Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,589
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Hurricane Florence

TalcottWx

By TalcottWx,
in New England

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 587
  • Created
  • Last Reply
TalcottWx

TalcottWx

Posted
  • Author
Posted
6 hours ago, Spaizzo said:

If you’re looking for close to OBX Elizabeth City is just inland closer to the Northern Banks, has access to the banks and it’s one of the few areas with hotels. It still might be too close to the getting stuck part tho as that whole stretch tends to be flood prone. 

OBX is already experiencing some over washing in parts at high tide. They tend to flood after a good hard rain in many parts due to horrid drainage.  Their ground is saturated from some heavier than normal rains the last 2 months. This isn’t looking good for them if the track remains.

It’s an impressive area for hurricane or storm coverage. The sound side tends to get the water “sucked” out to where it’s near puddles and then it rushes back in.

Be safe!!! 

Good spot. I know that area well. Aunt lives there. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Cape Fear is ground zero 

My parents have a condo in Bolivia NC. Glad I told them to evacuate 2 days ago. Euro locked in, the GFS always does this. All the upgrades the ECMWF has been making that "make it worse" for winter weenies have actually been made in order to improve forecasting in the tropics.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
TalcottWx

TalcottWx

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Aunt lived in Elizabeth City for years. She is now in Ormond Beach FL permanently. 

She has two kids. One in Cary NC, SW of Raleigh. Another is in Greenville. 

The kid in Cary is riding out the storm in her third story apartment. Wind won't be as much of a worry there. Flooding will be. But it's a populated area. Not sure what the better option would be.

The kid in Greenville has to evacuate. It's definitely going to be bad in that area for wind in addition to rain. I suggested Richmond.

The idiot father is bringing them west to the Appalachians were rainfall totals may be enhanced. I tried to explain but my family doesn't understand.

I hope they are heading really far west into those mountains...

Link to comment
Share on other sites
HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

Posted
Posted

There is historical precedent for major hurricanes not landfalling N of the Gulf Coast/Florida region and I can't help but feel with the indicated stall that this might LF as no more than a Cat 2.  That is not to say it won't be quite destructive and really suck for those in it's path.  I just feel like if we get the weakening and then rainfall amounts aren't as robust as currently modeled, you will get the inevitable disappointed weenies in the Tropical thread who were calling for apocalypse.   

Ray should make a fraud 5 list for tropical systems. lol.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Whineminster

Whineminster

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

There is historical precedent for major hurricanes not landfalling N of the Gulf Coast/Florida region and I can't help but feel with the indicated stall that this might LF as no more than a Cat 2.  That is not to say it won't be quite destructive and really suck for those in it's path.  I just feel like if we get the weakening and then rainfall amounts aren't as robust as currently modeled, you will get the inevitable disappointed weenies in the Tropical thread who were calling for apocalypse.   

Ray should make a fraud 5 list for tropical systems. lol.

yeah the storms that come ashore N of FL area are really never anything too crazy like a Haiyan or Maria. Ya lots of rain and some moderate storm surge, but i don't think this will be like Harvey. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted
34 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

yeah the storms that come ashore N of FL area are really never anything too crazy like a Haiyan or Maria. Ya lots of rain and some moderate storm surge, but i don't think this will be like Harvey. 

Well to be fair most of Harvey’s damage was rainfall.  Houston which suffered the brunt is about 50 miles inland.   The current prog suggests a rainfall catastrophe is possible.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Well to be fair most of Harvey’s damage was rainfall.  Houston which suffered the brunt is about 50 miles inland.   The current prog suggests a rainfall catastrophe is possible.

Add this in Jerry, whinemeister needs to understand. Storm surge from a long lasting Cat 4/5 is unreal, see Katrina, winds won't matter for that anyways. I.K.E. (kinetic energy) is well above Hurricane IKE but below Katrina but expect catastrophic surge. Heck in Hurricane Hazel a fast moving 4, surge was 15 feet and even 10-11 feet in Myrtle Beach well south of LF. Peeps need to stop and think

Link to comment
Share on other sites
weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted
40 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Add this in Jerry, whinemeister needs to understand. Storm surge from a long lasting Cat 4/5 is unreal, see Katrina, winds won't matter for that anyways. I.K.E. (kinetic energy) is well above Hurricane IKE but below Katrina but expect catastrophic surge. Heck in Hurricane Hazel a fast moving 4, surge was 15 feet and even 10-11 feet in Myrtle Beach well south of LF. Peeps need to stop and think

There have been plenty of bad tropical systems in NC over the years bit I guess since the past few years have been quiet some think it rarer than it is.   We should remind everyone that by the time Katrina made landfall it was cat 1/2.   

Link to comment
Share on other sites
wxeyeNH

wxeyeNH

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

There have been plenty of bad tropical systems in NC over the years bit I guess since the past few years have been quiet some think it rarer than it is.   We should remind everyone that by the time Katrina made landfall it was cat 1/2.   

A very good friend of mine, her husband and 2 dogs moved to Mrytle Beach last year.  About 3 or 4 miles inland.  New modest home.  No trees.  They bought a generator last winter when they got an inch or snow and lost power.  They have plenty of gas for it.  They are asking me for advice.  Do they travel hundreds of miles trying to find a hotel or ride it out?  She knows Im a weather geek and asked me to call this eve after looking at the latest models.   My thinking is that if the eyewall comes ashore or partially ashore 50 miles north in the Wilmington area they would at okay at first.  West offshore wind.  By the time the storm drifts SW it would be downgraded somewhat.  So they would definitely loose power but be okay that far inland from major structural damage.  A new home built to code could handle 80-85mph gusts. If I had a new home that far inland I would hesitate to just pack up and leave not knowing when I could return.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites
HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, weathafella said:

There have been plenty of bad tropical systems in NC over the years bit I guess since the past few years have been quiet some think it rarer than it is.   We should remind everyone that by the time Katrina made landfall it was cat 1/2.   

 There is  no denying that the Carolinas have experienced some bad Tropical systems.   My original post that, whineminster responded to, was referring to the fact that historical precedent indicates anything N of Fl or the Gulf Coast is unlikely to landfall above Cat 2.

Maybe Florence becomes the anomaly to that but we wait and see. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, wxeyeNH said:

A very good friend of mine, her husband and 2 dogs moved to Mrytle Beach last year.  About 3 or 4 miles inland.  New modest home.  No trees.  They bought a generator last winter when they got an inch or snow and lost power.  They have plenty of gas for it.  They are asking me for advice.  Do they travel hundreds of miles trying to find a hotel or ride it out?  She knows Im a weather geek and asked me to call this eve after looking at the latest models.   My thinking is that if the eyewall comes ashore or partially ashore 50 miles north in the Wilmington area they would at okay at first.  West offshore wind.  By the time the storm drifts SW it would be downgraded somewhat.  So they would definitely loose power but be okay that far inland from major structural damage.  A new home built to code could handle 80-85mph gusts. If I had a new home that far inland I would hesitate to just pack up and leave not knowing when I could return.  

What elevation? What roads flood out, can they self survive for a week? Those are questions I would think about that close to the shore and in SC which receives all of NCs runoff

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...