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Central PA Fall 2018


pasnownut

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42 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

My parents laughed at total Williamsport Airport gave on Blizzard of 93 something like 17 inches....said it was impossible to drive for two days and even in protected areas 27 or 30 inches of snow were common.

Yeah, that's ridiculous. I had about 18" down here and that was with about a 6 hour period of driving sleet. I think just about everyone north and west of the Piedmont was 2' or more. (Syracuse approached 4' if my memory is correct) 

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1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Yeah, that's ridiculous. I had about 18" down here and that was with about a 6 hour period of driving sleet. I think just about everyone north and west of the Piedmont was 2' or more. (Syracuse approached 4' if my memory is correct) 

I lived in Bethlehem at the time and we had 17 inches due to the same 6 hour flip to a driving sleet storm. BTW, in PA where exactly is the Piedmont? Would the Lehigh Valley be on the Piedmont? I ask because generally it's not referenced as much up here as it is down south.

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2 minutes ago, Voyager said:

I lived in Bethlehem at the time and we had 17 inches due to the same 6 hour flip to a driving sleet storm. BTW, in PA where exactly is the Piedmont? Would the Lehigh Valley be on the Piedmont? I ask because generally it's not referenced as much up here as it is down south.

Piedmont region is anything SE of the Apps. Lehigh Valley is sorta a tweeter as northern Lehigh is likely getting snow when lower areas twds and below souderton could be wet not white. 

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9 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Good map of piedmont04f0007c6c7a390aa0ff625fbeaee48e.jpg


.

That's a good map, thanks.  A lot of people I have spoken to in the LSV think the Piedmont is State College and other more mountainous areas when in reality it is them!    That yellowish area is the "Ehh, piedmont or ridge" tough call area.  The WIKI for PA Geology is pretty decent.  Who wants to discuss escarpments?  LOL.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geology_of_Pennsylvania

 

 

 

 

 

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3 hours ago, bubbler86 said:

That's a good map, thanks.  A lot of people I have spoken to in the LSV think the Piedmont is State College and other more mountainous areas when in reality it is them!    That yellowish area is the "Ehh, piedmont or ridge" tough call area.  The WIKI for PA Geology is pretty decent.  Who wants to discuss escarpments?  LOL.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geology_of_Pennsylvania

 

 

 

 

 

Thanks for the answers, guys! The Piedmont is definitely more pronounced down south, hence the better knowledge of where it is down there. So the Lehigh Valley is part of the Great Valley section, and here in Tamaqua we are in the Anthracite Upland section.

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CTP in their discussion today mentioned the possibility of our Christmas snow. They referenced the current difference between the Euro & GFS.

The Euro at 12z showed 2 chances of snow around Christmas. The first possibility is for some very light snow on Christmas Eve day from a weak wave. The second possibility is on Christmas night into early on the 26th from a wave that looks to be slightly stronger.

Hopefully more models join the Euro & deliver us some Christmas snow!

E1C1DE6B-1697-41BA-9E89-14C080842477.png

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The 0z Euro continued to like the idea of Christmas snow. It actually brought the second wave in slightly stronger & delivered the best amounts just to the south of CTP. Previous Euro runs had placed the bullseye near I-80. We still have plenty of time to go to work out the details, but I think this has a chance to bring a minor event to CTP for Christmas!

8EA63687-6C7B-458F-9574-4749593A5C3E.png

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14 hours ago, Superstorm said:

Good map of piedmont04f0007c6c7a390aa0ff625fbeaee48e.jpg


.

Awesome map! I referenced the Piedmont initially, it was something that I was taught in school...Lancaster was in the Piedmont section of PA. My understanding was it was the area essentially to the south and east of Blue Mountain and northwest of I-95. In '93 those north and west of Blue Mountain got 2' or more of snow. (roughly speaking)

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1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

We have a chance at some Christmas snow & everyone is here talking about Piedmont ! 

 

This is what Horst is saying for Lancaster: (and why I'm not saying much about it)

"For Lancaster, PA...the only vague hope is a weak clipper system that will move through late Sunday night with near freezing temps. It would have to come in sharper & colder to give us anything significant--a real long shot." 

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Outside our discussion about whether a completely snowless (potential) December is historical or not I see the pattern really setting up to be its best about 1 month from now and lasting into Mid February.  The prospect of that should bring some excitement as it could not be timed better.   The EC and EPS are both hinting strongly at mid January (with even some possibility of early Jan) for when we get a true arctic air-mass to work with.  Any snow we get the next few weeks is just going to be lucky timing as the US is getting fire hosed with mild pacific air. This is not to say we could not get a snow storm but I personally do not see any true sustained cold for 2-3 weeks.   I read somewhere that the second half of December is now progged to be the second warmest ever, by average, nationwide.  It is possible there are no Continental US based reporting stations below freezing (except extreme examples like Mt Washington) during daytime tomorrow!  That possibility is quite the anomaly this late into meteorological winter.   

 

Edit-And before we get back to cold we may be dealing with some fairly moderate flooding this weekend. 2-3" of rain.

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4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Even if we miss out on a little Christmas snow, the GEFS & EPS are looking promising in the day 10-15 window as we end 2018 & begin the new year. Snow amounts Have been increasing on the last few runs of each.

 

 

This I can get on board with. Still lots to be excited about by the time we flip the calendar. 

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1 hour ago, bubbler86 said:

I think it is going to be a rockin' time frame from Jan 10th for a good month or so.  Storms and rumors of storms every day!  :-)

 

It’s been a long time coming. Looking forward to the board getting busy and searching for storms.

If the pattern could settle into an overrinning one with -nao and active split flow with STJ for a while I’d be just giddy. Then pound is with some millers. I like all of em. Right Sauss??

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