Hurricane Florence Catch all Thread

[bluewave]

It continues to look like the Carolinas area will be the area that Florence hits. Check out how the WAR to the north will be near record levels for this time of year. This ridge is so extreme this year, that Florence will be the first recorded hurricane to reach the U.S. coast from that position.

Updating yesterday's tidbit... as of Friday morning's advisory, 79 named storms have passed within 200 nautical miles of #Florence's position since 1851, and not one has ever come close to the U.S. coast. pic.twitter.com/IZurMUWhXh

4:55 AM - 7 Sep 2018

 

 

 

[Brasiluvsnow]

I posted this in another thread but will ask it here. If Florence does regain her strength and comes in hard at like a Cat 4 or Cat 5 isn't the tendency for storms over the ocean to be steered polewards / North ? 

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

I posted this in another thread but will ask it here. If Florence does regain her strength and comes in hard at like a Cat 4 or Cat 5 isn't the tendency for storms over the ocean to be steered polewards / North ? 

Yes that is usually the case. Models might be overestimating the ridge.

We shall see

[Brasiluvsnow]

17 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Yes that is usually the case. Models might be overestimating the ridge.

We shall see

Thanx 88,,,,,,,,,,I just watched BR from yesterday and I learned something else that I was unaware of. In 50 years there were many Hurricanes that were located exactly where Florence is now an NOT ONE OF THEM hit the coast. Thats a lot of history . The thing is they ALL ,every one of them turned North. Again hard to argue with history,,,,,if I was A betting man I say it turns North but it depends on that damn HIGH steering it no ?

[NyCwEaThErFeEn]

5 hours ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Thanx 88,,,,,,,,,,I just watched BR from yesterday and I learned something else that I was unaware of. In 50 years there were many Hurricanes that were located exactly where Florence is now an NOT ONE OF THEM hit the coast. Thats a lot of history . The thing is they ALL ,every one of them turned North. Again hard to argue with history,,,,,if I was A betting man I say it turns North but it depends on that damn HIGH steering it no ?

Not one model has this hitting us directly but you never know the models suck nowadays. Still a bit of time for this to adjust. I would be worried if I lived in Wilmington North Carolina 

[Orangeburgwx]

EURO is hellbent on a Hugo repeat (need the rain... But damn those winds)

[Brasiluvsnow]

1 hour ago, Orangeburgwx said:

EURO is hellbent on a Hugo repeat (need the rain... But damn those winds)

Orangeburg,,,,not nitpicking and maybe Im wrong but I believe Hugo was more South of where Florence is now and was headed more to the South ( Georgia ) but hooked and hit the Carolinas

[Juliancolton]

2 hours ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Thanx 88,,,,,,,,,,I just watched BR from yesterday and I learned something else that I was unaware of. In 50 years there were many Hurricanes that were located exactly where Florence is now an NOT ONE OF THEM hit the coast. Thats a lot of history . The thing is they ALL ,every one of them turned North. Again hard to argue with history,,,,,if I was A betting man I say it turns North but it depends on that damn HIGH steering it no ?

The oft-cited sample size is 79 against near-infinite possible atmospheric states. Climo has no physical influence on future events, and since we have a clear, widely progged mechanism for steering the system westward, it's almost (if not already) time to completely discard historical analogs as a forecasting tool.

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

The oft-cited sample size is 79 against near-infinite possible atmospheric states. Climo has no physical influence on future events, and since we have a clear, widely progged mechanism for steering the system westward, it's almost (if not already) time to completely discard historical analogs as a forecasting tool.

Past analogs haven't had much relevance to the 2010's extreme patterns.

[Brasiluvsnow]

9 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

The oft-cited sample size is 79 against near-infinite possible atmospheric states. Climo has no physical influence on future events, and since we have a clear, widely progged mechanism for steering the system westward, it's almost (if not already) time to completely discard historical analogs as a forecasting tool.

