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Central PA Fall 2018

pasnownut

By pasnownut,
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

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Festus

Festus

Posted
Posted

Snowplow - 1, My mailbox - 0.  Snapped the mounting plate in half!  Dude must have been flying and that was some HEAVY paste this morning.  Went to Home Depot for a replacement and looks like I wasn't the only one.  Place was all but sold out.  I know that pales in comparison what others went through yesterday and last night but carnage nonetheless.

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djr5001

djr5001

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, canderson said:

8.8" storm total for MDT. 

I know we shouldn't give mets any issue with this system but man did they miss it. Understandably so, but damn. 

Just my gut feeling on this and I don't have any particular forecast in mind from anyone to target but I think the precipitable water anomaly (>+2 standard deviations) wasn't factored in enough for some forecasts based on predicted accumulation numbers and rainfall amounts.  The models were spitting out ~1.5" QPF for much of the mid-state.  Anomalously high moisture content (combined with the other dynamics) seemed to help allow rates to stay heavy for hours, keeping the column cool enough to stay snow longer than allow for an earlier changeover.  I melted to 1.62" liquid which is insane around here when winter weather is involved.  We don't typically see PWAT values over 1" during Dec-Jan-Feb and when we do early or late season with just enough cold air we seem to see large snow totals.  I don't know what PWAT values were (I wonder if I can find this info archived somewhere) for October 2011 storm but liquid amount from that event was 1.39" with 5.5" snow at MDT. 

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Bubbler86

Bubbler86

Posted
Posted
On 11/14/2018 at 7:52 AM, bubbler86 said:

WSW is out for Central part of the state even down to the Mason Dixon.  I expect to see some legit 8-12" totals at this point...even in the western part of the LSV. It is the Eskimo Joe Snow Storm of 2018.

Hmmm....this post was not too bad for my first winter back :-).  Not sure if anyone caught why I called it the Eskimo Joe storm but several days ago he was on here tooting about its potential and really gets some credit for being one of the first (Both Met and non Met) to take it so seriously.

 

 

 

 

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CarlislePaWx

CarlislePaWx

Posted
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Hi again, guys, this time from back home in Carlisle.  Can anyone measuring around my general vicinity (Adams/Cumberland/Dauphin) tell me how much snow you got overnight from the CCB?  It seems from reading that between one and two more inches fell in some spots but I'd like a more specific measurement, if possible.  If I pick one inch then my total snow storm total was 10.0".

I was also able to melt down the entire event, and as djr noted just above, it was a very, very hefty 1.74" of liquid!  That's huge for a winter event that had virtually no pure liquid rainfall.  My estimated breakdown using basic 10:1 for the snow portion is 1.00" with 0.70" liquid from melted sleet, and about 0.04" of freezing rain and/or plain rain.

Looking forward to sharing the next storm from here in Carlisle.  Thanks to all for the chance to follow the storm from down south.

One final note.  This storm brings my total liquid for 2018 up to 55.42" which is close to 15" above average YTD.  Got a shot at cracking the elusive 60" mark for annual precip if the wet pattern continues through to the end of the year.

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WmsptWx

WmsptWx

Posted
Posted

So, WGAL just posted something on Facebook about a fresh batch of Arctic air coming and that Thursday and Friday next week may not leave the twenties. Is that a new development? I was under the impression that we were to get pretty warm around that time? 

 

Reason I am asking is: A few winters ago, I believe it was 2013/14, it seemed like the cold and snow arrived in November (albeit not this early) and every time a warm-up was showing on guidance, it never really happened. I wonder if that is where we are headed.

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canderson

canderson

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Atomixwx said:

So, WGAL just posted something on Facebook about a fresh batch of Arctic air coming and that Thursday and Friday next week may not leave the twenties. Is that a new development? I was under the impression that we were to get pretty warm around that time? 

 

Reason I am asking is: A few winters ago, I believe it was 2013/14, it seemed like the cold and snow arrived in November (albeit not this early) and every time a warm-up was showing on guidance, it never really happened. I wonder if that is where we are headed.

