Hurricane Florence Catch all Thread

[uncle W]

nothing is written in stone yet but it does look like a Sandy/Ages combination headed for Pennsylvania...a recurve can happen at the last minute...TWT...

back in 1958 south Carolina dodged a bullet with this storm...

[qg_omega]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I think there was a storm in the early 1900s that took a track very similar to Sandy and went right into the Atlantic City area- it might have been that 1903 one that Don mentioned.

I dont think Sandy was a worst case scenario for us though, I mean it was about 80% of the way there and the timing with the high tides was definitely worst case for the south shore, but if it had tracked about 50 miles further north before curving into the coast that would have been worst case.

 

A stronger version of the 1893 hurricane would have been a worse storm for us specifically.  I also wonder about that Norfolk and Long Island hurricane, that one was unusually strong for a long range coastal hugger, must have been an amazing storm.

 

 

 

Sandy was worst case from Central NJ shore to the Nassau/Suffolk border, any further north would have pushed that zone to the Northeast

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

Sandy was worst case from Central NJ shore to the Nassau/Suffolk border, any further north would have pushed that zone to the Northeast

Definitely not a worst case scenario. That would be a purely tropical cyclone with intact core moving rapidly NW out of the Gulf Stream with a landfall in Monmouth County. That would put NYC in the NE eyewall.  I think the upper end of what’s possible is about 130mph. A 20’ surge into Ny harbor and major wind damage.  Plus be the worlds first 1 trillion dollar disaster. 

[qg_omega]

8 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Definitely not a worst case scenario. That would be a purely tropical cyclone with intact core moving rapidly NW out of the Gulf Stream with a landfall in Monmouth County. That would put NYC in the NE eyewall.  I think the upper end of what’s possible is about 130mph. A 20’ surge into Ny harbor and major wind damage.  Plus be the worlds first 1 trillion dollar disaster. 

Nope, completely disagree.  Our biggest storms are hybrid, pure tropical is garbage up here.  Sandy storm surge was highest ever.  1938 was not pure tropical, pure tropical would not be moving 40+, only can get captured and sling for that to happen, that's Sandy and it's position was worst case for us. /End

[LIWeatherGuy29]

1821 Norfolk/Long Island hurricane was probably close to the 1938 hurricane in strength when it hit NYC. It caused a lot of damage there, read the newspapers for that storm. It was estimated to have been a category 3 over NYC and Category 4 over Southern NJ. That would be the worst case scenario for Long Island/NYC and worse than Sandy.

[BxEngine]

The irony lol

[Rjay]

Agree with LBSF

[Rjay]

8 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

The irony lol

Sandy is going to be ots

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

39 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Nope, completely disagree.  Our biggest storms are hybrid, pure tropical is garbage up here.  Sandy storm surge was highest ever.  1938 was not pure tropical, pure tropical would not be moving 40+, only can get captured and sling for that to happen, that's Sandy and it's position was worst case for us. /End

Garbage? Take a look at carol 54 then. Purely tropical cat 3 at our latitude which in some cases caused more damage then 38. 

[Cfa]

I remember reading an article/study which mentioned that the theoretical max for the NYC metro is a Cat 4. That or a high end Cat 3 would be our worst case scenario.

Sandy wasn’t a joke, far from it, but it was a storm surge storm more than anything else. Sandy’s winds, while severe, were manageable. Rainfall wasn’t anything special with it either.

[Hailstorm]

2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Definitely not a worst case scenario. That would be a purely tropical cyclone with intact core moving rapidly NW out of the Gulf Stream with a landfall in Monmouth County. That would put NYC in the NE eyewall.  I think the upper end of what’s possible is about 130mph. A 20’ surge into Ny harbor and major wind damage.  Plus be the worlds first 1 trillion dollar disaster. 

I definitely agree with this. According to the SLOSH models I have just run, parts of Brooklyn and Queens could get slammed with up to a 32-foot storm tide in a Cat. 4, assuming the impact coincides with high tide. Sandy, by comparison, "only" produced a storm tide of 11 feet in Manhattan. This would make Sandy appear to be "child's play" if that scenario came into fruition; as the surge would penetrate at least 3 miles further inland along the south-facing shorelines of Brooklyn, Queens and Long Island.

 

[jm1220]

47 minutes ago, Cfa said:

I remember reading an article/study which mentioned that the theoretical max for the NYC metro is a Cat 4. That or a high end Cat 3 would be our worst case scenario.

Sandy wasn’t a joke, far from it, but it was a storm surge storm more than anything else. Sandy’s winds, while severe, were manageable. Rainfall wasn’t anything special with it either.

Sandy was a somewhat more tropical and larger/much stronger version of the Perfect Storm 1991 (Perfect Storm was 30mb less deep). The mid latitude strong trough phasing into it added considerable energy to it and kept it from weakening over colder water. 

I agree that a cat 3 would be more devastating, but it would be in a smaller area. Sandy pressure-wise was about cat 3 and was a massive sized storm that piled up tremendous water. The NW path also took that surge right into NY Harbor. A paralleling the coast track would be the worst. Irene could've been horrendous had it not been eaten up by dry air as it came into NC and weakening rapidly. Better atmospheric conditions would've had it come into NC as a strong cat 3 and maybe up here as a cat 2 still. Same for Gloria. 

[SnoSki14]

Worst case scenario would be a Sandy track with a Cat 3-4 though LF would have to be further north than S NJ. 

