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Central PA Fall 2018


pasnownut

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7 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Would need to check initialization (how model starts w/ thermal profiles and all that stuff to see how much of it we can believe, but if you just go off the trend....it is a good one. (and i dont have time to do that).  Need to work while i view.  

And I think it is being buoyed by the nice back end snows showing on the ETA.  So rare those come to fruition but all short range models I have seen are showing 1-4".  

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9 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

dont look now, but both3/12 NAM puts much of LSV back in the game and has upped accums.  Nice tick SE w/ frozen.  N MD should be kinda giddy as well.

cut in 1/2 and I'm still happier than a clam.

namconus_asnow_neus_11.png

really hard to believe, really. I just mowed my grass :lol: 

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2 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

And I think it is being buoyed by the nice back ends snows showing the ETA.  So rare those come to fruition but all short range models I have seen are showing 1-4".  

yeah, i saw that, but still makes me nervous as the dryslot is a notable one....but so is the reacharound....i mean wraparound.  hehe

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We are somewhere between 1 and 2".  Wind is blowing more than I anticipated and I am not doing scientific melting measurements.  LOL.  Heavy band is moving in from N Md and would say we are at SN+ right now.  Still 25 degrees so I think that is where we stick for now.  Doubt it gets above freezing until tomorrow.

 

 

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I hate to say it, but I'm just not sure how we get what the NAM HRRR are spitting out IMBY.  I see surface maps riddled w/ the wrong colors.  Those hi resers are supposed to pick up on that stuff, and I'm gonna call it a win if i can eek out 2-3" before transition.  from Ship W and N, yall should have a great event. Carry on.  Just trying to keep my local peeps from lookin for ledges.

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5 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I hate to say it, but I'm just not sure how we get what the NAM HRRR are spitting out IMBY.  I see surface maps riddled w/ the wrong colors.  Those hi resers are supposed to pick up on that stuff, and I'm gonna call it a win if i can eek out 2-3" before transition.  from Ship W and N, yall should have a great event. Carry on.  Just trying to keep my local peeps from lookin for ledges.

Agreed, I went for a coating to 2" so I don't think I'll be dissapointed today.  Just sitting back enjoying this a week before Thanksgiving!

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8 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I hate to say it, but I'm just not sure how we get what the NAM HRRR are spitting out IMBY.  I see surface maps riddled w/ the wrong colors.  Those hi resers are supposed to pick up on that stuff, and I'm gonna call it a win if i can eek out 2-3" before transition.  from Ship W and N, yall should have a great event. Carry on.  Just trying to keep my local peeps from lookin for ledges.

Maybe, but I dunno...a lot of places WAY south of us have that much already and they are still snowing.

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15 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I hate to say it, but I'm just not sure how we get what the NAM HRRR are spitting out IMBY.  I see surface maps riddled w/ the wrong colors.  Those hi resers are supposed to pick up on that stuff, and I'm gonna call it a win if i can eek out 2-3" before transition.  from Ship W and N, yall should have a great event. Carry on.  Just trying to keep my local peeps from lookin for ledges.

850's are still a good 3-4 degrees Fahrenheit below freezing for most so do not give up hope.  Seeing reports of 4" in Northern VA.

imageproxy.php?img=&key=20fe2b78d4e66dff

 

850.gif

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7 minutes ago, Superstorm said:


That frontogensis with its upward motion doing the job down there. Dynamics help marginal events.


.

yep.  Thats how we pop down here.  Short duration slamjob before we lose the column.  It does give hope that points north of DC have already overachieved, and give hope that a slightly cooler column helps to win the day.

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12 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

850's are still a good 3-4 degrees Fahrenheit below freezing for most so do not give up hope.  Seeing reports of 4" in Northern VA.

imageproxy.php?img=&key=20fe2b78d4e66dff

 

850.gif

thats the money panel right there, but 700's is where w sleet/ZR.  just looked and still see them above 0 between 22z -6z.  Gotta get it done before then.  Thanks for sharing.  Feeling a bit better now. 

 

BTW it is just ripping outside.  As they say in the MA forum....roads caving. :)

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17 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

thats the money panel right there, but 700's is where w sleet/ZR.  just looked and still see them above 0 between 22z -6z.  Gotta get it done before then.  Thanks for sharing.  Feeling a bit better now. 

 

BTW it is just ripping outside.  As they say in the MA forum....roads caving. :)

Yea no doubt there are other possible issues but I hate to make it too complicated.  I was not actually sure where Akron was until I just looked it up...just SE of Ephrata.  So I understand you have the intrusion on both fronts as to the south and east.

When we started looking for a home we were initially looking in Ephrata and were closing to putting an offer on a house in that Stoudtsburg Village (we have stayed there before) but the taxes were so out of this world we could not do it.

 

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2 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

Yea no doubt there are other possible issues but I hate to make it too complicated.  I was not actually sure where Akron was until I just looked it up...just SE of Ephrata.  So I understand you have the intrusion on both fronts as to the south and east.

When we started looking for a home we were initially looking in Ephrata and were closing to putting an offer on a house in that Stoudtsburg Village (we have stayed there before) but the taxes were so out of this world we could not do it.

 

My Chiro. is next door to Stoudtsburg and looks at it from his backyard.  Yeah, we foot the tax bill around here alright (but i'm nowhere near alone and many locals have crazy @ss tax rates)....but were not gonna ruin the day by talkin bout that....lol. 

Like i said the other day, no matter the result, its a win of varying proportions for all that enjoy this stuff.  

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I think at this point it is not out of the realm that some people in the LSV stay all snow based on the lack of advance in the "sleet line" still south and east of Washington.  Once the forming coastal takes more influence it will push that line north but models have busted, even HRRR, in doing it too fast so any data after that bust is also suspect.  Just a thought.   The GFS depiction was a total failure for the Mid Atlantic. 

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