Julian I respect you and your posts are always informative. I realize that the HIGH to the North of Florence is " appearing " strong and it appears that it will steer Florence due west. That said I don't know how anyone can discount the history ? I know many of you guys deal with the science of all this ( stuff which I am learning but know little about ) but I cannot see how anyone disregards the History ? I also understand that those previous storms did not have something STRONG steering them West but maybe the High here now is overdone ? I think theres still time for much of this to change and absolutes are impossible ,,,,maybe Im wrong thanks again for your reply it is appreciated 

[Orangeburgwx]

7 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Julian I respect you and your posts are always informative. I realize that the HIGH to the North of Florence is " appearing " strong and it appears that it will steer Florence due west. That said I don't know how anyone can discount the history ? I know many of you guys deal with the science of all this ( stuff which I am learning but know little about ) but I cannot see how anyone disregards the History ? I also understand that those previous storms did not have something STRONG steering them West but maybe the High here now is overdone ? I think theres still time for much of this to change and absolutes are impossible ,,,,maybe Im wrong thanks again for your reply it is appreciated 

Since you want to talk about history...

 

 

This is the strongest (or damn well near it) ridge IN HISTORY for this time of year, all those storms in the past have not had this kind of set up, so you are WITNESSING history 

[Brasiluvsnow]

2 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Since you want to talk about history...

 

 

This is the strongest (or damn well near it) ridge IN HISTORY for this time of year, all those storms in the past have not had this kind of set up, so you are WITNESSING history 

 Orangeburg that is what I keep reading and hearing. 

[qg_omega]

We are protected by a 600dm ridge it's directly over the area, if this was displaced to our NE, different story but with the forecasted setup, this is going for South Carolina

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

23 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Julian I respect you and your posts are always informative. I realize that the HIGH to the North of Florence is " appearing " strong and it appears that it will steer Florence due west. That said I don't know how anyone can discount the history ? I know many of you guys deal with the science of all this ( stuff which I am learning but know little about ) but I cannot see how anyone disregards the History ? I also understand that those previous storms did not have something STRONG steering them West but maybe the High here now is overdone ? I think theres still time for much of this to change and absolutes are impossible ,,,,maybe Im wrong thanks again for your reply it is appreciated 

Go through “history” and find another storm that did anything remotely close to sandy. While history has its place consensus is so strong that it has to be discounted. 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Thanx 88,,,,,,,,,,I just watched BR from yesterday and I learned something else that I was unaware of. In 50 years there were many Hurricanes that were located exactly where Florence is now an NOT ONE OF THEM hit the coast. Thats a lot of history . The thing is they ALL ,every one of them turned North. Again hard to argue with history,,,,,if I was A betting man I say it turns North but it depends on that damn HIGH steering it no ?

Historical precedence is ignored at one's own peril - true. 

Climate suggestions, while they do not 'predict' the future, what they can do is describe the final results; moreover, when at necessarily discrete evaluation, circumstances are then identifiable as crucial in the evolution of each given cyclone. 

The problem is, that individuality gets intrinsically obscured by the derivation math. It's musing that they are mutually exclusive.

A fun metaphor perhaps ... it's kinda hard to know exactly what went into a frappe.  We know it was ice cream of course, and perhaps some flavoring ..but what else?  Cream? Malt? ... hm, once the blender turned own, the identity of those individual ingredients got lost.

I always cringe [a little] when folks wield climate points. They are not silver bullet argument stoppers - they should be used as argument modifiers, sure. That may be what is intended, but it 'sounds' a bit like the present tenths are trying to convince.  I love it in Football when the color announcers say x-y-z has never happened when trailing(leading) by a-b-c.  All that means to me is, it simply has not happened yet.

When we peer back in time over say, 50 years..., with an average presentation of 8 cyclones per year, that's 450 case-studies that could have had more or less similar synoptic circumstances that led to each individual evolution. Naturally, we can negate those that don't qualify that comparison.  Why?  For the sake of intuitive perspective ... let's go ahead and assume half were not even in contention as they were not CV-type transits to begin with. They were borne of the other origins entirely and so forth. That drops the viable comparison set to 225 cases... Of those, how many were in a similar, highly unusual total atmospheric situation (as modeled)?  That number becomes exceptionally small.

