniss

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, #NoPoles said:

Well she's clearly falling apart...i wish they would.go over why...technically it is traversing over warm water...but the sw quadrant has always struggled...is it sheer, dry air, both? I wish they would talk about structure and environment...there must be some time to talk about that stuff...instead of just using the same graphics and rotating through a list of catastrophic adjectives.

 

Agree.

Have been watching this peripherally, haven't posted at all. It was obvious the mechanics were never the same after that first ERC, and the ragged / dry southwest quadrant has been a visible issue ever since. Echoing Ray and others the past 48 hours, you can sense when these systems are "infected" with disrupted mechanics that they just can't shake out, regardless of favorable extrinsic features. Maybe modeling is good at reading large extrinsic synoptic features (shear, steering, water temps, etc) but is not as good at recognizing these broken intrinsic features? Intensity forecasts from just 24-48 hours ago will have been way off. Obviously still anticipating significant storm surge and flooding impacts.

But yeah would be nice if there was a little more thoughtful analysis of what's going on, and not the stupefied repetitive track maps, Cat # graphics, and histrionics. TWC wants this cash cow bad.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Replies 587
  • Created
  • Last Reply
#NoPoles

#NoPoles

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

 

Agree.

Have been watching this peripherally, haven't posted at all. It was obvious the mechanics were never the same after that first ERC, and the ragged / dry southwest quadrant has been a visible issue ever since. Echoing Ray and others the past 48 hours, you can sense when these systems are "infected" with disrupted mechanics that they just can't shake out, regardless of favorable extrinsic features. Maybe modeling is good at reading large extrinsic synoptic features (shear, steering, water temps, etc) but is not as good at recognizing these broken intrinsic features? Intensity forecasts from just 24-48 hours ago will have been way off. Obviously still anticipating significant storm surge and flooding impacts.

But yeah would be nice if there was a little more thoughtful analysis of what's going on, and not the stupefied repetitive track maps, Cat # graphics, and histrionics. TWC wants this cash cow bad.

I like to use spaghettimodels.com 

He has everything you want to look at on one page. I just went to the shear products and there is something that is so straight forward, it has Florence in an area not conducive for tropical systems...the hype on every weather event is so outrageously unwarranted, it makes me want to stay away from all social media and tv

Link to comment
Share on other sites
JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted
45 minutes ago, #NoPoles said:

I like to use spaghettimodels.com 

He has everything you want to look at on one page. I just went to the shear products and there is something that is so straight forward, it has Florence in an area not conducive for tropical systems...the hype on every weather event is so outrageously unwarranted, it makes me want to stay away from all social media and tv

Yeah, Mike's site is great. A bit of shear right now for sure, looks like it could be a bit more favorable where it wants to stall though. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

She looks lousy. Struggle for a 2, but large circulation.

 Looking a little better than it did a few hours ago though.   I was reading somewhere else so that the ULL over Florida created shear that hindered Florence yesterday.  Was that something that models were not picking up on? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

 Looking a little better than it did a few hours ago though.   I was reading somewhere else so that the ULL over Florida created shear that hindered Florence yesterday.  Was that something that models were not picking up on? 

Shear and dry air has been a bit under-modeled. Although SHIPS RH did show it, but as is usually the case, models were to intensity happy when that happens.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
adk

adk

Posted
Posted

I think all the focus on the strength at LF misses the point. With a stalled forward speed the amount of rainfall on the Piedmont of NC - where there are actual hills that funnel water - is going to be catastrophic.  I was just in Japan where a weak tripical system offshore earlier this summer killed 200+ people from rainfall and flash flooding.  If this thing makes 10+ of rain in central NC lots and lots of terrible things will happen.  Way overshadowing the impacts on the coast. That's not changing regardless of the max intensity at LF.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites
CapturedNature

CapturedNature

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 That’s probably generous. The satellite presentation is what it is. It also has a pretty bad core.

Even if it's a minimum category 1 storm, I wouldn't call it lousy.  Heck, look at what Sandy did as a Tropical Storm.  I wouldn't call that lousy.  I've been in minimal hurricane winds and it's nothing to sneeze at, particularly if it's going to be for 24 hours and accompanied by flooding rain and everything else.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
TalcottWx

TalcottWx

Posted
  • Author
Posted
21 minutes ago, MetHerb said:

Even if it's a minimum category 1 storm, I wouldn't call it lousy.  Heck, look at what Sandy did as a Tropical Storm.  I wouldn't call that lousy.  I've been in minimal hurricane winds and it's nothing to sneeze at, particularly if it's going to be for 24 hours and accompanied by flooding rain and everything else.

