KPITSnow Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 1 hour ago, NortheastPAWx said: Yikes. Hoping Florence stays south or the Susky's going to go bonkers. Yeah. The ramifications of Gordon, then Florence coming through would be quite serious. Could easily be looking at a foot plus of rain if Florence dumps on us after Gordon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 If the nam is correct and Flo does come into the area could be really bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 This weekend is the Irene/Lee combo flood anniversary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 1 hour ago, Cashtown_Coop said: I’ve had 4” at golf course in Fairfield last night / this morn. Still closed. Not looking good And to think, I gotten a whopping 0.00" so far. For some reason, Tamaqua is known as the "Land of the Running Water", but I'm not sure why. Whenever we have a precipitation event, we are one of the areas with the LOWEST totals. Perhaps what they meant was that the water "runs away" from Tamaqua... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 Damn that's a lot of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 It’s great to see the Fall thread underway! The cool temperatures this weekend are a welcome relief from the 90’s that we had to endure this past week. The rain this weekend from Gordon’s remnants, followed possibly from the impacts of Florence later next week could be a massive problem for Central PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 47 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: It’s great to see the Fall thread underway! The cool temperatures this weekend are a welcome relief from the 90’s that we had to endure this past week. The rain this weekend from Gordon’s remnants, followed possibly from the impacts of Florence later next week could be a massive problem for Central PA. For some, maybe. My area? I know better. We will miss a good chunk of Gordon's remnants to the west and north, and Florence's will never get here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 I'm all rained out! Send it north,south,east, or west. We have had so much rain this year, it almost feels abnormal when it's not raining. I'm ready for our first frost and freeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 If Florence stalls out and dies in north carolina and virginia then we probably won't see too much rain from it I'd think. Couldn't imagine what would happen if it came up here after getting all of this rain from gordon ontop of the record rain we've had all year and all summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 1 hour ago, TheDreamTraveler said: If Florence stalls out and dies in north carolina and virginia then we probably won't see too much rain from it I'd think. Couldn't imagine what would happen if it came up here after getting all of this rain from gordon ontop of the record rain we've had all year and all summer. I just looked at this mornings Euro and GFS. The Euro gets Florence's precip right to the Mason-Dixon Line, hammers Virginia with 15-25 inches, and then shuts it off, and the GFS, well...it's out to lunch as it keeps all the rain offshore, with a whopping 95 inches out over the open Atlantic... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 16 hours ago, daxx said: I'm all rained out! Send it north,south,east, or west. We have had so much rain this year, it almost feels abnormal when it's not raining. I'm ready for our first frost and freeze. This!!! Enough already. Here's hoping Flo is one giant no-show. I feel sick for all the people around here that have lost so much from flooding this summer. Give them a break, please... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 I’m LOVING today. Fall preview! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 As of 5 p.m. KMDT record 1.78” rain since midnight, a new daily record (was 1.33”) Lots more rain incoming too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 Company picnic today at Hersheypark...yeah, not so nice for an amusement park day. Remarkably, I think everyone who was there parked in the closest lot adjacent to the old arena. There were very, very few people milling about. Susquehanna is supposed to reach 46' in Marietta by late Tuesday before leveling off. At that stage the LSV will be vulnerable to river flooding if Flo does pay us a visit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 It literally has not stopped raining here in the last 30+ hours, with the rest of the overnight and Monday to go for this event. Flooding issues have been steadily increasing with several road closures being noted and some of the local waterways cracking flood stage. The prospect of Florence potentially impacting our area at the end of the week definitely has my attention as I am very concerned about the flood potential from such an outcome. This current event (remnants of Gordon + frontal boundary) is already concerning enough as it looks to generate a pretty widespread flooding event throughout a large section of the commonwealth by later tomorrow in addition to what's already occurring. Some of the heaviest rainfall rates could occur later today with the passage of the frontal boundary and the potential addition of a more convective element to the rainfall vs the stratiform rain that has been occurring over the last 24-30 hours or so. The most worrisome thing when it comes to Florence is the potential for it to stall out. Modeling builds a pretty commanding eastern ridge with significant + anomalies over Quebac/Ontario. It's starting to becoming evident on the models that there might not be anything to recurve the storm or at least kick the storm out quickly in the event of an eastern US impact. Right now the last couple runs have been focused more with a stall in VA/lower Mid Atlantic after a Carolinas