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Central PA Fall 2018


pasnownut

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1 hour ago, Voyager said:

Sitting here near Rolla, MO at the Road Ranger truckstop on I-44 about 80 miles safely south of the blizzard. Ran into a bit of rain getting here, and now some wind blown drizzle, but that was it.

Thank God!!! 

With the ice delayed here Saturday and this you’re living the blessed life!

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On 11/26/2018 at 2:54 PM, Superstorm said:

Reading through Horst’s discussion today, the mild/wet and cold/dry continues (with negative departures) through mid month. Then a warmer patterns sets up after mid month.


.

A little worried about the chances of a fast start to winter.  Early December once looked promising but now mid to upper 40's.  Looking at the Accuweather long range forecast, which I believe is just verbatim graphic output of the GFS, winter does not start until the end of January.

 

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, bubbler86 said:

A little worried about the chances of a fast start to winter.  Early December once looked promising but now mid to upper 40's.  Looking at the Accuweather long range forecast, which I believe is just verbatim graphic output of the GFS, winter does not start until the end of January.

 

 

 

 

Yeah and I fear we get into a dry cycle by the time temps drop below average. We lucked out with our big early storm and might be sitting on the sidelines in the LSV for a while.

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1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Next week looks very interesting for the possibility of 2 snow events.

The first one could bring a low end snow event around Tuesday or Wednesday.

There is the chance of a moderate to high end snow event next weekend.

The 0z Euro & EPS are becoming more interested in these events with each run!

looked a bit last night and yes, next week has my interest.  Left cabin yesterday w/ 8-10 still on the ground and had 2" between monday night and yesterday (snowing lightly when we left before lunch).  Hoping we get some more before we may thaw.

Nut

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This is Eric's sense for late next week. He doesn't sound very enthused...

Late next week is nebulous...but Arctic air will be building to the north as another Pacific storm crosses the country. Given a bit of a downstream blocking pattern, you could make the case for a possible snow event around December 8th. However, without any blocking....a track up the OH Valley is more likely, meaning rain or a wintry mix changing to rain. 

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54 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Just letting the dog out for his last time out and what did I see but strange white things falling slowly from the sky.  This is a bit of a surprise since NWS had nothing but rain mentioned for the overnight period.

Good catch.  It is snowing here as well and I never would have noticed if I did not see your post. 

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1 hour ago, paweather said:

well dang it the high slid off to slow for that LP. It is definitely still a signal for next weekend. 

Watch the rest of the GFS run.  That storm track would absolutely crush most of this subforum.  HP is big and is there, and likely would be undermodeled for CAD signal if it is at 1041mb.  Yes moves unfavorably (not sure i buy that move) to more of an easterly fetch, but at 700 we are fine, and only lower levels are in trouble.  500 evolution is not a great look, but plenty of time for this to change. 

FWIW GEFS looks notably different (better) at 500 so, i'd hang my little hat on it for now...

However the outcome, this looks like one to watch.

 

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19 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 6z GFS for next weekend’s potential snow storm looks a lot like the great 2009 December storm that hit a week or so before Christmas!

This is the Kuchera ratio snow map from the 6z GFS.

This should be a great week of tracking!

 

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as soon as i saw that map....i had a feeling you'd be "sharing".....:)

Stock up on the coffee....gonna be a long week as the consensus has been growing for this storm to be a legit threat....and sizable as well.

Heeerrrreeweeegooooooo 

 

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