Eskimo Joe Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 This is pretty damn good for early November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Harrisburg had 8.5” on Oct 26 a few years ago. It can definitely pile up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 It's been cold enough lately to eliminate the "ground is too warm to lay on" myth that idiots like to talk about on Facebook. Some decent ratios early on could really allow for some accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 3 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Look at the Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 I just got back from being away the last several days last night and my laptop has also been out of commission lately so that’s why i’ve seemed fairly quiet but I’ve been watching this threat materialize on the models and I like what I see. The track is a good one for C-PA snows... and given the progged high overhead this storm will be attacking and the storm’s gulf origins, this could be quite a robust winter storm. I think wintry precip for most or all of us in here is a pretty good certainty but how much mixing occurs and where is what will need to be sorted out the next day or so. As it looks right now, I’m pretty confident of a warning level snow threat in the Laurel’s and north central elevations. The adjacent central mountains and AOO-UNV-IPT corridor could go either way but it would probably be a more advisory type elevational snowfall with some mixing. I could also see warning totals in this region if this ends up on the colder side.. but likely for folks at higher elevation. The Sus Valley also looks to see a slushy 1–2 with a lot of mixing attm. What I would want to keep an eye on is the initial precip shield. A front running shield of moderate to heavy precip with the high in place over NE and wet bulbing would likely make for a front end thump for even the Sus Valley. And I’m willing to bet colder given the high position and storm track. Whatever happens it’s always nice to see threats on the table right off the bat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 NWS is getting aboard...What could go wrong in the next couple days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Latest CTP AFD: Quote LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS THE HIGH MOVES RIGHT OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING OF THE GROUND WILL OCCUR (AT LEAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF OF THE NIGHT) WITH WINDS STAYING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND JUST A THIN VEIL OF CIRROSTRATUS SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. SOUTHEASTERLY LLVL FLOW WILL INCREASE QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS OF THE STATE AS THE EAST/WEST PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. CLOUDS WILL ALSO LOWER/THICK TO AN ALTOSTRATUS DECK ACROSS THAT PART OF THE STATE. A THICKENING, MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL THEN OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWA THURSDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY PRECIPITATION NS CLOUDS SPREADING NORTH TO NEAR THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. PRECIP TYPE (AND SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS) WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERNS WITH THIS UPCOMING EARLY SEASON/HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM. LLVL WET BULB PROFILES ARE NEAR TO BELOW ZERO THROUGH THE ENTIRE AIR COLUMN THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY WITH ONLY A RELATIVELY THIN WEDGE OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING AIR WITHIN ABOUT THE 3-6 KFT AGL LAYER. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS WEAK WARM WEDGE WILL BE TO PROVIDE PERIODS OF SLEET (OR EVEN SOME FREEZING RAIN) IF THE SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT FORM THE SOUTHEAST IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER/DEEPER. THE ORIGINAL SFC LOW TRACKING NE ACROSS THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY WILL WEAKEN STEADILY AS IT HEADS NE AND OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. STRENGTHENING UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF A POTENT NEGATIVE TILT UPPER LOW MOVING FROM THE LOWER MISS VALLEY LATE WED NIGHT, TO SOUTHERN PA BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY WILL HELP TO QUICKLY FORM/STEADILY STRENGTHEN A COAST LOW THAT WILL MOVE FROM JUST EAST OF HILTON HEAD ISLAND, SC AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY, TO JUST OFF THE COAST OF ATLANTIC CITY AT 12Z FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT, THIS LOOKS LIKE A TYPICAL NW TO SE STRATIFIED HEAVY WET SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MTNS, WITH MIXED WET SNOW/SLEET/RAIN NEAR THE I-80 CORRIDOR, AND A SHORTER PERIOD OF WET SNOW AT THE BEGINNING AND END OF THE EVENT (SANDWICHING A LONGER DURATION OF A COLD RAIN - WITH POCKETS OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN) ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THICKNESSES AND LOW-LEVEL PROFILES ARE BORDERLINE WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS/WETBULBS, MODERATE TO HEAVY ACCUMS OF SNOW (WITH A LIGHT LAYER OF SLEET AND OR FREEZING RAIN) APPEAR LIKELY BASED ON A STRONG CONSENSUS OF STORM TRACK BETWEEN MULTIPLE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEMS (EFS). LOOK FOR THE POTENTIAL OF BORDERLINE WARNING AMOUNTS OF SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MTNS, WITH ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE (DEPENDING ON THE EXACT LLVL THERMAL PROFILES) IN THE CENTRAL VALLEYS AND SUSQUEHANNA REGION. GENERALLY 1.5 INCHES OR LESS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TO THE SE OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR FROM THURSDAY MIDDAY TO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS TRACK OF THE SFC AND UPPER LOW WILL BE OPTIMAL FOR A ONE-TWO PUNCH OF WARM, THEN COLD CONVEYOR BELT PRECIP ACROSS MOST OR ALL OF THE CWA. THE STORM WILL END QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES SHEARED/FLATTENS AS IT FEELS THIS INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG NORTHERN STREAM WEST TO NW FLOW ALOFT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 I’m liking that front end thump too.Saw that a lot in 2013-2014. Always over performed.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 28 minutes ago, Superstorm said: I’m liking that front end thump too. Saw that a lot in 2013-2014. Always over performed. . That's what she sa ... Hey I just realized the Euro is doing 6z and 18z runs now. Sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Who’s up for some snow around here? . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 I'm up for any exciting weather lol.. rain, sleet, snow, frz...wind...anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 13, 2018 Author Share Posted November 13, 2018 1 hour ago, canderson said: That's what she sa ... Hey I just realized the Euro is doing 6z and 18z runs now. Sweet. dude...thats funny. yeah Euro started off hour runs a few weeks back. They did it as a result of all of the AM WX traffic that they were missing during 6/18z cycles and came to realize how fun happy hour can really be....specially round here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 13, 2018 Author Share Posted November 13, 2018 19 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: I'm up for any exciting weather lol.. rain, sleet, snow, frz...wind...anything. im up for mainly snow.... lets house swap for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Lol ok, but you aren't out of excitement yet...banding could set up in the right spots and give surprises...I think it may be better to be in best qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 32 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Who’s up for some snow around here? . Hey! Welcome back. What are you thinking for these parts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Hey! Welcome back. What are you thinking for these parts?I’m going to be totally honest, whatever Mag said in his post, I agree with 100%. Thing I’m interested in is the front end precip arriving early with the high in a good position to maximize the snowfall before any flip in the Sus Valley. We’ve seen this before back in the winters of 13-14 and 14-15. This has a similar feel. Wouldn’t be surprised if areas hung on to snow longer than expected, thus grabbing an inch or two more than forecast. Great event for mid November no matter the final outcome. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 6 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: I’m going to be totally honest, whatever Mag said in his post, I agree with 100%. Thing I’m interested in is the front end precip arriving early with the high in a good position to maximize the snowfall before any flip in the Sus Valley. We’ve seen this before back in the winters of 13-14 and 14-15. This has a similar feel. Wouldn’t be surprised if areas hung on to snow longer than expected, thus grabbing an inch or two more than forecast. Great event for mid November no matter the final outcome. . Good to see you here. How’s life in Midland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 WGAL info graphic shows 3-5 from the river on west with the cash-in of 5-8 reaching just east of the I-99 corridor toward the lake. Party at MAG's place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Good to see you here. How’s life in Midland?Hey man. Texas is great. Getting used to Midland life. Wife and I work a lot, but we go out and explore when we can. It’s a working town where money can be had. We have fun outside the town with day trips and what not. Job is fantastic. I couldn’t be happier to be working for NWS and my office especially. Currently in the middle of Radar training with certification end of February in Norman. I’ll actually be back in the area for 10-11 days in mid to late January. Hoping to see a monster snow storm while I’m back there. I will be hoping for the best lol . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Today was another great day of model runs for our first CTP wide winter weather event! CTP will probably be hoisting some Winter Storm watches by later tonight or tomorrow morning. ABC-27 out of Harrisburg, which has typically been conservative with snow forecasts over the years, has a very aggressive snow map out, with 3-7 inches of snow for many of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 14, 2018 Author Share Posted November 14, 2018 DO NOT LOOK AT 18z NAM SNOW MAP...... JUST DONT TEASE YOURSELF. I have to say i'm a little surprised at some of the numbers I'm seeing. Just worried the the middle part that is taint...even to WSPT knocks back/out some of the numbers being spit out. Ya'll know me well enough to know that i want it more than many. If midlevels continue to trend cooler and warm nose gets further supressed as the HP is showing some staying power on recent runs for front end as alluded to by Mr. Mag, I'll be glad to bud my way onto the front of the snow train. I think part of me just cant believe we go from monsoon season straight to winter....but hey...I wont complain one bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 56 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Today was another great day of model runs for our first CTP wide winter weather event! CTP will probably be hoisting some Winter Storm watches by later tonight or tomorrow morning. ABC-27 out of Harrisburg, which has typically been conservative with snow forecasts over the years, has a very aggressive snow map out, with 3-7 inches of snow for many of us. Wow! Even I'm in the 3"-7" range. If I get over 3" I'll do a little dance, make a little love, and get down tonight... Nah. I'll just be giddy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 14, 2018 Author Share Posted November 14, 2018 0z NAM now rolling in and has backed of a bit on happy hour totals but still has us solidly in the game. 700's look better for SE PA and would indicate a little colder column to support sleet IR and less rain. If this trend continues, it wouldnt surprise to see totals bump down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 The 0z NAM looks great! The NAM 0z Kuchera ratio map actually ups the ante for snow in the LSV. Here are both the 18z & 0z NAM with both Kuchera & 10-1 maps to compare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Eric Horst is impressed with this setup fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 14, 2018 Author Share Posted November 14, 2018 0z GFS backed off on qpf distribution and is reflected on all important snow panels. 700's/850's were a tick better (to my eye). Little less warm intrusion, but still not quite enough for LSV. Hoping bias comes into play and it cools as we get closer. Just speaking verbatim and not pooh poohin by any means. Anxious to see what the Euro shares overnight. Still looking forward to seeing first flakes for the season (as well as tomorrow's runs). Poconos wins on this run. Night all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 The 0z GFS & Canadian continue to bring the goods for CTP! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 I just looked over the 12z EPS run from earlier today. It was impressive even for mid winter standards. The mean amounts ranged from near 6 inches of snow near Lancaster to around 8 inches near Harrisburg & then over 10 inches back towards State College. Even more outstanding was the fact that ALL of the 51 EPS ensemble members had significant snowfall for all of CTP. Hopefully the 0z Euro & EPS continue to deliver! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 00z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flatheadsickness Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 that's almost deep enough for my Johnson . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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