An afternoon of research could make what we already know is true, clad ... but, relying on the hypothetical for a moment: That could be akin to arguing, since all of two system did not strike the mainland, none ever will.  Hmm.

Or, we could just employ that same old mantra ..which is akin to a very coarse method: throw all 225 reasonably comparable evolutions into a blender, and pour a frappe.   

[Orangeburgwx]

Location: 24.5°N 54.3°W
Moving: W at 7 mph
Min pressure: 995 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph

 

this is heading right for me

 

[Brasiluvsnow]

5 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Go through “history” and find another storm that did anything remotely close to sandy. While history has its place consensus is so strong that it has to be discounted. 

Long Beach I understand and I get it. If the setup is exactly as it is pictured today on Tuesday I say yes this is Historical and will do something no other storm has EVER done. I just think there is still a lot of time and things can still change I do not think for a minute that this is the final solution.

[Brasiluvsnow]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Historical precedence is ignored at one's own peril - true. 

Climate suggestions, while they do not 'predict' the future, what they can do is describe the final results; moreover, when at necessarily discrete evaluation, circumstances are then identifiable as crucial in the evolution of each given cyclone. 

The problem is, that individuality gets obscured by the derivation for the 'type' of climate people often level at one another ... yet, they are mutually exclusive. 

A fun metaphor perhaps ... it's kinda hard to know exactly what went into a frappe.  We know it was ice cream of course, and perhaps some flavoring ..but what else?  Cream? Malt? ... hm, once the blender turned own, the identity of those individual ingredients got lost.

I always cringe [a little] when folks wield climate points. They are not silver bullet argument stoppers - they should be used as argument modifiers, sure. 

But when we peer back in time over say, 50 years..., say, at an average presentation of 8 cyclones per year, that's 450 case-studies that could have had more or less similar synoptic circumstances that led to each individual evolution. Naturally, we can negate those that don't qualify that comparison.  Why?  For the sake of intuitive perspective ... let's go ahead and assume half were not even in contention as they were not CV-type transits to begin with. They were borne of the other origins entirely and so forth. That drops the viable comparison set to 225 cases... Of those, how many were in a similar, highly unusual total atmospheric situation (as modeled)?  That number becomes exceptionally small.

An afternoon of research could make what we already know is true, clad ... but, relying on the hypothetical for a moment: That could be akin to arguing, since all of two system did not strike the mainland, none ever will.  Hmm.

Or, we could just employ that same old mantra ..which is akin to a very coarse method: throw all 225 reasonably comparable evolutions into a blender, and pour a frappe.   

TY Typhoon,,,,all Im saying is that there is still time for things / model solutions to change and that this is not set in stone. TY for your reply,,,,I like Frappes lol

[bluewave]

5 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Long Beach I understand and I get it. If the setup is exactly as it is pictured today on Tuesday I say yes this is Historical and will do something no other storm has EVER done. I just think there is still a lot of time and things can still change I do not think for a minute that this is the final solution.

The ridge is just too strong to allow an escape OTS. Notice how the track keeps correcting south in response to the WAR.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2018/FLORENCE_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_with_line

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

TY Typhoon,,,,all Im saying is that there is still time for things / model solutions to change and that this is not set in stone. TY for your reply,,,,I like Frappes lol

yeah ..I actually haven't eaten anything yet this morning - heh

[Brasiluvsnow]

14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The ridge is just too strong to allow an escape OTS. Notice how the track keeps correcting south in response to the WAR.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2018/FLORENCE_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_with_line

Bluewave or Typhoon or anyone else let me ask you or anyone a question if I may , the reason that the Hurricanes over the last 50 years all shifted North eventually and that none have hit the coast ( regardless of those storms setups ) is because at this time of year the Bermuda Highs are NOW usually moving West To East and allow storms to escape and head north,,,,,am I wrong ? I understand that the Ridge is "historical" and "theres a first time for everything" but to say the Ridge no matter how strong it appears right now can't move, weaken or shift EAST as it has done in the past and as it usually does this time of year would be a mistake , especially that there is still time (granted not a lot but its not hours its a day or so if not more ) again I am new to all this and still learning. Thanks guys for any replies

