TalcottWx Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 I've been MIA for summer, Florence has awakened me. I imagine this one is already a week into discussion. But lord almighty, that's a eyebrow raising run of recent models. Does the machine finally break through our long climatological hurricane drought? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 00z GFS is lulz... 3 days of Florence chilling off SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 6, 2018 Author Share Posted September 6, 2018 28 minutes ago, yoda said: 00z GFS is lulz... 3 days of Florence chilling off SNE Reading a lot of posts to pump the brakes in various places. It's just really concerning to see steering track like that. And heights have trended stronger. It's concerning from Carolina to Maine. Worrysome for Bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 Euro was a bad run for nc/va/md coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 Suspect ridging may ultimately work against us up here, but mid Atlantic region could definitely have reason for concern. Of course nothing is set at this distant juncture, so we stock up on IPA and watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 More eps/ens hits up here on 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 Congrats NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 can't wait for my 2" of rain and 25mph winds.. maybe we don't even get rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 I am supposed to be going to Block Island for a wedding from Thursday to Sunday next week. That could be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, klw said: I am supposed to be going to Block Island for a wedding from Thursday to Sunday next week. That could be interesting. that sounds like more fun!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 1 minute ago, Bostonseminole said: that sounds like more fun!! I hope the wedding is fun and the weather dull. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 55 minutes ago, klw said: I am supposed to be going to Block Island for a wedding from Thursday to Sunday next week. That could be interesting. Maybe it'll look something like this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 6, 2018 Author Share Posted September 6, 2018 To me, this is either a stall and recurve off mid atlantic with some noreaster like effects, or a swing anywhere from NJ to ME. Don't see the direct shot west as plausible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 Big hit for southern New England on the 12zGFS, cat 2 or 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, hurricaneman said: Big hit for southern New England on the 12zGFS, cat 2 or 3 Yeah that's your classic weenie run right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 can we merge the threads or we plan to keep 2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 12z gfs is a beauty lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 GFS looks like it does a slow roll up the coast from ACY to the Cape with no actual landfall. Then an extremely anomalous change in course towards the south where it eventually starts intensifying again, way out in fantasy range for this whole scenario though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 It’s a Fuji on the GFS. ULL in the south interacts. Slingshots it up Coast from ACY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 Lol at that gfs run. It’s like Flo can’t break through the ridge so she backs up, puffs her chest and gives it another go. Ok sure.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 6, 2018 Author Share Posted September 6, 2018 23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s a Fuji on the GFS. ULL in the south interacts. Slingshots it up Coast from ACY With the ridge as currently forecasted, that seems like most plausible track. No reason to cause panic or sound alarms yet. It's going to track close off the coast of the US, it could still take a track that recurves it after a stall near the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 gfs loves to barrel TS into sprawing highs so I’ll go with a euro track into NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 GFS 926 100 miles east of the DelMarVa: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=06L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2018090612&fh=162 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 6 minutes ago, MarkO said: GFS 926 100 miles east of the DelMarVa: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=06L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2018090612&fh=162 This should have been more west than what it showed due to a stronger ridge in the Atlantic than the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 Yeah, but the GFS is pretty useless in the tropics. Pretty sure it still had Irma hitting NC when all the other models were honing in on southern Florida. Probably can add 30mb to whatever pressure it spits out too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 6, 2018 Author Share Posted September 6, 2018 Mid and long range, use the ensembles. Best advice anyone can give you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 Some big hits on the 18z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 Florence is exhibiting the same separate blob of convection off its eastern flank that Matthew had in the Caribbean. Is that some artifact of the high shear? I recall Matthew was in a sheared environment as well (and still made cat 5). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 Look at the rocket fuel ahead. When shear relaxes later tomorrow and weekend we looking at a beast bearing down on the EC of the US Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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