landfall. That's really not any better down there, as the entire Mid Atlantic region (in addition to us) have been extremely wet this summer. When I look at this potential I quickly think of 2004's Frances/Ivan combo. The heavy rain and flooding that occurred with Frances the weekend before really helped set the stage for the major flooding that came from Ivan. One could argue the flooding potential is even worse with this. 2004 was nowhere near as wet in the couple preceding summer months as this summer has been. We will have to watch Florence and the future model runs very carefully this week... I'm def concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 5.71" Cashtown 8.99" Fairfield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 Picked up just about 3.5" over the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted September 10, 2018 Author Share Posted September 10, 2018 Good to see you Mag. While Mag has due cause to be alarmed (as we all do after the last few days and what we have in store for today), it does appear that as currently modeled, that Florence hits a wall at the MD line and skirts/retrogrades/stalls (model dependent), but for now, we seem to get into it, but on the more northern side of precip shield. The stall shown on hrs 96-168 on GEFS would make many bay folks quite nervous. Infeed up int the bay from NE quad from the atlantic would be nuts. GEPS has similar look with the stall, but further south into GA Carolinas and would "save the bay". EPS track from free panels looks like it follows GEPS (or GEPS follows EPS - depending on what model you worship). Interesting week coming up. Stay dry if you can... Nut edited to NE quad due to my issues w/ left and right...N....S...blah blah....like i tell my wife when we are driving, just look at my fingers for direction i'm pointing to....and dont listen to me. LOL I do that all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 1 hour ago, pasnownut said: Good to see you Mag. While Mag has due cause to be alarmed (as we all do after the last few days and what we have in store for today), it does appear that as currently modeled, that Florence hits a wall at the MD line and skirts/retrogrades/stalls (model dependent), but for now, we seem to get into it, but on the more northern side of precip shield. The stall shown on hrs 96-168 on GEFS would make many bay folks quite nervous. Infeed up int the bay from NW quad from the atlantic would be nuts. GEPS has similar look with the stall, but further south into GA Carolinas and would "save the bay". EPS track from free panels looks like it follows GEPS (or GEPS follows EPS - depending on what model you worship). Interesting week coming up. Stay dry if you can... Nut I have a suspicion we miss most all of the moisture, which unfortunately means those south and especially in the Blue Ridges are going to get really hammered with floods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted September 10, 2018 Author Share Posted September 10, 2018 12 minutes ago, canderson said: I have a suspicion we miss most all of the moisture, which unfortunately means those south and especially in the Blue Ridges are going to get really hammered with floods. While i initially worried about that as well, the NW (yes NW) verbatim, the precip stays tightly wrapped through @ 132 and only opens up slightly before trekking ENE pulling precip shield along w/ it. GEFS was farthest N solution so I'm looking due to MBY implications. Other ENS guidance keeps this far enough S for S appalachia Boone/Asheville to get the goods. I hope it goos poof today....for all of us. the whole east coast needs sun....lotsa sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 KMDT has recorded 4.07" rain from Friday though 10 a.m. today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 The rain has finally started to relent around here, after being non-stop since about this time SATURDAY afternoon. In terms of the flooding on the local rivers this is probably the worst since Ivan in my immediate local area. Lots of road closures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted September 10, 2018 Author Share Posted September 10, 2018 1 hour ago, MAG5035 said: The rain has finally started to relent around here, after being non-stop since about this time SATURDAY afternoon. In terms of the flooding on the local rivers this is probably the worst since Ivan in my immediate local area. Lots of road closures. 322 just reopened today in Northern Lanco after being closed for almost 10 days. Welcome to the club buddy.. This is getting quite old. Team GFS Ensemble shifted East w/ precip max and while we get a "refresher", we dont get a shellackin. I'd say a fair consensus for today's runs that south of Hatteras is not where I'd want to be on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 . Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 Hell 1-2” rain over three days will seem like a drought here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 I just have an uneasy feeling about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 1 hour ago, sauss06 said: I just have an uneasy feeling about this. So do I. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 I just have an uneasy feeling about this. How so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 1 hour ago, sauss06 said: I just have an uneasy feeling about this. I’m actualy different, I don’t this means much for us aside a little rain. Abd serious, if we get 2” in a few days it won’t be any different than a normal week we’ve had since June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 10 minutes ago, anotherman said: How so? Nothing scientific, just a gut feeling we feel the effects from Flo. More rain we don't need etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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