[Orangeburgwx]

27 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Bluewave or Typhoon or anyone else let me ask you or anyone a question if I may , the reason that the Hurricanes over the last 50 years all shifted North eventually and that none have hit the coast ( regardless of those storms setups ) is because at this time of year the Bermuda Highs are NOW usually moving West To East and allow storms to escape and head north,,,,,am I wrong ? I understand that the Ridge is "historical" and "theres a first time for everything" but to say the Ridge no matter how strong it appears right now can't move, weaken or shift EAST as it has done in the past and as it usually does this time of year would be a mistake , especially that there is still time (granted not a lot but its not hours its a day or so if not more ) again I am new to all this and still learning. Thanks guys for any replies

You are not wrong (that is what drove the initial wave of shear that tore Florence apart), but there is another high pushing southeast from Canada that is building and will basically merge with the Bermuda High. That will strengthen it, and force Florence south, hope this explaination helps

[Brasiluvsnow]

2 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

You are not wrong (that is what drove the initial wave of shear that tore Florence apart), but there is another high pushing southeast from Canada that is building and will basically merge with the Bermuda High. That will strengthen it, and force Florence south, hope this explaination helps

Thanks Orangeburg

 

[donsutherland1]

When one uses historical data, one can't assume that a single look at the data for a storm provides a complete picture. First, the guidance suggested that Florence would track westward and perhaps even a little south of west. One could examine the historical data at its expected position e.g., 24 hours in advance, for additional context (which would have implied a possible threat). None of those tweeting about the historical tracks mentioned this. Why? One can't look only superficially. Second, one also has to regularly examine the data, as the storm progresses, because the synoptic pattern is not static or constrained by what happened in the past. It is dynamic.

Historical data should not be used as a substitute for the synoptic pattern or guidance. It can complement such information.

Based on Florence's 11 am AST position, (24.5N 54.3W) and an examination of all tropical storms or hurricanes that passed within 200 nautical miles of that position, one finds 95 tropical cyclones. Six of those tropical cyclones went on to make U.S. landfall.

1880 Hurricane #4: SE Florida, Category 2

1893 Hurricane #6, Georgia, Category 3

1903 Hurricane #4, New Jersey, Category 1

1933 Hurricane #6, North Carolina, Category 1

1961 Esther, Massachusetts, Tropical Storm

2003 Isabel, North Carolina, Category 2

So, this data essentially confirms what the guidance has been implying: the threat of a possible U.S. landfall is increasing.

If one examines the synoptic pattern using the EPS, most ensemble members have suggested possible landfall from Florida to North Carolina. The operational ECMWF falls within that large cluster. The historical data had 4/6 (67%) of the landfalling storms make landfall in that area.

Given the synoptic pattern, the probability of landfall is far higher than the 6% figure implied by the historic tracks. That probability also increases based on the NHC's forecast position 24 hours from now.

Such landfall is still not assured, as shown on the 12z GFS, but it is probably at least somewhat more likely than no landfall at this point in time. The Southeast appears to have the highest risk of seeing such landfall based on all of the above information.

Finally, in this thread a reference to Sandy was made. Although Sandy's track was essentially unprecedented for a tropical cyclone, winter storms have made such a turn under the influence of powerful blocking (as had been present in late October 2012).

[MJO812]

Gefs Is still offshore and further north.

[NyCwEaThErFeEn]

19 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Gefs Is still offshore and further north.

It’s dead jim

give it up Anthony it’s not going to hit us this is going to hit the outer banks and scoot out.

[Rtd208]

Congrats to the GFS for reaching a whole new level of stupid IMO.

[Rtd208]

Classic.

 

[Rtd208]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Very rough 12z Euro run for North Carolina. Florence stalls out for at least 3 days over the state.

Historic flooding?

[Snowlover11]

man nc and south va sees wind and rain for days.