Bubbler86 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 7 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Would need to check initialization (how model starts w/ thermal profiles and all that stuff to see how much of it we can believe, but if you just go off the trend....it is a good one. (and i dont have time to do that). Need to work while i view. And I think it is being buoyed by the nice back end snows showing on the ETA. So rare those come to fruition but all short range models I have seen are showing 1-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 9 minutes ago, pasnownut said: dont look now, but both3/12 NAM puts much of LSV back in the game and has upped accums. Nice tick SE w/ frozen. N MD should be kinda giddy as well. cut in 1/2 and I'm still happier than a clam. really hard to believe, really. I just mowed my grass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 15, 2018 Author Share Posted November 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: And I think it is being buoyed by the nice back ends snows showing the ETA. So rare those come to fruition but all short range models I have seen are showing 1-4". yeah, i saw that, but still makes me nervous as the dryslot is a notable one....but so is the reacharound....i mean wraparound. hehe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 15, 2018 Author Share Posted November 15, 2018 Hi res HRRR is just a smackdown in central ridge/valley regions. Taint or no taint. Heck of a start to winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Just looked out the window and nothing yet, but probably safe to say that there may be flurryage (is that even a word...lol) in the southwest part of Schuylkill County by now. Temp/dp is now 30/17. I'm guessing not too much longer up here. perhaps close to 11am? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 15, 2018 Author Share Posted November 15, 2018 Starting to pick up in intensity. Whitening of landscape starting to commence.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 We are somewhere between 1 and 2". Wind is blowing more than I anticipated and I am not doing scientific melting measurements. LOL. Heavy band is moving in from N Md and would say we are at SN+ right now. Still 25 degrees so I think that is where we stick for now. Doubt it gets above freezing until tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Snow has commenced. Great start to the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 15, 2018 Author Share Posted November 15, 2018 I hate to say it, but I'm just not sure how we get what the NAM HRRR are spitting out IMBY. I see surface maps riddled w/ the wrong colors. Those hi resers are supposed to pick up on that stuff, and I'm gonna call it a win if i can eek out 2-3" before transition. from Ship W and N, yall should have a great event. Carry on. Just trying to keep my local peeps from lookin for ledges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anduril Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Ripping snow in Delaware right. Looks like it'll be a fun drive home tonight to camp hill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 5 minutes ago, pasnownut said: I hate to say it, but I'm just not sure how we get what the NAM HRRR are spitting out IMBY. I see surface maps riddled w/ the wrong colors. Those hi resers are supposed to pick up on that stuff, and I'm gonna call it a win if i can eek out 2-3" before transition. from Ship W and N, yall should have a great event. Carry on. Just trying to keep my local peeps from lookin for ledges. Agreed, I went for a coating to 2" so I don't think I'll be dissapointed today. Just sitting back enjoying this a week before Thanksgiving! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 8 minutes ago, pasnownut said: I hate to say it, but I'm just not sure how we get what the NAM HRRR are spitting out IMBY. I see surface maps riddled w/ the wrong colors. Those hi resers are supposed to pick up on that stuff, and I'm gonna call it a win if i can eek out 2-3" before transition. from Ship W and N, yall should have a great event. Carry on. Just trying to keep my local peeps from lookin for ledges. Maybe, but I dunno...a lot of places WAY south of us have that much already and they are still snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Maybe, but I dunno...a lot of places WAY south of us have that much already and they are still snowing.That frontogensis with its upward motion doing the job down there. Dynamics help marginal events.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 15 minutes ago, pasnownut said: I hate to say it, but I'm just not sure how we get what the NAM HRRR are spitting out IMBY. I see surface maps riddled w/ the wrong colors. Those hi resers are supposed to pick up on that stuff, and I'm gonna call it a win if i can eek out 2-3" before transition. from Ship W and N, yall should have a great event. Carry on. Just trying to keep my local peeps from lookin for ledges. 850's are still a good 3-4 degrees Fahrenheit below freezing for most so do not give up hope. Seeing reports of 4" in Northern VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 It's a snowglobe outside. Nothing on any paved surfaces, roads might not get covered, but that's probably a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Snow has started in State College. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 15, 2018 Author Share Posted November 15, 2018 7 minutes ago, Superstorm said: That frontogensis with its upward motion doing the job down there. Dynamics help marginal events. . yep. Thats how we pop down here. Short duration slamjob before we lose the column. It does give hope that points north of DC have already overachieved, and give hope that a slightly cooler column helps to win the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 15, 2018 Author Share Posted November 15, 2018 12 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: 850's are still a good 3-4 degrees Fahrenheit below freezing for most so do not give up hope. Seeing reports of 4" in Northern VA. thats the money panel right there, but 700's is where w sleet/ZR. just looked and still see them above 0 between 22z -6z. Gotta get it done before then. Thanks for sharing. Feeling a bit better now. BTW it is just ripping outside. As they say in the MA forum....roads caving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 SN+ here right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 M2.6” S+ 26/24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 White out downtown HBG. I'm on Front Street and can't see the water in the river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 17 minutes ago, pasnownut said: thats the money panel right there, but 700's is where w sleet/ZR. just looked and still see them above 0 between 22z -6z. Gotta get it done before then. Thanks for sharing. Feeling a bit better now. BTW it is just ripping outside. As they say in the MA forum....roads caving. Yea no doubt there are other possible issues but I hate to make it too complicated. I was not actually sure where Akron was until I just looked it up...just SE of Ephrata. So I understand you have the intrusion on both fronts as to the south and east. When we started looking for a home we were initially looking in Ephrata and were closing to putting an offer on a house in that Stoudtsburg Village (we have stayed there before) but the taxes were so out of this world we could not do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Still nothing here. Not even a furry. It's gotta be soon though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj88 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Just started in Danville heavy sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Just now, canderson said: White out downtown HBG. I'm on Front Street and can't see the water in the river. Laying on paved surfaces now in our area, other areas around us roads are bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 15, 2018 Author Share Posted November 15, 2018 1 minute ago, Voyager said: Still nothing here. Not even a furry. It's gotta be soon though. You should be able to smell it man. Any minute for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 15, 2018 Author Share Posted November 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: Yea no doubt there are other possible issues but I hate to make it too complicated. I was not actually sure where Akron was until I just looked it up...just SE of Ephrata. So I understand you have the intrusion on both fronts as to the south and east. When we started looking for a home we were initially looking in Ephrata and were closing to putting an offer on a house in that Stoudtsburg Village (we have stayed there before) but the taxes were so out of this world we could not do it. My Chiro. is next door to Stoudtsburg and looks at it from his backyard. Yeah, we foot the tax bill around here alright (but i'm nowhere near alone and many locals have crazy @ss tax rates)....but were not gonna ruin the day by talkin bout that....lol. Like i said the other day, no matter the result, its a win of varying proportions for all that enjoy this stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 I think at this point it is not out of the realm that some people in the LSV stay all snow based on the lack of advance in the "sleet line" still south and east of Washington. Once the forming coastal takes more influence it will push that line north but models have busted, even HRRR, in doing it too fast so any data after that bust is also suspect. Just a thought. The GFS depiction was a total failure for the Mid Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Another inch last 30 min M3.6” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Just now, Cashtown_Coop said: Another inch last 30 min M3.6” Yea, it is pouring snow. The 2" threshold has caved to over 3 here as well. We actually already had a plow through once which was surprising good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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