Yeah, anyone downplaying it just doesn't have a grasp on the severity of this storm.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
35 minutes ago, MetHerb said:

Even if it's a minimum category 1 storm, I wouldn't call it lousy.  Heck, look at what Sandy did as a Tropical Storm.  I wouldn't call that lousy.  I've been in minimal hurricane winds and it's nothing to sneeze at, particularly if it's going to be for 24 hours and accompanied by flooding rain and everything else.

I said the satellite presentation was lousy. Let’s not overhype something.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Tanith

Tanith

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

83 foot seas measured, recon finding 60 knot east winds way beyond the center, 50 foot seas forecasted, epic surge disaster incoming, think Bolivar Peninsula. Listen to the wind in this live video from Frying Pan shoals

 

That must be one strong flagpole, lol. Those waves are amazing!

Link to comment
Share on other sites
dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The issue will be surge and rain. That’s probably what should be the focus. But the surge albeit not good, is a better case scenario than the 130kts prior to landfall that was forecasted a few days ago. Bigger issue is surge spread out many miles on top of freshwater issues.

Tremendously wet

Link to comment
Share on other sites
tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted
17 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

I am 61 and remember it well. Had 3 kids living on the beach in Weekapaug,  evacuated,  my motorcycle a 650 E Kawasaki was sand blasted. All the trees turned brown on the south sides due to salt with zeeo rain. Lost a bunch of trees

I was 6 months shy of my 40th when Gloria went through, and was then commuting weekly between Fort Kent and Augusta.  Governor Brennan closed the state offices at noon that Friday, giving me a head start to keep in front of the storm, which was a 1"+ garden variety fall storm in N. Maine.  Though S. Maine had less rain, generally in the 0.5" vicinity, they had lots more wind.  The following Monday I called a place 20 miles east of Augusta about a Jotul 618 woodstove they had for sale, and it was nearly 2 weeks before they responded, as power outages and damage had them living elsewhere immediately post-'cane.  (We enjoyed heat from that stove for our 13 years in Gardiner.)

Link to comment
Share on other sites
tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, adk said:

I think all the focus on the strength at LF misses the point. With a stalled forward speed the amount of rainfall on the Piedmont of NC - where there are actual hills that funnel water - is going to be catastrophic.  I was just in Japan where a weak tripical system offshore earlier this summer killed 200+ people from rainfall and flash flooding.  If this thing makes 10+ of rain in central NC lots and lots of terrible things will happen.  Way overshadowing the impacts on the coast. That's not changing regardless of the max intensity at LF.  

The Carolina piedmont is a billiard table compared to the mountains in Japan.  That said, I recall floodwaters from Floyd creating an inland lake that seemed to take forever to drain off, so 10-20" in that part of the Carolinas could resemble that, or Harvey.  (And if the RA++ holds together until the remnants reach the Apps, watch out.) 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Graupel Flux

Graupel Flux

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

 Then there is always the 20+ hours of tornado threats.

Speaking of:

  

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1131 AM EDT THU SEP 13 2018

NCC013-137-131545-
/O.CON.KMHX.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-180913T1545Z/
Beaufort NC-Pamlico NC-
1131 AM EDT THU SEP 13 2018

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 AM EDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN BEAUFORT AND CENTRAL PAMLICO COUNTIES...

At 1131 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Lowland, or 25 miles southeast of River Road, moving
southwest at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is
         likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
  Royal and Maribel around 1140 AM EDT.
  Grantsboro around 1145 AM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Aurora, Stonewall, Mesic, Alliance, Bayboro, Vandemere and Bridgeton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

If a tornado or other severe weather is spotted, call the National
Weather Service office in Newport at 1-800-889-
6889. This act may save lives of others in the path of dangerous
weather.

&&

LAT...LON 3513 7703 3507 7697 3506 7697 3506 7696
      3511 7694 3515 7699 3525 7690 3532 7699
      3542 7653 3539 7652 3542 7651 3543 7652
      3543 7651 3537 7647 3543 7646 3542 7645
      3527 7638 3504 7699
TIME...MOT...LOC 1531Z 065DEG 34KT 3528 7664

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...0.00IN
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...