Odds of that are probably 1 in a million.

[qg_omega]

1 hour ago, Hailstorm said:

I definitely agree with this. According to the SLOSH models I have just run, parts of Brooklyn and Queens could get slammed with up to a 32-foot storm tide in a Cat. 4, assuming the impact coincides with high tide. Sandy, by comparison, "only" produced a storm tide of 11 feet in Manhattan. This would make Sandy appear to be "child's play" if that scenario came into fruition; as the surge would penetrate at least 3 miles further inland along the south-facing shorelines of Brooklyn, Queens and Long Island.

 

Getting a cat 4 coming in from the SE is almost impossible, pressure wise sandy was the strongest storm ever to hit our area.  The size of the surge was also historic in terms of coastline impacted.  Winds also remained on shore after landfall given it's landfall location and direction. All very unusual and historic

[Rtd208]

 

[Rtd208]

 

[Santa Claus]

I can't believe this thing could stall out right over the Carolinas.  This is going to be a massive disaster if that happens.

[NycStormChaser]

10 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

I can't believe this thing could stall out right over the Carolinas.  This is going to be a massive disaster if that happens.

We are heading down Tuesday morning. Probably to the Wilmington area. 

[Rtd208]

 

[Rtd208]

Cricket..cricket..cricket.

[Rtd208]

New Video out on Florence by DT (WxRisk).

https://youtu.be/LAchCp4HcPo

[Rtd208]

Have to love some of the comments.

 

[doncat]

Euro very consistent with its more southern track...other models back to further north landfall. Cmc, gfs eventually bring some remnant rains up this way while the Euro drives it back sse  after a few days.

[NJwx85]

1 hour ago, csnavywx said:

A couple of interesting details on these 00/06z runs from last night. First is the continued trend of a stronger ridge over the Northeast-Quebec-Nova Scotia region before and during landfall. This has been going on for the better part of 48 hours and has gotten to the point that the amplification has now resulted in a significant change downstream to the trough that crests the ridge around tau 48-72. It continues to get more amplified and starts to erode the WAR more quickly as Florence approaches. This is what made the UK jump northeast (as well as the rest of the guidance that moved NE). If the trend continues, we could see a track shift. It's interesting that the EC shows more erosion of the WAR in the last run, but moved further southwest (as most of the weakening was on the north side of the ridge on that run).

Something to watch. It may or may not end up mattering in the end, but that's the main reason for the track shifts on some of the modeling as of late.

 

[NJwx85]

Decent shot that it eventually at least partially gets captured by the new trough moving though SE Canada next weekend and we end up getting in on some of the rain.

[jm1220]

I’d be hedging on it ticking a little to the right near NC as well given the models being biased a little SW so far and the possible reorientation of the ridge. The Euro has been steadfast though on a landfall on the NC/SC border, which I’d always go with over the GFS. Still a minor chance IMO it doesn’t make landfall and turns right/stalls just offshore. No one wants 30” of rain over a swath of VA/NC so hopefully there can be a shift that can dodge them something of a bullet. 

[NJwx85]

Recon is en route. Should be a cat 3 at 11AM.

[bluewave]

16 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Sandy was a somewhat more tropical and larger/much stronger version of the Perfect Storm 1991 (Perfect Storm was 30mb less deep). The mid latitude strong trough phasing into it added considerable energy to it and kept it from weakening over colder water. 

I agree that a cat 3 would be more devastating, but it would be in a smaller area. Sandy pressure-wise was about cat 3 and was a massive sized storm that piled up tremendous water. The NW path also took that surge right into NY Harbor. A paralleling the coast track would be the worst. Irene could've been horrendous had it not been eaten up by dry air as it came into NC and weakening rapidly. Better atmospheric conditions would've had it come into NC as a strong cat 3 and maybe up here as a cat 2 still. Same for Gloria. 

Sandy and Gloria actually had a similar surge around 8 feet near the outer coast of Long Beach. But Gloria came in near low tide so the actual tide level was about 3-4 feet lower on the beach side. Sandy had a record wide wind field. Combined with the historic track, this ensured that the highest surge would coincide with high tide. I also believe the two high tide cycles involved allowed higher water levels to pile up in the back bays with Sandy.

[weatherpruf]

31 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I’d be hedging on it ticking a little to the right near NC as well given the models being biased a little SW so far and the possible reorientation of the ridge. The Euro has been steadfast though on a landfall on the NC/SC border, which I’d always go with over the GFS. Still a minor chance IMO it doesn’t make landfall and turns right/stalls just offshore. No one wants 30” of rain over a swath of VA/NC so hopefully there can be a shift that can dodge them something of a bullet. 

We can hope. Even so, no matter what it does, these coastal easterly winds are killing the fishing season here. I guess the surfers like it. Gotta be some hazardous undertoe out there.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 hour ago, weatherpruf said:

We can hope. Even so, no matter what it does, these coastal easterly winds are killing the fishing season here. I guess the surfers like it. Gotta be some hazardous undertoe out there.

Surfers do not like onshore gale force winds, the ocean right now is a washing machine. Offshore winds are ideal with calm or very light onshores second. The further north Florence eventually makes it the more influence it will have on turning our winds onshore.

Based on a high end cat 4 heading generally in our direction there will be huge surf here later in the week. Swells of that magnitude lead to washovers that flood beaches and anything near the beach front. They also cause a good amount of erosion. So this storm will definitely be a high impact event for local beaches.