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Central PA Fall 2018

pasnownut

By pasnownut,
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

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MAG5035

MAG5035

Posted
Posted

I just got back from being away the last several days last night and my laptop has also been out of commission lately so that’s why i’ve seemed fairly quiet but I’ve been watching this threat materialize on the models and I like what I see. 

The track is a good one for C-PA snows... and given the progged high overhead this storm will be attacking and the storm’s gulf origins, this could be quite a robust winter storm. I think wintry precip for most or all of us in here is a pretty good certainty but how much mixing occurs and where is what will need to be sorted out the next day or so. 

As it looks right now, I’m pretty confident of a warning level snow threat in the Laurel’s and north central elevations. The adjacent central mountains and AOO-UNV-IPT corridor could go either way but it would probably be a more advisory type elevational snowfall with some mixing. I could also see warning totals in this region if this ends up on the colder side.. but likely for folks at higher elevation. The Sus Valley also looks to see a slushy 1–2 with a lot of mixing attm. What I would want to keep an eye on is the initial precip shield. A front running shield of moderate to heavy precip with the high in place over NE and wet bulbing would likely make for a front end thump for even the Sus Valley. And I’m willing to bet colder given the high position and storm track. Whatever happens it’s always nice to see threats on the table right off the bat. 

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Eskimo Joe

Eskimo Joe

Posted
Posted

Latest CTP AFD:

Quote 

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

AS THE HIGH MOVES RIGHT OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING OF THE GROUND WILL OCCUR (AT LEAST DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF OF THE NIGHT) WITH WINDS STAYING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AND JUST A THIN VEIL OF CIRROSTRATUS SPREADING
NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

SOUTHEASTERLY LLVL FLOW WILL INCREASE QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS OF THE STATE AS THE
EAST/WEST PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. CLOUDS WILL ALSO
LOWER/THICK TO AN ALTOSTRATUS DECK ACROSS THAT PART OF THE
STATE.

A THICKENING, MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL THEN OVERSPREAD THE
ENTIRE CWA THURSDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY PRECIPITATION NS CLOUDS
SPREADING NORTH TO NEAR THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.

PRECIP TYPE (AND SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS) WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERNS WITH 
THIS UPCOMING EARLY SEASON/HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM. LLVL WET BULB 
PROFILES ARE NEAR TO BELOW ZERO THROUGH THE ENTIRE AIR COLUMN 
THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY WITH ONLY A RELATIVELY THIN WEDGE OF 
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING AIR WITHIN ABOUT THE 3-6 KFT AGL LAYER. THE 
MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS WEAK WARM WEDGE WILL BE TO PROVIDE PERIODS OF 
SLEET (OR EVEN SOME FREEZING RAIN) IF THE SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT 
FORM THE SOUTHEAST IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER/DEEPER.  

THE ORIGINAL SFC LOW TRACKING NE ACROSS THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY 
WILL WEAKEN STEADILY AS IT HEADS NE AND OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. 
STRENGTHENING UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF A POTENT NEGATIVE TILT UPPER 
LOW MOVING FROM THE LOWER MISS VALLEY LATE WED NIGHT, TO SOUTHERN PA 
BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY WILL HELP TO QUICKLY FORM/STEADILY STRENGTHEN A 
COAST LOW THAT WILL MOVE FROM JUST EAST OF HILTON HEAD ISLAND, SC 
AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY, TO JUST OFF THE COAST OF ATLANTIC CITY AT 
12Z FRIDAY. 

AT THIS POINT, THIS LOOKS LIKE A TYPICAL NW TO SE STRATIFIED HEAVY 
WET SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MTNS, WITH MIXED WET 
SNOW/SLEET/RAIN NEAR THE I-80 CORRIDOR, AND A SHORTER PERIOD OF WET 
SNOW AT THE BEGINNING AND END OF THE EVENT (SANDWICHING A LONGER 
DURATION OF A COLD RAIN - WITH POCKETS OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN) 
ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

ALTHOUGH THICKNESSES AND LOW-LEVEL PROFILES ARE BORDERLINE WITH 
RESPECT TO TEMPS/WETBULBS, MODERATE TO HEAVY ACCUMS OF SNOW (WITH A 
LIGHT LAYER OF SLEET AND OR FREEZING RAIN) APPEAR LIKELY BASED ON A 
STRONG CONSENSUS OF STORM TRACK BETWEEN MULTIPLE OPERATIONAL MODELS 
AND ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEMS (EFS). 

LOOK FOR THE POTENTIAL OF BORDERLINE WARNING AMOUNTS OF SNOW ACROSS 
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MTNS, WITH 
ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE (DEPENDING ON THE EXACT 
LLVL THERMAL PROFILES) IN THE CENTRAL VALLEYS AND SUSQUEHANNA 
REGION. GENERALLY 1.5 INCHES OR LESS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION 
TO THE SE OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR FROM THURSDAY MIDDAY TO FRIDAY 
MORNING.

THIS TRACK OF THE SFC AND UPPER LOW WILL BE OPTIMAL FOR A ONE-TWO 
PUNCH OF WARM, THEN COLD  CONVEYOR BELT PRECIP ACROSS MOST OR ALL OF 
THE CWA.

