Central PA Fall 2018

[Santa Clause]

Thanks man!

[canderson]

Why is there new WWA up by the way? We're well within 24 hours now. 

[WmsptWx]

4 minutes ago, canderson said:

Why is there new WWA up by the way? We're well within 24 hours now. 

Trying to determine if warning criteria is close enough to warrant hoisting given the early nature of the event.

[Voyager]

2 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

Trying to determine if warning criteria is close enough to warrant hoisting given the early nature of the event.

AFD this morning hinted at advisories outside the original warning area. Lets see which models they give more weight to tonight when deciding.

 

[pasnownut]

20 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Euro is a big hit. Put simply the snowmap (10:1) has virtually the entire state in 6”+ with roughly the central third of the state 12”+ 

talkin dirty again.

 

thats why we like you.

 

[paweather]

WOW Euro....I hope it went back to being the King in years past. 

[pasnownut]

17 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

Interesting battle setting up between the Euro/Ukie against the rest. Up until about 2 years ago you could take that combo to the bank. Not so much last year...who will grab the early lead in winter 2018-19?...

Yeah how bout it.  I thought the same thing when I saw ukie and heard Euro was flush....

[pasnownut]

10 minutes ago, canderson said:

Why is there new WWA up by the way? We're well within 24 hours now. 

afternoon package.  Hold your breath and you'll likely see it....ok....we'll likely before 4:00.

[MAG5035]

16 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Where's GEM lining up?

Today’s 12z looked pretty cold, lot of snow on the p-type products. 6+ for most everyone with less in SE PA towards philly. Also has a stripe of a foot plus right up the middle of PA (bit thinner than Euros) 

[Itstrainingtime]

3 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Today’s 12z looked pretty cold, lot of snow on the p-type products. 6+ for most everyone with less in SE PA towards philly. Also has a stripe of a foot plus right up the middle of PA (bit thinner than Euros) 

Thanks...I was reading in the forum to our south it was warmer. I should have looked for myself. 

[2001kx]

I like the horst map 

[WmsptWx]

Warned

[Bubbler86]

Wow, NWS warnings are not sounding as serious as they should. A WWA for York County.  I think that is a bad call but we shall see in 24 hours or so.   I think much of York County should get ready for more snow than than 1-3 and if it does change over quickly then more than 1/4" of ice. 

 

[Santa Clause]

LMAO warnings for ummmm no warning criteria.

[WmsptWx]

2 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

LMAO warnings for ummmm no warning criteria.

First snowfall of the season. Nobody is taking this serious because "the ground is too warm." Sometimes, you have to be aggressive to get attention.

[Cashtown_Coop]

1 minute ago, Wmsptwx said:

LMAO warnings for ummmm no warning criteria.

Exactly.   Border counties from me have same amounts as advisory area.  1-3” snow w tenth of ice.     

[djr5001]

3 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

LMAO warnings for ummmm no warning criteria.

something seems strange to me with the text data - the exact same snow and ice forecast is in some of the warning areas and the advisory area

Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland-
Including the cities of Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Lebanon,
and Carlisle
340 PM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 8 AM EST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow
  accumulations of 1 to 3 inches and ice accumulations of up to
  one tenth of an inch are expected.

 

Adams-York-Lancaster-
Including the cities of Gettysburg, York, and Lancaster
340 PM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 8 AM
EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations
  of 1 to 3 inches and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of
  an inch are expected.

[Bubbler86]

Just now, Atomixwx said:

First snowfall of the season. Nobody is taking this serious because "the ground is too warm." Sometimes, you have to be aggressive to get attention.

Not sure they are allowed to do that.  Criteria is criteria.  

 

[WmsptWx]

5 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

Not sure they are allowed to do that.  Criteria is criteria.  

 

And who, exactly, is going to enforce that? Lol

[Santa Clause]

It makes sense what Atomix is saying, but yeah they are pretty stingy on that usually.

[Jns2183]

I would think it’s quite likely that some place in northwestern Cumberland county will meet the warning criteria. I’ve never seen them issue winter storm warnings for parts of counties.


. Pro

[AllWeather]

18 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

Not sure they are allowed to do that.  Criteria is criteria.  

