canderson Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 I didn’t expect this heavy and prolonged rain. I’m over 1.5” today I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 I’m over 1.20” for the day. With the half frozen ground and wet November of 7.50” before this event, water is standing everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 The GEFS has been ramping up snow amounts in the day 10 to day 15 period. We should also keep an eye on this coming Friday for the chance of a light snow or mix event. The GFS & Euro have been hinting at this the last couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 The Canadian at 12z likes the idea of a light snow event for this Friday! Maybe for once it will be right?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Harrisburg, State College and Williamsport are now all in the 2nd wettest year on record. State College will become number 1 this week probably. HBG and Williamsport probably don’t make it to 1 but damn it’s been wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 Sitting here near Rolla, MO at the Road Ranger truckstop on I-44 about 80 miles safely south of the blizzard. Ran into a bit of rain getting here, and now some wind blown drizzle, but that was it. Thank God!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 1 hour ago, Voyager said: Sitting here near Rolla, MO at the Road Ranger truckstop on I-44 about 80 miles safely south of the blizzard. Ran into a bit of rain getting here, and now some wind blown drizzle, but that was it. Thank God!!! With the ice delayed here Saturday and this you’re living the blessed life! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 6 minutes ago, canderson said: With the ice delayed here Saturday and this you’re living the blessed life! Indeed, and I'll take it for now. Sooner or later I'll not be so fortunate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 16 hours ago, canderson said: Harrisburg, State College and Williamsport are now all in the 2nd wettest year on record. State College will become number 1 this week probably. HBG and Williamsport probably don’t make it to 1 but damn it’s been wet. LNS is less than 3" away from the all time record as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 Reading through Horst’s discussion today, the mild/wet and cold/dry continues (with negative departures) through mid month. Then a warmer patterns sets up after mid month.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 On 11/26/2018 at 2:54 PM, Superstorm said: Reading through Horst’s discussion today, the mild/wet and cold/dry continues (with negative departures) through mid month. Then a warmer patterns sets up after mid month. . A little worried about the chances of a fast start to winter. Early December once looked promising but now mid to upper 40's. Looking at the Accuweather long range forecast, which I believe is just verbatim graphic output of the GFS, winter does not start until the end of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 2 hours ago, bubbler86 said: A little worried about the chances of a fast start to winter. Early December once looked promising but now mid to upper 40's. Looking at the Accuweather long range forecast, which I believe is just verbatim graphic output of the GFS, winter does not start until the end of January. Yeah and I fear we get into a dry cycle by the time temps drop below average. We lucked out with our big early storm and might be sitting on the sidelines in the LSV for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 Seems to be some sort of signal for a winter storm centered around 12/8-12/9. As Superstorm alluded to above, the pattern looks to relax in Mid-December so perhaps we can score something during the transition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 Erie looks to be having fun right now.. anyone else see the flizzard this morning? My wife let the dog out at 530. She said it was like a whiteout for 30 seconds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 Next week looks very interesting for the possibility of 2 snow events. The first one could bring a low end snow event around Tuesday or Wednesday. There is the chance of a moderate to high end snow event next weekend. The 0z Euro & EPS are becoming more interested in these events with each run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 29, 2018 Author Share Posted November 29, 2018 1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Next week looks very interesting for the possibility of 2 snow events. The first one could bring a low end snow event around Tuesday or Wednesday. There is the chance of a moderate to high end snow event next weekend. The 0z Euro & EPS are becoming more interested in these events with each run! looked a bit last night and yes, next week has my interest. Left cabin yesterday w/ 8-10 still on the ground and had 2" between monday night and yesterday (snowing lightly when we left before lunch). Hoping we get some more before we may thaw. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 CTP posted its radar will be offline staring Monday and lasting through Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 This is Eric's sense for late next week. He doesn't sound very enthused... Late next week is nebulous...but Arctic air will be building to the north as another Pacific storm crosses the country. Given a bit of a downstream blocking pattern, you could make the case for a possible snow event around December 8th. However, without any blocking....a track up the OH Valley is more likely, meaning rain or a wintry mix changing to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Just letting the dog out for his last time out and what did I see but strange white things falling slowly from the sky. This is a bit of a surprise since NWS had nothing but rain mentioned for the overnight period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 54 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: Just letting the dog out for his last time out and what did I see but strange white things falling slowly from the sky. This is a bit of a surprise since NWS had nothing but rain mentioned for the overnight period. Good catch. It is snowing here as well and I never would have noticed if I did not see your post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 The 0z Euro, GFS, & new GFS all looked good for snow for CTP for Next Saturday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Glad its going to rain Saturday, since all the wind this week kinda dried things out a little Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 well now where is this going 1041 H is positioned nicely might be suppressed though: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 well dang it the high slid off to slow for that LP. It is definitely still a signal for next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 30, 2018 Author Share Posted November 30, 2018 1 hour ago, paweather said: well dang it the high slid off to slow for that LP. It is definitely still a signal for next weekend. Watch the rest of the GFS run. That storm track would absolutely crush most of this subforum. HP is big and is there, and likely would be undermodeled for CAD signal if it is at 1041mb. Yes moves unfavorably (not sure i buy that move) to more of an easterly fetch, but at 700 we are fine, and only lower levels are in trouble. 500 evolution is not a great look, but plenty of time for this to change. FWIW GEFS looks notably different (better) at 500 so, i'd hang my little hat on it for now... However the outcome, this looks like one to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Euro looks great 8 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 30, 2018 Author Share Posted November 30, 2018 5 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Euro looks great 8 days away . why yes...... yes it does. Just 197 hours away from a flush _hit (leaves all options open) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 The 6z GFS for next weekend’s potential snow storm looks a lot like the great 2009 December storm that hit a week or so before Christmas! This is the Kuchera ratio snow map from the 6z GFS. This should be a great week of tracking! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 1, 2018 Author Share Posted December 1, 2018 19 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The 6z GFS for next weekend’s potential snow storm looks a lot like the great 2009 December storm that hit a week or so before Christmas! This is the Kuchera ratio snow map from the 6z GFS. This should be a great week of tracking! as soon as i saw that map....i had a feeling you'd be "sharing".....:) Stock up on the coffee....gonna be a long week as the consensus has been growing for this storm to be a legit threat....and sizable as well. Heeerrrreeweeegooooooo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 That snowfall distribution really is reminiscent of the first 2 of that winter's doozies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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