THE STORM WILL END QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY MORNING AS THE 
UPPER TROUGH BECOMES SHEARED/FLATTENS AS IT FEELS THIS INFLUENCE OF 
THE STRONG NORTHERN STREAM WEST TO NW FLOW ALOFT.

 

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
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Posted
1 hour ago, canderson said:

That's what she sa ...

Hey I just realized the Euro is doing 6z and 18z runs now. Sweet. 

dude...thats funny.

 

yeah Euro started off hour runs a few weeks back. 

They did it as a result of all of the AM WX traffic that they were missing during 6/18z cycles and came to realize how fun happy hour can really be....specially round here. :lmao:

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MillvilleWx

MillvilleWx

Posted
Posted
Hey! Welcome back. What are you thinking for these parts?


I’m going to be totally honest, whatever Mag said in his post, I agree with 100%. Thing I’m interested in is the front end precip arriving early with the high in a good position to maximize the snowfall before any flip in the Sus Valley. We’ve seen this before back in the winters of 13-14 and 14-15. This has a similar feel. Wouldn’t be surprised if areas hung on to snow longer than expected, thus grabbing an inch or two more than forecast. Great event for mid November no matter the final outcome.


.
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canderson

canderson

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

 


I’m going to be totally honest, whatever Mag said in his post, I agree with 100%. Thing I’m interested in is the front end precip arriving early with the high in a good position to maximize the snowfall before any flip in the Sus Valley. We’ve seen this before back in the winters of 13-14 and 14-15. This has a similar feel. Wouldn’t be surprised if areas hung on to snow longer than expected, thus grabbing an inch or two more than forecast. Great event for mid November no matter the final outcome.


.

 

Good to see you here. How’s life in Midland?

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MillvilleWx

MillvilleWx

Posted
Posted
Good to see you here. How’s life in Midland?


Hey man. Texas is great. Getting used to Midland life. Wife and I work a lot, but we go out and explore when we can. It’s a working town where money can be had. We have fun outside the town with day trips and what not. Job is fantastic. I couldn’t be happier to be working for NWS and my office especially. Currently in the middle of Radar training with certification end of February in Norman. I’ll actually be back in the area for 10-11 days in mid to late January. Hoping to see a monster snow storm while I’m back there. I will be hoping for the best lol


.
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Blizzard of 93

Blizzard of 93

Posted
Posted

Today was another great day of model runs for our first CTP wide winter weather event!

CTP will probably be hoisting some Winter Storm watches by later tonight or tomorrow morning.

ABC-27 out of Harrisburg, which has typically been conservative with snow forecasts over the years, has a very aggressive snow map out, with 3-7 inches of snow for many of us.

 

603F2288-32A2-4EF9-B461-9E5D7A66C361.jpeg

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pasnownut

pasnownut

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Posted

DO NOT LOOK AT 18z NAM SNOW MAP......

JUST DONT TEASE YOURSELF.  

I have to say i'm a little surprised at some of the numbers I'm seeing.  Just worried the the middle part that is taint...even to WSPT knocks back/out some of the numbers being spit out.  Ya'll know me well enough to know that i want it more than many.  If midlevels continue to trend cooler and warm nose gets further supressed as the HP is showing some staying power on recent runs for front end as alluded to by Mr. Mag, I'll be glad to bud my way onto the front of the snow train.  

I think part of me just cant believe we go from monsoon season straight to winter....but hey...I wont complain one bit.

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Itstrainingtime

Itstrainingtime

Posted
Posted
56 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Today was another great day of model runs for our first CTP wide winter weather event!

CTP will probably be hoisting some Winter Storm watches by later tonight or tomorrow morning.

ABC-27 out of Harrisburg, which has typically been conservative with snow forecasts over the years, has a very aggressive snow map out, with 3-7 inches of snow for many of us.

 

603F2288-32A2-4EF9-B461-9E5D7A66C361.jpeg

Wow! Even I'm in the 3"-7" range. If I get over 3" I'll do a little dance, make a little love, and get down tonight...

Nah. I'll just be giddy. 

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pasnownut

pasnownut

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Posted

0z NAM now rolling in and has backed of a bit on happy hour totals but still has us solidly in the game.  700's look better for SE PA and would indicate a little colder column to support sleet IR and less rain.  If this trend continues, it wouldnt surprise to see totals bump down here.  

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pasnownut

pasnownut

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Posted

0z GFS backed off on qpf distribution and is reflected on all important snow panels.  700's/850's were a tick better (to my eye).  Little less warm intrusion, but still not quite enough for LSV.  Hoping bias comes into play and it cools as we get closer.  Just speaking verbatim and not pooh poohin by any means.  Anxious to see what the Euro shares overnight. 

Still looking forward to seeing first flakes for the season (as well as tomorrow's runs).  Poconos wins on this run.

Night all.

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Blizzard of 93

Blizzard of 93

Posted
Posted

I just looked over the 12z EPS run from earlier today. It was impressive even for mid winter standards. The mean amounts ranged from near 6 inches of snow near Lancaster to around 8 inches near Harrisburg & then over 10 inches back towards State College.

Even more outstanding was the fact that ALL of the 51 EPS ensemble members had significant snowfall for all of CTP.

Hopefully the 0z Euro & EPS continue to deliver! 

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