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Central PA Fall 2018


pasnownut

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11 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The EPS ensemble mean at 12z today was flat out impressive. This would normally be a nice map for a 10 day period in mid winter!

Here it is for the storm that is on our doorstep! Even if you cut the amounts in half, it would still be a great snow storm for the middle of November.

 

6E424A05-EC80-4EB1-BE2F-8716B8F23465.png

Everything I read today seems to point to a ripe winter pattern by the end of the month. Good times, or at least good tracking times are ahead.

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2 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

Everything I read today seems to point to a ripe winter pattern by the end of the month. Good times, or at least good tracking times are ahead.

The EPS that I posted is just for our current storm with amounts through Friday!

Yes, the pattern also  looks great heading into early December !

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1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 3k High Res NAM really upped the ante for the LSV on its 0z run ! In previous runs it was only showing a couple inches in York & Lancaster, but now it shows this :

 

0D793782-91E6-497A-94AC-65428A31B381.png

Keep in mind, these are 10:1 output maps. Doesn’t factor in sleet. The model output for rimed flakes/sleet will add up as snow in this format. In this storm, Ferrier Method is superior over 10:1 maps. 

 

Cut those map map totals in half for the LSV, and it still might be overdone. Warm air aloft waits for no one. 

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2 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

Horst wrote on Twitter 30 minutes about how tricky this forecast is and if Lancaster is a degree or two colder then it’s 6”+ for them.


. Pro

Aloft in particular. Riding a very fine line between cold enough throughout the profile to support snow for longer. New NAM holds off the sleet a little longer than previous runs/other models because of the stronger omega in the DGZ, helps keep the column at/below freezing, and staves off the WAA aloft until later in the afternoon. 

If the omega is modeled too strong, then you don’t have that opportunity and you change over quickly. 

 

It really could go either way. If it’s all snow, it probably won’t be 10:1. Sloppy, wet, heavy stuff. 

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6 minutes ago, AllWeather said:

Keep in mind, these are 10:1 output maps. Doesn’t factor in sleet. The model output for rimed flakes/sleet will add up as snow in this format. In this storm, Ferrier Method is superior over 10:1 maps. 

 

Cut those map map totals in half for the LSV, and it still might be overdone. Warm air aloft waits for no one. 

I agree, but the trend has been colder on the models from 12z ,& the 3k NAM in particular has made a significant jump up with snow totals for the LSV at 0z

Ratios will play a large role, but the trend is there.

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