 

I just called CTP because I was confused and thought the same thing. They told me that when it comes to WSWarnings, there's a gray area with a mix of snow/ice where they can use their discretion to issue a Warnings or Advisory regardless of what the hard-lined all snow vs. all ice scenario criteria say. Their discretion in this case is factoring in that Dauphin, Lebanon, Cumberland, and Perry counties are more traveled than other counties. So while the amounts will be slightly higher than Advisory levels, the higher population and timing is being factored because it'll be more impactful. 

 

Oh, and hey guys! Winter is BACK!

[AllWeather]

3 hours ago, canderson said:

Eric Horst has a 5-8 swath for the majority of this forum. 2-5 elsewhere and .5-2 in the extreme SE.

Edit: Can't get his tweet to embed. URL is:

https://twitter.com/MUweather/status/1062751445450153984

Good to see Eric and our shop are in pretty good agreement: 

[canderson]

I don’t mind the WSW because with the potential of prolonged snow you gotta play it safe especially in movement and the first storm of the season.

[717WeatherLover]

1 minute ago, AllWeather said:

I just called CTP because I was confused and thought the same thing. They told me that when it comes to WSWarnings, there's a gray area with a mix of snow/ice where they can use their discretion to issue a Warnings or Advisory regardless of what the hard-lined all snow vs. all ice scenario criteria say. 

 

Oh, and hey guys! Winter is BACK!

It's the MOST WONDERFUL time of the year........

[paweather]

4 minutes ago, AllWeather said:

I just called CTP because I was confused and thought the same thing. They told me that when it comes to WSWarnings, there's a gray area with a mix of snow/ice where they can use their discretion to issue a Warnings or Advisory regardless of what the hard-lined all snow vs. all ice scenario criteria say. Their discretion in this case is factoring in that Dauphin, Lebanon, Cumberland, and Perry counties are more traveled than other counties. So while the amounts will be slightly higher than Advisory levels, the higher population and timing is being factored because it'll be more impactful. 

 

Oh, and hey guys! Winter is BACK!

great to see you back!

[djr5001]

7 minutes ago, AllWeather said:

I just called CTP because I was confused and thought the same thing. They told me that when it comes to WSWarnings, there's a gray area with a mix of snow/ice where they can use their discretion to issue a Warnings or Advisory regardless of what the hard-lined all snow vs. all ice scenario criteria say. Their discretion in this case is factoring in that Dauphin, Lebanon, Cumberland, and Perry counties are more traveled than other counties. So while the amounts will be slightly higher than Advisory levels, the higher population and timing is being factored because it'll be more impactful. 

 

Oh, and hey guys! Winter is BACK!

I contacted them too and was told its due to it being first storm of season, healthy amount of sleet (though I don't think there is ever an amount of sleet that is healthy), and accumulations of freezing rain as to why the Warning and not Advisory

edit: haha just saw that you saw my tweet to them

[WmsptWx]

12 minutes ago, AllWeather said:

I just called CTP because I was confused and thought the same thing. They told me that when it comes to WSWarnings, there's a gray area with a mix of snow/ice where they can use their discretion to issue a Warnings or Advisory regardless of what the hard-lined all snow vs. all ice scenario criteria say. Their discretion in this case is factoring in that Dauphin, Lebanon, Cumberland, and Perry counties are more traveled than other counties. So while the amounts will be slightly higher than Advisory levels, the higher population and timing is being factored because it'll be more impactful. 

 

Oh, and hey guys! Winter is BACK!

Nice video on the FB, son. 

[Bubbler86]

4 minutes ago, djr5001 said:

I contacted them too and was told its due to it being first storm of season, healthy amount of sleet (though I don't think there is ever an amount of sleet that is healthy), and accumulations of freezing rain as to why the Warning and not Advisory

edit: haha just saw that you saw my tweet to them

I would still prefer if they stayed consistent.  They can use the WWA to give people a heads up but the warnings should be for 4" or more or 1/4" ice (unless the criteria has changed since I was here before?)

 

 

[Cashtown_Coop]

1 minute ago, bubbler86 said:

I would still prefer if they stayed consistent.  They can use the WWA to give people a heads up but the warnings should be for 4" or more or 1/4" ice (unless the criteria has changed since I was here before?)

 

 

Agreed.