Yesterday the Euro had arctic air arriving overnight Wednesday-Thursday but was by itself. Today though it has been joined by the GFs and ensembles. Highs hovering around freezing for Tgiving and cold as hell Friday a.m. 

We are gonna be in NYC for the parade and was happy for upper 40s. Oh well. At least it’ll be dry.

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Bubbler86

Bubbler86

Posted
Posted

Some significant environmental differences in accumulation in Franklin county.  We still have 4-5" of snowpack and the roads still have snow on them while I just drove back from Mt Alto where there is only snow in patches and most yards are green and open.  HRRR actually progged that fairly well with what appeared to be a snow hole west of Waynesboro.

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canderson

canderson

Posted
Posted
42 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

Some significant environmental differences in accumulation in Franklin county.  We still have 4-5" of snowpack and the roads still have snow on them while I just drove back from Mt Alto where there is only snow in patches and most yards are green and open.  HRRR actually progged that fairly well with what appeared to be a snow hole west of Waynesboro.

We had to run to Lancaster and the difference between it and Harrisburg is night and day. 

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Blizzard of 93

Blizzard of 93

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, canderson said:

Monday a few of the northern guys here might see a sneaky 1-2”. 

Yes, the northern crew has the best chance, but I wouldn’t rule out some light snow for the LSV as well by Tuesday am.

Thanksgiving & Friday am look frigid !

Then, towards the end of the month into the first week of December we have a good chance for more winter storms. The pattern has great potential for snow chances! 

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
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Posted
8 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Yes, the northern crew has the best chance, but I wouldn’t rule out some light snow for the LSV as well by Tuesday am.

Thanksgiving & Friday am look frigid !

Then, towards the end of the month into the first week of December we have a good chance for more winter storms. The pattern has great potential for snow chances! 

Was hunting yesterday and didnt get to look, but fair to say, you've got my interest.  I was anticipating a warmup post turk day, but hey, I'll deal w/ cold/snow.  I can do it :).

 

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sauss06

sauss06

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

Was hunting yesterday and didnt get to look, but fair to say, you've got my interest.  I was anticipating a warmup post turk day, but hey, I'll deal w/ cold/snow.  I can do it :).

 

 

9 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Yes, the northern crew has the best chance, but I wouldn’t rule out some light snow for the LSV as well by Tuesday am.

Thanksgiving & Friday am look frigid !

Then, towards the end of the month into the first week of December we have a good chance for more winter storms. The pattern has great potential for snow chances! 

It looks to warm up Sunday/Monday after Thanksgiving when another system comes through. Looks to me to be high 40s and rain. Just in time for first day of rifle season

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pasnownut

pasnownut

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9 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

 

It looks to warm up Sunday/Monday after Thanksgiving when another system comes through. Looks to me to be high 40s and rain. Just in time for first day of rifle season

fog....ughh.  hunters delight....not

if i could trust the GFS at distance, it looks like tuesday of rifle gets colder/snow.  with the snow OTG up there now, i think it will likely be white for the hunters no matter.  Hearing that bear hunters are having trouble w/ the deep snowpack.  Pack it down for me boys....i'm getting old. 

Happy Sunday and Turk week everyone!

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Bubbler86

Bubbler86

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Why are models all showing .25+ of precip through Tuesday yet nws barely has mention of much rain or snow.

My local forecast shows similar numbers:

Monday Night
Light rain likely before 1am, then showers likely after 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 36. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

 

 

 

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sauss06

sauss06

Posted
Posted

https://www.tractorsupply.com/tsc/product/acurite-6-in-pro-digital-weather-center-with-forecast-temperature-humidity-wind-speed-1044233?cm_mmc=feed-_-GoogleShopping-_-Product-_-1044233&gclid=EAIaIQobChMImsXAh6Hj3gIVAVuGCh2opAKOEAkYCSABEgJaR_D_BwE

 

anyone have this? If so, any feedback??

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