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Hurricane Florence Catch all Thread

Brian5671

By Brian5671,
in New York City Metro

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said:

It'll depend on the strength of the ridge and any kickers that might come along but all else being equal I think there's a fairly significant model bias to slowing storms down too much as they get caught in the westerlies.  Seems like extratropical and tropical systems tend to clear a good deal faster than they get modelled.  How many times on this board do you hear that such-and-such model shows snow starting on Friday night and it's still snowing at hour 72, and then that doesn't happen, lol.

Some do slow down though like Eduouard in 1996, the slowing down of the forward speed caused it to weaken though and not even E NE saw much outside of some tropical storm winds.  We had a couple of storms slow down just offshore in the last couple of years also with similar results.

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Santa Claus

Santa Claus

Posted
Posted
39 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Some do slow down though like Eduouard in 1996, the slowing down of the forward speed caused it to weaken though and not even E NE saw much outside of some tropical storm winds.  We had a couple of storms slow down just offshore in the last couple of years also with similar results.

Oh absolutely, and you might be thinking of Jose last year, which was around the benchmark's latitude and then just went nowhere.  It'll always depend on the setup.  And some of the modelling indicates scenarios where high pressure really traps this thing.  I'm just a hard sell on it until we get much closer.  The storm is going to change in size and intensity, probably very significantly, in a way that will change how it interacts with any ridging.  The strength and positioning of said ridging isn't set in stone, and then you'll have more discrete low pressure features that could give this a lane to escape, which are even harder to model.  Just way too early.

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NewYorkweatherfan

NewYorkweatherfan

Posted
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25 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Stop being an annoying weenie.

Who is saying east ?

No one is wishcasting 

You’re right let this play out. There is definitely a chance of a hurricane bigger than sandy to hit our area next week. Still too far out to know. If it trends north this will end up Irene track like. That would most likely be a cat 3 hitting New York 

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
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46 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

Oh absolutely, and you might be thinking of Jose last year, which was around the benchmark's latitude and then just went nowhere.  It'll always depend on the setup.  And some of the modelling indicates scenarios where high pressure really traps this thing.  I'm just a hard sell on it until we get much closer.  The storm is going to change in size and intensity, probably very significantly, in a way that will change how it interacts with any ridging.  The strength and positioning of said ridging isn't set in stone, and then you'll have more discrete low pressure features that could give this a lane to escape, which are even harder to model.  Just way too early.

Annoyed that Lee Goldberg just said that "based on new info" he feels the storm will recurve, he did say it was very early though to be predicting anything.

That was Jose right!  Another one was (I think) Matthew in 2016, remember early runs had it doing a Sandy-esque turn into the coast and it ended up going into SC with record rains and I think that was another one that stalled just offshore of us- both that and Jose brought welcome relief from hot humid weather with cool 30 mph gusts but no rain up here.

 

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Nibor

Nibor

Posted
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8 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Right now if Florence does impact the east coast I would favor NC/VA for landfall with secondary/remnant impacts the most likely outcome here which could still pose plenty of problems for our area depending on track and strength at that point. Obviously the verdict is still out on any details.

I’m most worried about rainfall, whether or not the metro takes direct landfall. 

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
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42 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Annoyed that Lee Goldberg just said that "based on new info" he feels the storm will recurve, he did say it was very early though to be predicting anything.

That was Jose right!  Another one was (I think) Matthew in 2016, remember early runs had it doing a Sandy-esque turn into the coast and it ended up going into SC with record rains and I think that was another one that stalled just offshore of us- both that and Jose brought welcome relief from hot humid weather with cool 30 mph gusts but no rain up here.

 

The “new info” was probably the GFS. No other model was running at that time. It’s too soon to reach firm conclusions, but Florence should be watched. A threat still exists. The EPS shows it.

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