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Central PA Fall 2018


pasnownut

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Just now, Voyager said:

From past experiences IMOBY, by the time the deform swings through, the storm is too far north and if we catch some of it, it's not much of a help.

Cant argue that for a second, and thats why I've been nervous for this event.  12z NAM nest shows less front end and more backend action.  Heartbreak city for some (me).  But parsing through the details still doesnt negate the fact that it is a rather nice kickoff to the winter for many of us in the region.  All bonus love for me. 

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4 minutes ago, canderson said:

Eric Horst has a 5-8 swath for the majority of this forum. 2-5 elsewhere and .5-2 in the extreme SE.

Edit: Can't get his tweet to embed. URL is:


https://twitter.com/MUweather/status/1062751445450153984

 

That is a good call...not too conservative and enough to alert the public that tomorrow is not going to be a normal day/kids are at home.  I think somewhere in the Western Edge of the LSV, Western Cumberland or Northern Franklin county, there are some 8+" reports.

 

 

 

 

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23 minutes ago, canderson said:

The gang is all back together. Let the winter months commence!

Hi All!  I'm back too.  I've been reading all the posts while on my annual vacation down in Florida (near Port St. Lucie) where temps have been in the sunny low to mid 80's every day...lol.

I'm scheduled to fly home tomorrow evening!  As much as I want to see snow falling I might choose to wait it out in Atlanta at my son's place and return Friday morning.  Depending on road conditions tomorrow evening I don't want to make my ride have to drive unnecessarily.

Like many have said I look forward to the upcoming winter season and lots of storm discussion, etc.

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11 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

That is a good call...not too conservative and enough to alert the public that tomorrow is not going to be a normal day/kids are at home.  I think somewhere in the Western Edge of the LSV, Western Cumberland or Northern Franklin county, there are some 8+" reports.

 

 

 

 

I agree. 

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41 minutes ago, canderson said:

Eric Horst has a 5-8 swath for the majority of this forum. 2-5 elsewhere and .5-2 in the extreme SE.

Edit: Can't get his tweet to embed. URL is:


https://twitter.com/MUweather/status/1062751445450153984

 

i need my eyes adjusted or lasik redone cause most of us live in 2-5ville (per map)

 

or maybe im just a misfit......:P

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Hey all - just a few interesting items of note that I have for this event.  First one is that I am curious to see how "modeled vs actual" obs are going to play out for the temperature profile as surface temps are going to be running about 20 degrees below normal during the day during the initial thump at the start of the event tomorrow.  Models running a degree or two warmer than what actually occurs due to influence from climatology could be a difference in surface p-type for some spots (thinking snowfall total gradient sets up around Susquehanna River except for splitting York Co. with increases in totals to the west).  Second is that Harrisburg has had totaled 4" or more (just picked 4" based off of higher end of some forecast totals around here) in the month of November 14 times on record (2018 makes 130th November on record) with most but not all of those 14 months have had that fall in one event.  Last time Harrisburg reported 4" or more in a day was back-to-back on November 10 & 11, 1987.  Fun stat about November 1987 is that it was Harrisburg's snowiest month of the season totaling 9.7" as December-January-February-March had 3.6", 9.6", 2.8", 1.0", respectively .  Third and final, for now, precipitable water values are looking to be north of 1" for most of us which is crazy high for around here when at least a wintry mix is involved.  With the right dynamics that is a ton of moisture for a deformation band to feed off of for some crazy rates if temps cooperate!

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1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

i need my eyes adjusted or lasik redone cause most of us live in 2-5ville (per map)

 

or maybe im just a misfit......:P

Me too. The way Canderson worded it, I expected to see almost all of CTP with 5-8 and perhaps Turnpike to I-78 and south in the 2-5.

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49 minutes ago, djr5001 said:

Hey all - just a few interesting items of note that I have for this event.  First one is that I am curious to see how "modeled vs actual" obs are going to play out for the temperature profile as surface temps are going to be running about 20 degrees below normal during the day during the initial thump at the start of the event tomorrow.  Models running a degree or two warmer than what actually occurs due to influence from climatology could be a difference in surface p-type for some spots (thinking snowfall total gradient sets up around Susquehanna River except for splitting York Co. with increases in totals to the west).  Second is that Harrisburg has had totaled 4" or more (just picked 4" based off of higher end of some forecast totals around here) in the month of November 14 times on record (2018 makes 130th November on record) with most but not all of those 14 months have had that fall in one event.  Last time Harrisburg reported 4" or more in a day was back-to-back on November 10 & 11, 1987.  Fun stat about November 1987 is that it was Harrisburg's snowiest month of the season totaling 9.7" as December-January-February-March had 3.6", 9.6", 2.8", 1.0", respectively .  Third and final, for now, precipitable water values are looking to be north of 1" for most of us which is crazy high for around here when at least a wintry mix is involved.  With the right dynamics that is a ton of moisture for a deformation band to feed off of for some crazy rates if temps cooperate!

Uhh...no FUN in that pal.  BOOO

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